Sunday SITREP (24-29 June 2024)

Welcome to The Intel Brief’s second Sunday SITREP - a weekly update of activity from the First Island Chain.

Time to read: 5 Minutes

Reporting Period: 24-29 June 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• Taiwan experienced 134 aerial and 39 naval incursions by the PLA from 24 - 29 June.

• China is continuing to grow its fleet of advanced fighters, particularly the J-20.

• The PLA Navy conducted amphibious landing drills on islands in the South Chine Sea.

• Japan tracked a PLA WZ-7 drone as it surveilled American ships for the first time.

• President Xi removed two former defense ministers from the communist party as his long-standing policy of purges continues.

PLA Aggression In Numbers

Below is a chart depicting PLA Navy and PLA Air Force incursions into Taiwanese territory during the period of 24 - 29 June 2024.

(Data courtesy of Taiwanese Ministry of Defense)

China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter By The Numbers
24 June 2024

The Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter is China’s premiere air-to-air fighter and has the potential to rival American F-22’s and F-35’s. Beijing claims that in 2022, 50 of these fighters were made, and 100 were made in 2023. China’s fleet of J-20’s could be as much as 300, but National Interest claims the PLA Air Force is aiming to have 1,000 by 2030.

Why This Matters

Advanced aircraft are part of China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, aimed at denying United States military access to the First Island Chain in the event of conflict with Taiwan.

A fleet of 5th generation fighters is core to this strategy, along with the construction of a blue water navy, and advanced submarine force, and an advanced rocket force.

Want To Read More?

• Post by National Interest

• More about China’s A2/AD strategy by TDHJ

China Conducts Amphibious Landing Drills
24 June 2024

On 24 June, the Chinese state media outlet CCTV reported that three ships (the Danxiashan, the Laotieshan, and the Lushan) conducted a multi-day exercise somewhere in the South China Sea.

The three ships are dated vessels, intended to bring ground personnel and armor support to shore during amphibious assaults.

Why This Matters

This event adds to high tensions. Last week, the Chinese Coast Guard rammed a Filipino vessel conducting a resupply mission to personnel in the Second Thomas Shoal (a part of the hotly contested Spratly Islands). Eight Filipino’s were injured during the incident. The U.S. has a mutual defense pact with the Philippines.

Decisionmakers fear that in a conflict scenario, the PLA Navy could quickly deploy troops to uncontested and remote island in the Pacific using ships like these.

Want To Read More?

• Post by Maritime Executive

Japan Shows Chinese Drone Surveilling U.S. And Allies
26 June 2024

On 25 June, Japan’s Ministry of Defense released data indicating the flight path of a Chinese WZ-7 UAV. The Guizhou WZ-7 “Soaring Dragon” is a high-altitude/long endurance UAV intended for prolonged surveillance operations. This is the first time the aircraft has been observed in flight.

Why This Matters

China has maintained a policy of provocation for years, and they typically use aircraft and naval vessels to do it. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea are currently conducting trilateral exercises. China was likely observing U.S. vessels that deployed to the region following Russia and North Korea’s new defense pact.

Want To Read More?

• Release by Japan’s Ministry of Defense

• Coverage by The Warzone

• The trilateral exercise by DW

Xi Continues Purges With Ousting Of Defense Chiefs
27 June 2024

On 27 June, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua stated two former defense ministers have been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party. Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe are the latest elites who President Xi Jinping has ousted in military and political purges. Xinhua stated that two were expelled from the CCP due to corruption and an unsavory shift in CCP values.

Li was ousted as defense secretary in March when Xi began his third term.

Why This Matters

When Xi first took office in 2012, he began with purges to send a message; that China was moving in one direction and that progress depended on the highest levels of strength, loyalty, and uniformity from political and military elites.

Xi has continued with that message, showing that anyone who cannot work with the “Cult of Xi” is of no use to achieving China’s strategic goals. Continued military reforms indicate that Xi is unsatisfied with PLA developments and their lack of capabilities necessary to seize Taiwan.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NBC News

End Report

That concludes the second Sunday SITREP. I hope you enjoyed it. If you liked it, please consider sending it to a friend.

P.S. What do you think about the Taiwan scenario? Tell me in the poll below.

Thanks! See you tomorrow for the Monday morning brief.