Sunday SITREP (28 July - 3 August)

Weekly update of activity in the First Island Chain.

Author

Nick
August 04, 2024

Good morning,

Here is another Sunday SITREP. It has all of last week’s major updates from the world’s most hotly contested region - the Indo-Pacific’s First Island Chain.

Reporting Period: 28 July - 3 August

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. China threatened the Philippines with an “arms race.” China said the continued deployment of American SM-6 Tomahawk missiles to the Philippines could result in a similar response by the PLA.

2. Japan and the United States launched exercise Resolute Dragon. 3,000 Marines and sailors will participate in the exercise which aims to boost American and Japanese security cooperation.

3. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to pursue further development and reforms. Xi wants the PLA to be a state-of-the-art fighting force for their 100 year anniversary.

4. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) assesses that “gray zone” tactics will dominate strategic competition between nations through 2030.

Missed the last two briefs? Monday, Thursday.

Read my primer in The Havok Journal about China’s Nine-Dash Line; a key concept behind their aggression in the region.

PLA Activity Detected Around Taiwan

28 July to 3 August 2024

PLA Air Force: 121 aircraft

PLA Navy: 76 vessels

China Threatens Philippines With Arms Race, Heightened Tensions

On 27 July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Philippines that the deployment of American Typhon missile systems to their country could lead to increased tensions and an arms race.

Typhon missile systems are a launcher for SM-6 Tomahawk missiles. They were deployed to the Philippines for previous exercises but the Filipino government has not clarified when they might be removed.

Regarding the supposed reference of Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the missiles, all I can really say is that, first, these missiles are meant for our own defensive capabilities, our own ability to improve our defensive deterrence, and they're not meant for any offensive purposes. So I really can't see on that basis how it would lead to an arms race.

Foreign Secretary Manalo

Why This Matters

The recent incident at the Second Thomas Shoal has deteriorated Sino-Filipino relations. China and the Philippines tried to come to terms about how the Filipino military could access the shoal and resupply Marines there, but it resulted in a diplomatic breakdown.

Want To Read More?

Japan And United States Launch Exercise Resolute Dragon 24

On 28 July, nearly 3,000 Marines and sailors with III Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) joined the Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) for Resolute Dragon 24. The exercise goes until 7 August.

This is the fourth year of Resolute Dragon, which aims to improve cooperation between USINDOPACOM forces and the JSDF. The exercise takes place in various Japanese prefectures including Okinawa.

The Marine Corps deployed an advanced AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar (G/ATOR) to Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island which sits 67 miles east of Taiwan.

Why This Matters

Japan is a major pillar of collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Japan hosts more than 50,000 U.S. military personnel, and they have sought closer alignment with us due to growing Chinese aggression.

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Xi Jinping Calls For Military Reform, Pursuit Of Century-Long Goals

On 31 July, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated the PLA, while strong and loyal, requires further reform. Xi’s remarks were made during a study session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Political Bureau of the Central Committee. On 1 August, Xi’s vision was published in an article in Qiushi, a CCP magazine. Some highlights:

  1. Preserve Political Integrity: Xi reinforced that “the barrel of the gun” must remain with the CCP. Xi emphasized that the CCP’s absolute leadership over the military is necessary to build advanced competence and combat effectiveness, and that disloyalty leads to weakness.

  2. Strength Through Reform: In July, at the Third Plenum of the CCP’s 20th Central Committee, Xi declared the need for military reform in order to meet the PLA’s 100 year anniversary goals.

    • Be a world-class military

    • Conduct regular joint operations across PLA “ 4 arms and 4 services”

    • Integrate advanced technologies and weapons systems

    • Develop advanced capabilities, such as long-range fires and robust air and coastal defenses

  3. Defensive Posture: Xi wants China to continue to present itself as a defensive state who contributes to global peace. Xi wants China to work closer with regional militaries, as well as international organizations like the UN. Xi does not feel China’s posture against Taiwan and the Philippines are contradictory.

Why This Matters

These are all factors that indicate Xi’s desire to fully “unify” the Chinese nation (i.e. seize Taiwan). Additionally, the rhetoric being used is typical of Chinese deception. Xi would have the world believe that the CCP and PLA are docile and peace-loving, when in fact they crave hegemonic status.

Comment: Xi is Chairman of the Central Military Committee (military governing body) and General Secretary of the CCP Central Committee (political governing body). Absolute control by the CCP implies absolute control by Xi.

Book recommendation: The Hundred Year Marathon

Want To Read More?

  • Translated coverage by Xinhua (this is a Chinese source)

  • China’s 2027 PLA goals by Global Times (this is a Chinese state media source)

  • Coverage of Xi’s article by Xinhua (this is a Chinese source)

ODNI Views “Gray Zone” Competition As Prevailing Strategy Through 2030

In an July assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) recently identified how “Gray Zone” activity will dominate strategic competition through 2030. Here is how:

1. Growing frequency, diversity, and effectiveness of coercion and subversion. Russia and China will look to employ information warfare tactics across growing domains (AI, Social Media).

2. Gray Zone and unconventional activity will grow to avert conventional war. Russia, China and North Korea do not want open war with the United States, so they will grow their security collaborations.

3. Weakness could lead to growth. The United States and allies are not prepared for new Gray Zone activities, which could lead to closer cooperation with global and private sector partners.

Why This Matters

The ODNI feels that global competition - and the strategies used to pursue positive-sum gains - are becoming more complex and more frequent. The ODNI wants to prepare the United States for these new threats so that we might gain advantages through opportunities.

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End Brief

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