Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. I hope you’ve had a good week. Before you start the day, let’s catch up on some critical updates from the week.

Reporting Period: 10-13 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Taiwan Warns Of Chinese Influence, Sabotage As Report Shows Growing Support For “One China” Principle

Summary
As the CCP’s “One China” principle gains international support, Taiwan has warned that the United Front is altering its operational model to focus on integrating outlying islands into the mainland. The CCP’s coercive effort is intended to disjoint Taiwan to achieve non-violent reunification.

Findings

• United Front’s New Model: On 10 February, Taipei Times reported that China’s United Front is using a new approach to coerce Taiwan’s long-term integration into the mainland. A Taiwanese researcher suggested that the United Front is focusing on integrating Taiwanese outlying islands — Kinmen and Matsu — into a “one country, two systems” scenario, much like Hong Kong.
  The research says the United Front is focusing on issuing Chinese ID cards to Kinmen and Matsu natives. The CCP is also promoting a “Kinmen-Xiamen Common Living Circle,” and a transportation network between Kinmen and Xiamen’s airport.

• Legislative Sabotage: In Taiwan, there is a “nationwide recall movement.” In early February, 19 recall efforts against KMT politicians were submitted to Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) due to various KMT legislators having affiliations with the CCP. In retaliation, the KMT submitted 13 recalls against DPP officials.
  A recall vote is a procedure that allows voters to remove an elected official from office before their term ends.

• Support for “One China” Principle: Financial Review reports that the majority of the countries supporting China’s imperialist ambitions are in the “Global South” and have granted Beijing “access to critical natural resources and financed ports and other transport projects” through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Why This Matters
The reports and developments indicate that the United Front’s coercive actions are yielding positive effects as the PRC pursues non-violent reunification with Taiwan. Specifically, the United Front seems to find success in bribing KMT officials and Taiwanese citizens looking for economic gain.

While China is developing the PLA to be capable of forcefully seizing Taiwan, the United Front is tasked with pursuing the subversion and capitulation of pro-independence officials and parties from Taiwan’s government. Currently, this means the DPP. In doing so, pro-CCP officials could eventually establish a government, control the Legislative and Executive Yuan, and diplomatically align with China — effectively inviting CCP rule over the island.

A secondary consideration is that given the U.S. ambiguity over its willingness to defend Kinmen and Matsu, future Chinese operations against Taiwan may not be as cut and dry as previously thought. Mainstream opinion suggests a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will include the support and capabilities of all of China’s “Four Services, Four Arms,” including conventional strikes, naval blockades, digital warfare, and troop landings. However, much like Russia launched a coercive and deniable invasion of Crimea with “Little Green Men” in 2014, China could do so to Taiwan’s outlying islands, creating a decision dilemma for Washington and Taipei who would likely be unable to justify retaliating over those territories due to the risk of starting a regional war.

Sources: Lowy Institute, Financial Review, Taipei Times, ANI News

U.S. Diplomats Meet With European Counterparts

Summary
On 12 February, Secretary of State Rubio met with some of his European counterparts before heading to the Munich Security Conference. Today, 13 February, Secretary of Defense Hegseth is meeting with NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

Findings

• Secretary of State Rubio: On 12 February, Rubio will arrive in Paris to meet with counterparts from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Ukraine. From 14-16 February he will attend the Munich Security Conference.

• Secretary of Defense Hegseth: Experts and media outlets are wagering what Hegseth’s agenda will be when he meets with his NATO counterparts.

  • NATO: On 28 January, Hegseth spoke with Secretary-General Rutte, and the pair agreed that the alliance needs to be “stronger, more lethal.” Both want higher allied defense spending and growth in the defense industry.
    Hegseth previously said NATO — as it is currently operating — “is not an alliance” but a “defense arrangement for Europe, paid for and underwritten by the United States.”

• GDP Spending: RFE/RL reports that NATO member states think spending requirements are too low and that Hegseth will guide the alliance to reach a new target of around 3-3.5%.

• Troop Deployments: The U.S. has 100,000 troops in Europe and there is speculation that they could deploy eastward ahead of Ukraine peace negotiations and increased Russia hybrid warfare schemes.

• Ukraine: Defense Minister Umerov will attend the ministers meeting. He is expected to provide an update on Ukraine’s war effort and what future U.S. and European aid contributions may look like.
  On 10 February, Reuters reported that Trump will ask European allies to buy more American weapons to send to Ukraine.

Why This Matters
Trump’s high-level officials have been focused on South America, the Pacific, and the Middle East, leaving European leaders scrambling to determine whether the U.S. will be EU and NATO-friendly or revisionist under Trump. This weekend should clarify most of that and — if European and American officials prove amicable to one another — establish the beginning of Ukraine peace negotiations.

Sources: AP News, Sky News, RFE/RL, Reuters, Euromaidan Press

Trump Speaks With Putin, Names Negotiation Team; Russia Alludes Peace Conditions For Ukraine

Summary
Despite the Kremlin stating on 10 February that U.S.-Russian relations are “on the brink of a breakup,” President Trump has spoken with Putin and named his team for peace negotiations. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister recently issued conditions for peace in Ukraine.

Findings

• Russia’s Conditions: According to Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, Ukraine must meet these conditions before Russia can begin negotiations:

  • Abandon NATO accession

  • Withdraw troops from Luhansk Oblast (UA)

  • Withdraw troops from Donetsk Oblast (UA)

  • Withdraw troops from Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UA)

  • Withdraw troops from Kherson Oblast (UA)

  Russia has been waging offensive operations in support of seizing and holding ground in Ukraine’s eastern territories. Ukraine has been committing more forces to its foothold in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

• Russian Stockpiles: A Newsweek article claims Russia has depleted “more than half” of its military equipment and will not be able to sustain its current offensive posture in the long term.

• Munich Security Conference: NBC News reported that President Zelenskyy and other high-profile diplomats will clarify details on negotiations at this conference.

• Ukraine’s Conditions: Zelenskyy previously stated that Ukraine wants either NATO membership or nuclear weapons. Now, he says Kyiv is ready for negotiations so long as the U.S. and Europe provide security guarantees.
  On 12 February, speaking on Ukraine’s control of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Zelenskyy stated “We will swap one territory for another.” Zelenskyy also highlighted that there can be no legitimate security guarantees without U.S. backing and that UN peacekeepers would be ineffective in Ukraine.

Why This Matters
Mainstream criticism and coverage suggest President Trump is making some progress with peace negotiations on a bilateral level, leaving Europe and Ukraine concerned that Trump and Putin are making headway and leaving other parties “in the dark.”

However, by firmly establishing Russia and Ukraine's desires and goals, Trump is establishing the baseline for negotiations. With firm “wants,” parties can convene and begin discussing concessions and compromises.

It is possible that at the Munich conference, U.S. and Ukrainian officials will announce—or propose to Russia—a time and place for the first negotiations.

Sources: NBC News, Newsweek, ABC News, The Guardian

Hamas Holding On To Hostages, Risks Undoing Ceasefire

Summary
On 10 February, Hamas announced that it suspended the planned hostage release on Saturday, 15 February. Following the remarks, President Trump issued an ultimatum. Israel also warned that the ceasefire could fall through entirely if the hostages are not released as planned.

Findings

• Hamas Announcement: Following Trump and Netanyahu’s press conference where the pair announced occupation and reconstruction plans for Gaza, Hamas announced it was postponing the release of hostages in accordance with the agreed-upon ceasefire. Despite announcing it would not release hostages, Hamas states Israel is responsible for “any complications or delays.”

• Trump’s Announcement: Trump issued an ultimatum to Hamas — release hostages as planned or the U.S. and Israel will cancel the ceasefire. Trump’s statement suggests that if hostages remain in Hamas custody, Israel and the U.S. will retaliate with strikes against Hamas personnel and facilities.

• Netanyahu Statement: After meeting with his cabinet on 11 February, Netanyahu stated Israel would withdraw from the ceasefire if Hamas “does not return our hostages by Saturday.” Currently, 76 hostages remain in Hamas’ custody. Netanyahu said is the ceasefire is violated, the IDF will resume operations until Hamas is defeated.

• Ceasefire: The Gaza ceasefire is currently in “Phase One” and will remain there until the agreed-upon hostages and prisoners are exchanged. A second phase to the ceasefire is being negotiated and allegedly includes conditions to end the war permanently. If Hamas holds on to hostages and the ceasefire falls through, it is very likely negotiations would have to start from square one.

Why This Matters
The current crisis in Gaza — which is overshadowed by Trump and Netanyahu’s plans for occupation and reconstruction — is at a tipping point. It is very likely that if the ceasefire falls through on Saturday, 15 February, the war will resume. If this happens, Netanyahu has already committed to carrying out military operations until Hamas is defeated indefinitely.

Consider this in relation to Iran, which has still vowed to retaliate against Israel for October 2024 airstrikes on its territory and is back and forth on its willingness to negotiate denuclearization with Trump. A resumption of hostilities between Hamas and Israel could lead to renewed support from Iran and other regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Sources: BBC, CNN, Axios

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

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See you Sunday,

Nick