Good morning,

Today I have an interesting brief for you.

This one is extensive. Give yourself about 7 minutes.

Reporting Period: 11-14 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Trump Makes Cabinet Announcements, Meets With President Biden

President-elect Donald Trump recently took to Truth Social to state that any Senator seeking the majority leader position should support recess appointments. If the Senate were to agree to this, it would mean Trump could appoint members to his cabinet without a full Senate vetting process.

Trump stated that the goal is to appoint qualified personnel in a timely manner and to avoid intentional vetting delays that hinder his administration’s effectiveness.

Trump intends to make the following appointments (NOTE: These are subject to change and a vetting process):

On 13 November, Trump met with President Biden at the White House to commit to a smooth transition of power. Following the address to media, Trump and Biden met in private to discuss the transition.

Why This Matters

Congress can enter pro forma sessions in which bodies formally meet but conduct no legislative business. This tactic has been frequently used by Congress to block presidential appointments during recess, a precedent Trump is trying to avert.

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), a frontrunner for Senate majority leader, endorsed Trump’s desire to make recess appointments. Members of the House who are appointed will be replaced by voting via special election in their districts. For senators who are appointed to a cabinet, their replacement is state-dependent. Typically, a governor can replace them or a replacement will be chosen via special election.

While the media are portraying Trump’s request as an overreach, myriad crises increase its likelihood of approval. In Trump’s first one-hundred days he will have to address immigration, energy production, the Russo-Ukrainian war, Israel’s wars, and a potential shift in China policy.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NBC News

• Coverage by CNN

• Trump and Biden meeting by Fox News

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Germany Set For Snap Elections, MPs Call For AfD Ban

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to hold a vote of no confidence in parliament on 16 December 2024. Germany’s major parties, notably the SPD and CDU/CSU union, have agreed to hold federal snap elections on 23 February 2025.

Background: On 6 November, following the firing of his finance minister, Scholz announced the collapse of his coalition government and scheduled a vote of no confidence in parliament for January 2025. Germany faces myriad crises such as the economy, immigration, and a worsening security environment. The failure by coalition ministers to establish a feasible economic plan was the “final straw” that led to the collapse.

On 13 November, more than 100 members of the Bundestag signed a petition calling for the ban of the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), an anti-immigration and EU/NATO reformist party. The petition was submitted by CDU member Marco Wanderwitz.

The AfD is under formal surveillance by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence service. They are under surveillance for far-right ideology and rhetoric.

By formally outlawing the AfD, Germany risks political unrest or violence due to the suppression of political ideology and the removal of democratically elected officials. Germany’s leading parties, such as the SPD and CDU, have committed to upholding a “Brandmauer,“ or “firewall” to exclude the AfD from any coalitions. The AfD currently have 76 seats in the Bundestag.

Why This Matters

Due to the poor handling of economic, energy, and immigration issues in Germany, the SPD, FDP, and Greens coalition have lost the support of German voters. Many Germans are now turning to alternative political options with some hoping for a return of CDU/CSU leadership while others are opting for more extreme representation.

If an attempt to ban the AfD fails, Germans may rush to polls in upcoming snap elections to support the AfD and turn away from Germany’s legacy political parties who many Germans now see as incompetent and corrupt.

If the ban fails, Germany’s political parties are likely to fall back on the “Brandmauer” concept to exclude the AfD from coalition.

Want To Read More?

• AfD ban by DPA

• Coverage by POLITICO

• Coverage by CNBC

• Collapse by Reuters

• Snap elections by POLITICO

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Russia Increases Offensive Operations In Kursk

On 11 November, CNN reported that Russia has amassed “tens of thousands” of troops (including North Korean soldiers) in and around the Kursk oblast. President Zelenskyy stated that more than 50,000 Russian troops are preparing major offensive operations against Ukrainian positions there, with the hopes of reclaiming the region.

ISW reported that Russia’s offensive operational tempo has increased in Kursk and that Russian strikes are 2 to 3 times higher in Kursk than in Ukraine.

Background: On 6 August 2024, Ukrainian ground forces launched and unexpected incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast. Zelenskyy initially stated that Ukraine had no intention of annexing the Kursk region and that the operation was to relieve pressure across the 600 mile frontline.

Why This Matters

Despite initial uncertainty as to whether or not Ukrainian leadership approved the operation, President Zelenskyy has repeatedly claimed the Kursk operation is living up to its original intent of restricting Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations inside of Ukraine.

However, as Donald Trump prepares to enter office there are concerns that American aid to Ukraine will dwindle and Russia will seek favorable peace terms. It is very likely that Russia is trying to reclaim Kursk to diminish any bargaining power Ukraine would possess in future negotiations. So long as Ukraine holds Kursk, Kyiv is better prepared to demand Russia return Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

Without possession of Kursk, Ukraine is at increased risk of ceding territories to Russian in a future peace deal.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by BBC

• Coverage by ISW

• Coverage by CNN

• Original Kursk incursion by CNN

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China Interfered In 41 Canadian Election Campaigns In 2019

On 12 November, Canadian journalist Sam Cooper reported that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influenced 41 Canadian campaigns in the 2019 elections through endorsements, the use of WeChat, and the mobilization of the Chinese diaspora. At the center of this project was the All-China Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese (ACFROC), a core organization in the United Front system. The CCP claims a “success rate of 20 percent” in this endeavor.

Cooper acquired a confidential 2021 report by ACFROC which details the results of this interference campaign. The report also notes Prime Minister Trudeau’s appointment of Chinese-Canadian Mary Ng as MP in Markham.

Why This Matters

While the report catalogues the effects of previous CCP efforts, it also provides recommendations for future interference campaigns and identifies opportunities to leverage Canada’s democracy in favor of the CCP.

The report suggests cultivating political talent within the Chinese diaspora, promoting ethnic and identity politics, increasing the use of WeChat to unite and mobilize Chinese-Canadians, and exploiting community organizations such as the Canada Committee 100 Society.

In the United States, the CCP’s United Front also conducts various influence campaigns, most notably through the Confucius Institute.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The Bureau

• Memo on the United Front by House Select Committee

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Houthis Attack US Ships Off Yemen Coast, US Continues Strikes In Syria

On 13 November, BBC reported that Houthi terrorists in Yemen conducted a coordinated attack on two US Navy vessels. Reportedly 8 drones and 8 anti-ship missiles were fired at the USS Stockdale and the USS Spruance. Pentagon Press Secretary General Pat Ryder stated all the projectiles were destroyed with no damages to the vessels and no casualties.

The attacks were preceded by US airstrikes on Houthi munitions depots in Yemen.

The US has also been conducting airstrikes in Syria where is its targeting Iranian proxy groups. US aircraft have hit more than nine targets in Syria following an Iran-backed rocket attack on US Patrol Base Shaddadi.

Why This Matters

CENTCOM’s strikes in Syria and Yemen indicate the United States’ continued commitment to supporting Israeli operations by restricting and diminishing the capabilities of Iran and its proxy groups.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by BBC

• Coverage by Al Jazeera

• US Middle East policy by USDOD

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

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Thank you for your continued support!

Nick