Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s take a look at some critical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 13-16 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Russia And Iran To Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement

Summary
On 13 January, media outlets reported that Iranian President Pezeshkian will meet with Russian President Putin to sign a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement. The pair will sign the agreement in Moscow tomorrow (17 January 2024).

Findings

• Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: At this moment it is uncertain what the CSP will contain. Russia signed a similar treaty with North Korea in 2024, and it includes a mutual defense clause. It is unlikely that Russia and Iran will have a mutual defense clause due to Tehran’s relationship with the US and Israel, both of whom seem increasingly willing to strike Iran for its state-sponsored terrorism activities and nuclear weapons development.
  The CSP is likely to include an expansion of bilateral military exercises (i.e. training), intelligence sharing, and the sale of military equipment.

• Bilateral Cooperation: The Moscow Times reports that Russian and Iran may expand bilateral relations and cooperation in addition to the CSP. The Kremlin stated both nations will discuss “prospects for further expansion of bilateral cooperation, including in trade and investment, transport and logistics and the humanitarian sphere, as well as topical issues on the regional and international agenda.”

• Sanctioned: Both Iran and Russia experience significant economic and political sanctions from the West. The US has sanctions on Iran due to its violations of the Iran Nuclear Deal. The EU is considering abandoning the deal and instituting sanctions.
  Last week, the US and UK instituted sanctions on Russia’s energy industry. They specifically targeted oil giants like Gazprom and the “shadow fleet” of tankers that subvert sanctions.

• Global Changes: Remember, Donald Trump takes office on 20 January and wants to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, potentially closing some of Russia’s and Iran’s window of strategic opportunities.

Why This Matters
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement marks a critical evolution in Russo-Iranian relations, and a departure from Moscow’s ability — dependent on an amicable peace negotiation with Ukraine — to reacquaint itself with the West.

The partnership is very likely to expand cooperation on defense, trade, and energy. Russia and Iran are both in the top 10 for global energy producers, meaning their grip on fossil fuels has potential to shake up global markets in the future.

The Moscow Times highlighted the North-South Transport Corridor’s central role in the partnership, indicating a mutual desire for trade growth and a means of countering Western sanctions.

Iran and Russia have both benefitted from cooperation on security. Iran provided Russia thousands of Shahed-136 drones for its war in Ukraine, and Russia has consistently provided Iran with advanced air defense systems like the S-300. What we must wait and is if the agreement will include a mutual defense clause; something I think is unlikely due to Iran’s ongoing proxy conflict with Israel.

Sources: The Moscow Times, POLITICO, VOA, TASR, EIA

EU Rift Grows As Nations Call For Russian Sanctions, Slovakia Seeks Deal With Moscow

Summary
On 13 January, a joint proposal by ten EU nations urged “further action” to target Russia’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry. Possible sanctions could also target other Russian industries or financial institutions. The proposal is preceded by US and UK sanctions to Russia’s energy sector. The proposal precedes Donald Trump’s inauguration and possible peace negotiations which are likely to favor Russia.

Findings

• Signatories: The proposal was signed by Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Czechia, Romania, and Ireland. Poland is taking a leading role in this endeavor, which is significant due to Poland currently holding control of the presidency of the EU Council, meaning it can set policy agendas in the EU.

• Goals: The signatories want the EU Commission to increase sanctions to Russia’s tanker fleet. The announcement was preceded by new US and UK sanctions against Russia’s energy industry, a move than sanctioned Russia’s entire “shadow fleet.” The sanctions could also ban imports on Russian metals and nuclear fuel in addition to targeting Russia’s banks.

• Russian Energy: Europe has been reliant on Russian energy for years. Ukraine recently shut-off its pipelines, restricting the flow of oil from Russia to Europe. However, POLITICO reports that Europe has quietly been relying on Russian natural gas. This year, the EU has already imported 472,000 metric tons of Russian LNG which is higher than pre-war averages.

• Opposition: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has vowed to oppose any new sanctions on Russia. Additionally, a Slovak parliamentary delegation led by Andrej Danko is visiting Moscow to discuss an energy deal between Moscow and Bratislava. Slovakia’s opposition to Ukraine shutting off its pipelines has caused a rift in the EU.
  In Bratislava, Slovak opposition parties have agreed to call a vote of no confidence in an attempt to remove Prime Minister Fico from office and, ultimately, get a pro-EU, pro-NATO candidate to run the country.

Why This Matters
Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, in addition to the timing of the proposal, indicate these sanctions are designed to pressure Russia into peace terms that are more favorable to Ukraine.

Despite sanctions, POLITICO reports that Russia has earned more than $200 billion from fossil fuel sales since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, indicating the industry being a major revenue stream for Russia. By reducing Russia’s energy-based income, the EU feels it can pressure Russia into being more amicable with Ukraine, potentially ensuring Kyiv its territorial integrity.

Remember, while Russia may be winning the war in Ukraine, it has come at great cost. Russia drastically increased its public spending, flooded the defense industry with public funds, and increased wages to a shrinking workforce which surged inflation. On top of that, Russia will have to invest heavily into rebuilding its military to re-establish deterrence amid tense relations with NATO.

For the proposal to pay off in this fashion, it will require two things:

• Rapid approval and adoption in the EU

• Inability for Russia to find new export partners

A final note — the EU Commission has already stated it will pursue a LNG deal with the United States once Trump enters office.

Sources: POLITICO, TASR, Reuters, TASR, TASR

NATO Launches Operation To Protect Critical Infrastructure In Baltic

Summary
On 14 January, Secretary-General Mark Rutte hosted the Summit of Baltic Sea Allies alongside Finnish and Estonian officials. Rutte announced Operation Baltic Sentry which is designed to improve NATO’s protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region.

Findings

• Baltic Sentry: Rutte stated the operation will include frigates and aircraft which will conduct maritime patrols, surveillance, and interdiction if necessary. Rutte also stated the joint forces will utilize new technologies such as naval drones. In previous announcements, officials stated the joint force would utilize artificial intelligence platforms to enhance surveillance operations. The group will coordinate directly with NATO’s Critical Undersea Infrastructure Network.
  NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) stated the operation will run for an undisclosed amount of time.

• Escalation: Rutte offered a warning to future agitators: “…threats to our infrastructure will have consequences, including possible boarding, impounding, and arrest,” indicating the potential for hybrid warfare schemes to escalate to conflict flashpoints.

Why This Matters
NATO’s decision to launch Baltic Sentry seems delayed and overdue despite the fact that it may proactively reduce Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare activity in the region. The operation is also symbolic and shows a unified front in NATO amid tensions on how to pursue aid for Ukraine and peace negotiations with Russia.

It is possible that NATO patrols could intercept Russian or Chinese vessels looking to damage or destroy critical undersea infrastructure. If this is the case, such an incident could deteriorate diplomatic relations or lead to unwanted escalations in the Baltic Sea.

A scenario I envision as likely: A Russian vessel a part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet” will loiter in the vicinity of an undersea cable. The vessel may damage or destroy a cable. NATO vessels will interdict the Russian one, board it, search it, and question the crew. NATO personnel could impound the vessel and Russia would be likely to use the incident to coerce peace negotiations with Ukraine and NATO, either by looking for favorable terms or pausing negotiations until the vessels release.

Sources: NATO, SHAPE (NATO)

Principle Ceasefire, Hostage Deal Between Israel And Hamas; Israeli Air Force “Ready” To Strike Iran

Summary
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. The agreement is broken into two phases, with phase one including the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Phase two could set terms for ending the conflict altogether. As Israel closes another front in its campaign against terrorist proxies, IAF officials have suggested they are standing by for strikes on Iran.

Findings

• Gaza Ceasefire: On 15 January, media outlets began reporting that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. Qatar’s prime minister, who helped mediate the process, says the deal includes the “phased release of hostages” and Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire goes into effect Sunday, 19 January and should include the release of 33 hostages. Israel’s cabinet still needs to approve the deal. If the deal progresses, negotiations to end the war and release remaining hostages can begin 16 days after implementation of phase one (i.e. mid-February would be the earliest point at which the war could end).
  Netanyahu and IDF officials previously vowed to achieve a “total victory” against Hamas, indicating that the conflict could resume at some point.

• Israel’s Position: Business Insider detailed how Israel’s air force has established air superiority in the region, following strikes on Iran in 2024 and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Following strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, Israeli Air Force officials suggested the force was prepared to strike Iran again. The threat comes days before Donald Trump’s inauguration. Trump has promised a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran and remains open to military strikes as Tehran continues to develop nuclear weapons.

Why This Matters
While experiencing hostile attacks from various Iran-sponsored terrorist proxies across the region, Israel successfully waged multiple campaigns across separate “fronts.” With a standing ceasefire in Lebanon, the capitulation of Assad’s Syria, and a new ceasefire in Gaza, Israel could free up assets to target major Houthi targets in Yemen. In defeating Iranian proxies, Israel also frees up assets to conduct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities alongside (or independent of) the United States.

Sources: CNN, The Times of Israel, Business Insider, The Times of Israel, The White House

End Brief

That concludes this Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

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See you on Sunday,

Nick