Thursday Morning Brief (14-17 October)

Israel has yet to strike Iran, high-level meetings for the EU and NATO, and the Chinese surround Taiwan in military exercises. Plus more...

Author

Nick
October 17, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are discussing some key updates in Europe, Israel’s sluggish decision-making, and a Chinese exercise that surrounded Taiwan.

Give yourself about 6 minutes for this one.

Reporting Period: 14-17 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. Israel is still determining how it will strike Iran. The US has urged caution, and Israel promised it would not strike nuclear or oil facilities. Iran has vowed to retaliate to any Israeli strike on its territory. US troops are now in Israel.

2. Germany’s foreign intelligence service warned that Russia is prepping for war with NATO. The intelligence chief said Russia has increased its espionage and sabotage activities to historic levels. He also said Russia could be ready for war with NATO by the end of the decade.

3. China’s military surrounded Taiwan. The PLA launched “Joint Sword-2024B,” a naval and air exercise that surrounded Taiwan. The exercise followed Taiwan’s National Day celebrations and was intended to send a “stern message” to Taipei.

4. Ukraine asked for a NATO membership invitation. Kyiv says it would solidify a part of Biden’s legacy. The request came just before NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels to discuss defense and deterrence.

5. The EU Commission is going to tighten migration policies. The EU Commissioner sent a message before EU officials meet today. She said the Commission will address ten items dealing with migration to appease growing concerns about migrant crime and immigration being used to fuel far-right support across Europe.

Missed Monday’s brief? Read it here.

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Iran Strikes: Netanyahu Will Listen To US, Final Decision Based On National Interest

On 15 October, BBC reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained open to American intelligence and advice regarding strikes on Iran. Netanyahu has reportedly agreed to not strike Iranian nuclear or oil facilities, and instead might target military sites.

Despite the reassurances, an anonymous Israeli official stated the following: “We listen to the American government’s thoughts, but will make our final decisions based on Israel’s national security needs.”

Why This Matters

According to BBC, US caution stems from security and political concerns. The anonymous Israeli official said that the IDF would not target oil facilities due to fears that rising oil and gas prices would affect the polls by tarnishing the reputation of members of the current administration.

From a security perspective, the US is becoming more deeply involved in Israel’s conflicts. On 15 October, the first US troops arrived in Israel with THAAD air defense systems. They are expected to be fully-operational capable soon. American troops could be targeted by Iran or its proxies in future attacks.

Israel has provided no new information on when or how the strikes will be conducted. Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for any strikes it carriers out against Tehran.

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German Intelligence Warns Russia Is Prepping For War With NATO

On 14 October, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND) Bruno Kahl said that Russian covert activities are being observed at unprecedented levels and that Russia is preparing for war with NATO.

“Putin will continue to test the West’s red lines and further escalate the confrontation. The Russian armed forces will probably be in a position, in terms of personnel and material, to launch an attack against NATO by the end of this decade at the latest.”

Bruno Kahl, BND

Kahl stated Russia’s growing defense spending, which is more than European nations spend individually, is cause for alarm. Kahl says Russia is looking to re-establish its sphere of influence by “kicking the US out of Europe,” restoring 1990 NATO boundaries, and building up forces on its Western borders with Europe.

Thomas Haldewang, the chief of Germany’s domestic intelligence (BfV), said the agency has observed increased espionage and sabotage activity, including a previous assassination attempt on the CEO of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer.

Why This Matters

It is hard to distinguish the testimony of Germany’s intelligence chiefs as genuine warnings or alarmism to boost defense and security spending in Germany and within NATO. Germany is clearly coming to terms with the fact that it must take its security more seriously.

Russia currently has deep security ties, which include weapons and aid deliveries, with China, North Korea, and Iran. It is possible that Russian foreign policy - and military action - could expand as global conflicts emerge (i.e. war in the Middle East or a China-Taiwan scenario in 2027). It is uncertain what concessions Russia could gain in Europe through nuclear or energy threats.

In regards to Ukraine, Zelenskyy has touted a “victory plan” despite the fact that the Ukrainian military is struggling with conscription and securing foreign weapons and aid.

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Chinese Exercises Surround Taiwan, Simulate Blockade

On 14 October, the PLA Navy deployed vessels and aircraft for exercises that surrounded Taiwan. The exercises simulate a blockade of Taiwan’s key ports and airways. The Chinese Defense Ministry said the exercises were a result of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s refusal to acknowledge Beijing as its rightful ruler.

The exercises come four days after Taiwan’s National Day celebrations in which Lai Ching-te said, in a speech, that Taiwan would resist Chinese aggressions. Taiwan and the United States have condemned the exercise.

China’s Global Times, a popular CCP-run media outlet, said the exercises were intended to be a “stern warning” to Taiwan.

On 15 October, the US Naval Institute reported that the Chinese carrier strike group that took part in “Joint Sword-2024B” were conducting drills in the South China Sea.

Read more about the build up (and my “Joint Sword-2024B” prediction) in the 10 October brief.

Why This Matters

China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan marks a significant deterioration in cross-strait relations. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) perceives Taiwan—and President Lai Ching-te—in a hostile light, labeling them as “separatists” who unjustly oppose China’s claimed sovereignty over the island.

From an operational standpoint, these military exercises provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with crucial experience in preparation of a potential engagement with Taiwan. Similar to a dress rehearsal, these drills allow the Chinese military to refine plans, assess readiness, and enhance tactical familiarity.

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Before High-Level NATO Meeting, Ukraine Asks For Membership Invitation

On 16 October, it was reported that Ukraine’s Ambassador to NATO, Nataliia Galibarenko, requested the alliance extend a membership invitation to Ukraine. Galibarenko stated the invitation would secure a core piece of President Biden’s legacy.

In an address to Ukraine’s parliament, President Zelenskyy also said Ukrainian NATO membership was critical to achieving victory. Zelenskyy’s remarks were preceded by concerns that diplomatic talks with Russia are proceeding without considering Ukraine’s interests. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not accept conditions that establish a “frozen conflict” or losses in territory.

Today, NATO Defense Ministers are meeting in Brussels. The new Secretary General Mark Rutte said defense and deterrence are his top priorities. For the first time, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea were invited. The defense ministers are expected to readdress the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act which effectively established standards of mutual cooperation and the pursuit of peaceful diplomacy.

Why This Matters

Both Kyiv and Moscow have previously addressed the issue of Ukraine's potential NATO membership. From Moscow's perspective, the 2022 invasion was justified by a belief in NATO expansionism; Putin argues that NATO violated a verbal agreement from 1990, in which it allegedly promised not to expand eastward. In 1999, the alliance welcomed Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

Inviting Ukraine to NATO could reinforce Putin’s narratives. It could also significantly undermine any diplomatic progress toward ending the war. In this scenario, Russia is unlikely to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and may instead seek increased military support from strategic allies such as China, Iran, and North Korea.

If the Russo-Ukrainian War reaches a fragile peace agreement that effectively "freezes" the conflict through diplomacy, Ukraine's NATO membership could resume tensions and potentially escalate the situation, drawing the entire alliance into direct confrontation with Russia. Russia has not ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in such a scenario.

NATO membership requires the consensus of all member states. Currently, opinions on the matter are varied.

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European Union To Tighten Migration Policy Due To Government Pressure

On 15 October, in anticipation of a 17-18 October European Commission meeting, Ursula von der Leyen wrote to leaders stating the Commission will address ten issues relating to the European Union’s migration policies. Recent migrant crime and the rise of center-right and far-right parties across Europe have pressured this decision.

Regardless of national law, EU member states must accommodate migrants who are granted asylum through the European Union.

Why This Matters

Many European nations are debating about the effects of migration. For example, in Germany the issue is multifaceted. Migrant crime has been used to grow far-right sentiment, but the issue remains a concern to many Germans regardless of political affiliation. The incumbent government, which has struggled to address such issues, is taking the concerns seriously as it prepares for federal elections in September 2025.

In another example, Poland wants to restrict asylum seekers from entering the country due to increased espionage and sabotage activity by migrants from Russia and Belarus. Finland suspended such asylum rights for the same reason in July 2024.

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End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. Be sure to email me with any questions, comments, or concerns: [email protected]

I hope you learned something!

Have a nice weekend and see you on Sunday,

Nick