Thursday Morning Brief (16-19 December 2024)

The German Chancellor fails a confidence vote, Russia and NATO warn of direct conflict, and IDF troops will remain in Syria. Plus more...

Author

Nick
December 19, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief — where we cover major updates from the week. Give yourself about 6 minutes to read this.

Reporting Period: 16-19 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Romania’s political crisis continues as it makes strides to expand its role in the EU and NATO. The parties in parliament have agreed to form a pro-EU coalition over concerns of Calin Georgescu winning a second round of presidential elections.

2. The Senate passed the 2025 NDAA which allocates $895.2 billion for the DOD. The bill easily passed in the House but saw a slight rise in partisan opposition. It will go to President Biden for approval.

3. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of no confidence in the Bundestag. The snap elections are scheduled for 23 February 2025, but if the president dissolves parliament, he has 60 days to schedule and hold elections. The CDU/CSU union are leading polls, but are likely going to having trouble building a coalition.

4. Both Russia and NATO have warned of an increasing likelihood of direct conflict. NATO’s Secretary General stated the alliance must shift to a “wartime mindset.” A Russian official stated war with NATO is likely in the next decade.

5. Netanyahu said the IDF will remain in the occupied buffer zone in Syria. Israel is expanding its settlements in the Golan Heights. IDF troops will remain in the buffer zone indefinitely, or until a different security agreement can be reached between Israel and the vying factions in Syria.

Romania Expands Integration With West Amid Political Crisis

Summary
In early December, Romania’s top court annulled the runoff presidential elections to block far-right frontrunner, Calin Georgescu’s, victory amid election fraud allegations. The country will have a second round of voting. In response, Romania’s pro-European parties have agreed to form a coalition. The leftist Social Democratic Party (PSD) secured the most votes and is likely to elect a prime minister. Romania, a key NATO ally, has been on the path towards deeper NATO and EU integration — a path that remains at risk depending on presidential election results.

Findings

  • Coalition in Parliament: Fearing a far-right, anti-EU presidency, Romania’s pro-Western parties formed a coalition to form a government. The parties are the leftist PSD, the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), the reformist Save Romania Union (USR), and the ethnic Hungarian UDMR party.

  • Presidential Election: Romania’s current president, Klaus Iohannis, said snap election will be scheduled after the new government is formed. Parliament is scheduled to convene on 20 December. It is not clear if Calin Georgescu will remain on ballots.

  • NATO: Romania is key to NATO’s strategy in Europe. Currently, the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base is undergoing renovations. It is slated to be larger — and more critical to future operations — than Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Additionally, from 2-12 December, Romanian forces conducted Patriot Spark 24.11 to certify the nation’s Patriot air defense program. Romania now has 4 operational Patriot systems and is becoming critical to defending NATO’s eastern flank.

  • European Union: The EU, fearing revisionist leadership in Romania, has boosted Bucharest’s integration with the West. On 11 December, the EU Commission announced Romania’s acceptance into the Schengen Zone, allowing for free travel, trade, and tourism between members. On 17 December, the EU Commission also launched a probe into TikTok, citing election interference in Romania.

Why This Matters
Romania’s political crisis highlights broader European trends — a surge in far-right support, growing skepticism toward the EU, and institutional responses aimed at safeguarding integration. The annulment of the presidential election, while addressing fraud concerns, also raises questions about the balance between protecting democracy and respecting the electoral process.

As a NATO linchpin and emerging EU cornerstone, Romania’s trajectory carries weight beyond its borders. Its deeper integration into the Schengen Zone and NATO’s eastern defense architecture enhances Europe’s collective security. However, the political instability could embolden anti-EU movements and undermine progress. Romania exemplifies the tension between national sovereignty and supranational interests, serving as a microcosm of Europe’s struggle to reconcile democratic legitimacy with institutional cohesion.

Senate Passes 64th National Defense Authorization Act, Goes To Biden For Approval

Summary
On 18 December, the Senate voted to pass the 2025 NDAA despite an increase in partisan opposition to the annual legislation. The bill passed 85 to 14. The House previously passed the bill 281-140. The bill is going to President Biden for his approval.

Findings

  • Funding: The 2025 NDAA allots the DOD $895.2 billion dollars for its annual budget. The figure reflects a 1% increase from 2024, and focuses heavily on quality of life improvements amid years of recruitment issues.

  • Content: The 2025 NDAA focuses a lot on quality of life improvements for US service members, but it also seeks to reform and expand the US strategy in Asia. A great piece by AEI outlines how the bill affects Asia policy, but here are the wavetops:

    • Expand deterrence in Asia through Japanese and South Korean partnerships

    • Expand the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative and grow the US-Taiwanese economic and security relationship

    • Increase investiture into UAS and missile defense systems

    • Increase restrictions to Chinese elites and CCP-affiliated firms while expanding domestic investment in resource supply chains

Why This Matters

  • Strategy in Asia: One of the NDAA’s priorities is the Indo-Pacific region due to concerns of China’s growing aggressions against key allies, such as Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan. Enhanced cooperation means better preparation, and the US-led alliance in the Pacific is intent on deterring China while standing up to its aggressions.

  • Recruitment: With ongoing recruitment challenges, the emphasis on improving service members' quality of life, including better housing, healthcare, and benefits, aims to attract and retain talent in a competitive labor market. This reflects a broader strategic priority of maintaining a robust and capable military force.

  • Economic and Security Resilience: By increasing restrictions on Chinese elites and CCP-affiliated firms, the NDAA works to safeguard economic and national security interests. Simultaneously, it promotes domestic investment in critical resource supply chains, reducing dependency on foreign adversaries.

  • Partisanship: Growing partisanship due to a clause that restricts Tricare coverage of transgender-related care indicates a looming divide between America’s political representatives. It is uncertain how modern social and cultural trends will continue under Trump, or how they will influence future bills and policy.

German Chancellor Loses Confidence Vote, Snap Elections To Move Forward

Summary
On 16 December, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost the vote of no confidence in the Bundestag. Scholz expected to lose and previously scheduled snap elections for 23 February 2024. The president can dissolve parliament and hold elections within 60 days of that decision.

Findings

  • Vote in the Bundestag: Scholz would have needed 367 votes to support him and remain Chancellor. 207 members supported Scholz, with 394 against and 116 abstentions. If the no confidence voting is any indication of how snap elections will fair, Scholz’s SDP party is unlikely to win.

  • Next Steps: Now that the Bundestag has declared the Scholz government unfit to lead, President Steinmeier determines the course. He has 21 days to decide whether he wants to dissolve parliament and hold elections. Whenever he makes such a decision, snap elections must be made within 60 days.

Why This Matters
The no-confidence vote and collapse of Olaf Scholz's government highlight Germany's deepening economic and political challenges, which could have far-reaching implications for both Germany and the European Union:

  • Economy: As the EU's largest economy, Germany’s struggles with rising costs, unemployment, and energy security have spurred a desire for change in leadership. These domestic issues risk undermining Germany's traditional role as the stabilizing force within the EU.

  • Political Polarity: Snap elections open the door to significant political shifts. While the center-right CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, is favored to win, the rising popularity of the far-right and far-left parties signals a growing fragmentation in German politics. A stronger radical or revisionist presence in the Bundestag could complicate coalition building, delaying critical decisions on economic, migration, and security policies.

  • Impact on EU Policy: Germany's internal instability could weaken its ability to lead on EU-wide initiatives, including import/export deals, securing energy resources, and determining support common security initiatives. Further political ineffectiveness, and a lack of solutions to European issues, is very likely to influence domestic and supranationalism politics — factors that could lead to social and political unrest across member states.

This leadership vacuum raises questions about Germany’s future direction, the cohesion of its domestic politics, and its influence within the broader European and global context.

Russia, NATO Warn Of Growing Likelihood Of Direct Conflict

Summary
In a 16 December speech at National Defence Control Center in Moscow, Russian Defence Minister Belousov stated that Russia must prepare for conflict with NATO in the next decade. The comments are preceded by NATO Secretary General Rutte stating that the alliance must “shift to a wartime mindset” and that Russia’s war with NATO — which has been conducted through covert and hybrid means — has already begun.

Findings

  • NATO: NATO officials and various intelligence services have warned of increased Russian hybrid warfare operations. An OSCE report obtained by a US delegation states that Russia has launched more than 150 attacks on NATO territory since the start of the war in Ukraine. Seeing a continued hybrid and conventional threat in Moscow, Rutte warned that the alliance needs to “turbocharge” defense spending, with the required 2% GDP contribution likely to rise to 3%.

  • Emboldened Russia:

    • Belousov stated the Russian Army’s focus in the “medium term” should be ensuring readiness in preparation for conflict with NATO.

    • Belousov cited US and NATO doctrine as evidence of Western warmongering.

    • Dmitry Medvedev (a former Russian Prime Minister and President) stated that “new” and “very close” regions could be integrated into the Russia Federation, stating that Russia’s Ukraine strategy (i.e. military and political subversion, occupation, referendums) “may be in demand in the future.”

    • Following Ukraine’s 17 December assassination of a Russian general, Medvedev said NATO officials are now “legitimate targets.”

“After all, the tactics are very simple: they [NATO] bring us to the red line, beyond which we can no longer retreat, we begin to respond - and then they immediately frighten their population with the Soviet threat, which was then in ancient times, and now with the Russian threat…”

Vladimir Putin, President, Russian Federation

Why This Matters
The deepening strategic divide and hostility between Russia and NATO significantly increases the risk of direct military confrontation.

  • Historic Factors: Russia’s justification of its actions through a defensive narrative highlights its enduring ambition to dominate its “near abroad” and reclaim influence over former Soviet territories. This mindset aligns with Russia's history of using hybrid warfare, disinformation, and coercive strategies to challenge Western alliances, making reconciliation between NATO and Moscow increasingly implausible.

  • Strategic Vulnerability: Russian political, economic, and military insecurity has increased do to high-costs, mounting battlefield losses, and Russia’s diplomatic exit from the western world. Statements about integrating new territories and defending "red lines" indicate a willingness to continue the strategic policies we witnessed in Ukraine, perpetuating a heightened security environment.

  • Western Concerns: NATO’s “wartime mindset” and calls for increased defense spending highlight the alliance’s recognition of Russia as a long-term threat, lowering the likelihood of Russian integration into the western world and increasing the likelihood of formal strategic alignment with China and other multipolar powers. Russia’s alignment, and insistence on using military force to pursue strategic goals, expands regional issues into global ones.

Israel To Remain In Syrian Buffer Zone Indefinitely

Summary
On 17 December, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the IDF positions in Syria will remain occupied. Netanyahu spoke to soldiers at Mount Hermon in Syria, a position that was strategically valuable in previous conflicts.

“We are holding this assessment in order to decide on the deployment of the IDF in this important place until another arrangement is found that ensures Israel’s security.”

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister, Israel

Israel’s occupation of Syrian territory remains controversial. It is possible that the IDF’s operations conflict with the American-EU desire to establish a democratic government in Syria. Currently, Syria is partitioned due to territories remaining under control of various rebel, government, or ethnic factions.

Findings

  • Background: In the 1974 Yom Kippur War ceasefire, the Golan Heights were established as a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. In 1981, Israel annexed the Golan Height and began constructing settlements. In 2019, President Trump recognized the area as Israeli.

  • Israel: Using valid security concerns as its casus belli, Israel is expanding its settlements beyond the Golan Heights into Syria. The Druze people, a religious and ethnic minority in Syria, have asked to join Israel — a proposal that offers legitimacy to Israel’s nation-building. Israel is still fighting a multi-front war against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza. The occupation of buffer zone territory and Israel’s destruction of the Syrian military is very likely to remain a part of Israel’s defensive narrative.

  • USA: In an 11-party joint statement, the US expressed its commitment — with Arab, EU, and UN backing — to establishing a new government in Syria. The statement demanded the end to conflict and proliferation of terrorist activities. The statement also demanded that Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity be upheld, a condition that conflicts with Israeli interests.

  • Hostages: The US, Israel, Hamas, and Qatar have been negotiating a possible ceasefire in Gaza in addition to the release of hostages associated with the 7 October attack on Israel. Continued incursions into Syria risk derailing negotiations.

Why This Matters
Israel's occupation of Syrian territory and expansion of settlements carry significant regional and global implications:

  • Risk of Regional Escalation: By extending its presence beyond the Golan Heights, Israel heightens tensions with Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah, while destabilizing the delicate balance of power among rebel, ethnic, and government factions in Syria.

  • Impact on Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations: Israeli incursions into Syria risk undermining ongoing ceasefire talks with Hamas, potentially derailing prisoner exchanges and prolonging the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

  • Challenges to US Foreign Policy: The occupation complicates US efforts to support a democratic transition in Syria while maintaining its alliance with Israel. Uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s upcoming administration adds to the geopolitical unpredictability.

  • Broader Strategic Implications: Israel’s expanded military positions could serve as staging grounds for future operations into Lebanon or deeper into Syria, further entrenching its defensive narrative while escalating conflicts across multiple fronts.

  • Potential Russian Leverage: Assad’s uncertain fate opens opportunities for Russia to use Syria as a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical negotiations, including those related to the Ukraine conflict.

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

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Thanks for reading!

See you Sunday,

Nick