Good morning,

Welcome to this Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are going to discuss some Russia-Ukraine updates, the Houthis, and some new investments and weapons tech.

This should take about 5 minutes and 30 seconds to finish.

Reporting Period: 16-19 September

Bottom Line Up Front:

Missed previous briefs? Pacific Weekly, Monday

Israel Vows Vengeance After Houthi Missile Strike

On 15 September, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement confirming that Houthi terrorists in Yemen launched a ballistic missile into central Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow defense systems were deployed, and it is believed the missile was intercepted. It landed in a forest and there are no confirmed casualties or damages.

This is the first time the Houthis have conducted an attack of this type, indicating changes to operational and logistic norms (i.e. Iran might be giving them more weapons). Netanyahu alluded to vengeance against the Houthis.

The Houthis released a propaganda video of the missile launch:

Why This Matters

There have been persistent concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could boil over into neighboring regions due Iran’s proxies. This strike indicates that this possibility is growing as Israel are not willing to let such acts go unpunished.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malek al-Houthi said the attack is “part of the fifth stage of the escalation.” This indicated two things:

• There is a coherent and coordinated strategy against Israel

• There will be more Houthi attacks which could lead to conflict with Yemen

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The Guardian

• Coverage by Axios

• Coverage by Times of Israel

Secretary Of State Briefed On Ukraine’s Plan To End War With Russia

On September 17, it was reported that Secretary of State Antony Blinken was briefed of Ukraine’s plan to end the war with Russia during his visit to Kyiv last week. President Zelenskyy is expected to discuss the plan at the United Nations General Assembly next week.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield also said she was briefed on the plan and stated that it “can work,” indicating that the US would likely endorse the plan at a UN forum.

Zelenskyy said he would like to discuss the plan with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Why This Matters

The war in Ukraine has been at a stalemate, with Russia controlling Ukraine’s eastern territories since the beginning of the conflict. Questions have been raised about Ukraine’s manpower, supplies, and ability to continue to secure aid from its Western allies. Russia, who has much more manpower and partners in China, Iran, and North Korea, seems much more capable of waging a long-term war of attrition.

Zelenskyy’s plan might include ceasefire conditions which could lead to formal negotiations with Russia.

Remember, Putin stated his “special military operation” was conducted on behalf of Russian peoples living and fighting in Ukraine’s east and to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. Ukraine could play into that to bring Russia to the table for talks. Russia wants to possess Ukraine, so whether Moscow is interested in these talks is uncertain.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• Report by ISW

Putin Orders Russian Military To Grow, Become Second Largest Force In The World

On 16 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to increase its amount of personnel by 180,000. This would bring Russia’s active duty force to a size of 1.5 million. In total, that would be nearly 2.4 million personnel and would give Russia the largest fighting force worldwide, behind China.

As of June, 700,000 of those troops have been involved in the war in Ukraine. Russia has reportedly increased wages to attract volunteers, rather than conscripts.

Why This Matters

Ukraine is preparing to unveil a plan to end the war at the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York. Putin’s recruitment push indicates Russia’s intent to carry on a slogging war of attrition.

Additionally, it is possible the US and NATO will soon allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory. Putin’s officials previously stated that this could lead to uncontrolled escalation and conflict with NATO. The recruitment push is a reminder of that threat.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by AP News

Pentagon Overseeing Investment Into Microchip Supply

On 16 September, the Pentagon announced it would assist the US Commerce Department by overseeing a $3 billion initiative intended to supply the US military with reliable, domestically manufactured microchips.

The first program, known as Secure Enclave, has been awarded to Intel Corp. and the funding will be used to improve and expand domestic fabrication facilities.

Why This Matters

This is a part of the Biden Administration’s CHIPS and Science Act which allocates $52 billion into semiconductor manufacturing and R&D. Today, the US produces 12% of microchips. In the 1990s, that number was 37% percent.

Microchips are integral for modern technologies we have come to rely on, mot notably cellphones, cars, and consume electronics. There are concerns that foreign manufactured chips (i.e. from China) could dominate the market and bypass quality control checks through sheer volume.

In such a scenario, Chinese chips could inadvertently end up in US military systems, such as the F-35, advanced radars and missiles, or computer systems. This is a major strategic concern.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Defense News

Marine Corps Using Missile To Strike From Afar, Avoid Air Defenses

F/A-18 Hornet aviators from Marine Fighter Squadron 232 are the first Marines to conduct ordnance operations with the Lockheed Martin AGM-158B missile.

The two versions are the AGM-158B extended range missile and the AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missile. Air Force Times reported a 620 mile range on the extended range variant.

Why This Matters

With adversary advances in missile, aircraft, and air defense technologies, the question of managing and winning an air war has been a concern. With long-range munitions, our stand-off capability is greatly increased.

In the simplest terms, longer ranged munitions means our aviators are able to stay farther away from hostiles, loiter longer, and cover airspace more efficiently. It also means we are more capable of striking crucial strategic targets to protect other assets (i.e. the Navy and airfields) and move assets and personnel across a region.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Defense News

End Brief

That concludes this Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Thanks for reading.

Remember, these events do not happen in a vacuum and they are shaping the future.

Next publication is coming to your inbox on Sunday @ 0630 ET.

Thanks for the support,

Nick