Thursday Morning Brief (17-19 June 2024)

Good morning. Another Thursday edition of The Intel Brief is here for you to dig into.

You should set aside about 8 minutes for this edition.

Reporting Period: 17-19 June 2024.

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. During their meeting, Putin and Kim Jong Un discussed how North Korea could supply weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, and how they could jointly resist U.S. sanctions.

• China continues to harass Filipino vessels in the Pacific, resulting in injuries to some crew members. The U.S. reaffirmed its defense pact with the Philippines.

• 23 NATO members now meet the required 2% GDP defense spending target.

• The NATO Secretary General said the alliance should consider flexing its nuclear capabilities and cited the necessity to deter threats from Russia, China, and North Korea.

• Biden authorized a $360 million arms sale to Taiwan, which includes loiter munition drones.

• Nvidia surpassed Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company, achieving a $3.34 trillion valuation.

• Chinese aircraft and naval vessels entered Taiwanese territory.

• Trump’s former national security advisor proposed deploying the entire U.S. Marine Corps to the Pacific to deter Chinese aggression.

Vladimir Putin Arrives In North Korea For Visit With Kim Jong Un
18 June 2024

On 18 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang, North Korea to meet with Kim Jong Un. This marks Putin’s first visit to North Korea since 2000. John Kirby, spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, expressed concerns about Russia and North Korea strengthening their ties. Kirby specifically cited the potential use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine and warned of reciprocal actions that could impact security on the Korean Peninsula.

Putin and Kim are expected to discuss several key issues:

• How North Korea can assist Russia with munitions and logistics support for the war effort in Ukraine.

• How Russia can provide guidance to North Korea's nuclear program.

• How North Korea can continue to challenge U.S. allies and perceptions of peace in the Pacific.

• How Russia and North Korea might collaborate to counter U.S. economic sanctions.

Why This Matters

Putin is looking for more support in Ukraine, and North Korea has been growing more aggressive by conducting “tit-for-tat” missile tests and exercises in response to the U.S. and our allies presence in the region.

2022 and 2023 were historic years for North Korean missile tests, in both scope (new, more capable missiles) and scale (the volume of tests completed).

Comment: On 18 June, North Korean troops breached the border of South Korea. South Korean troops fired warning shots at them.

Want To Read More?

• North Korean missile launch record by NTI and CNS (highly recommend you play around with this; best on browser)

• More from AP News

• Coverage by BBC

• Border breach incident by Al Jazeera

U.S. Denounces Chinese Naval Actions Against Philippines, Reaffirms Defense Pact
17 June 2024

On 17 June, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel fired water cannons at a Filipino vessel conducting a resupply mission in the Second Thomas Shoal. The PLA Navy vessels also rammed and towed the Filipino vessel. Filipino sailors were injured.

The U.S. Department of State also issued a statement:

Why This Matters

The Second Thomas Shoal is within the Spratly Island Chain, a hotly contested region that the Chinese and Philippines lay claim to.

China depends on these small actions to achieve a larger end. These tactics are not unusual for the Chinese and are conducted regularly. They are a part of China’s efforts to compete with the United States in an attempt to convince nations that resisting China is a futile effort, and that nations should abandon efforts deemed unsatisfactory to the CCP.

Want To Read More?

• Statement by the Department of State

• Coverage by The Inquirer

• Coverage by The Hill

Quick Look: Record Number Of NATO Members Hitting Defense Spending Target

NATO members are required by treaty to reach a defense spending of 2% of their GDP. Due to the war in Ukraine, defense spending is up across the alliance. Of the 32 members, 23 now meet the spending target.

More from AP News.

NATO Secretary General Says The Alliance Should Flex Its Nuclear Muscles
17 June 2024.

On 16 June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proposed that NATO should consider deploying more of its nuclear weapons to deter Russia, China, and North Korea. Stoltenberg did not mention Iran, despite concerns about its growing nuclear capabilities.

Stoltenberg argues that Russia's aggressive actions necessitate stronger deterrence measures from NATO. In 2023, Russia deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus, and recently, Belarus and Russia conducted joint nuclear drills.

Stoltenberg reaffirmed NATO’s desire for nuclear nonproliferation, but stated the following:

Why This Matters

The Cold War brought on a nuclear arms race and the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) which theorizes that the use of nuclear weapons is a “Lose-Lose” strategic option when adversaries are in possession of them (due to a nuclear apocalypse via retaliation strikes).

Mutually Assured Destruction doesn’t stop nuclear-capable nations (like Russia) from holding that threat over people’s heads. A part of the theory is that logic says “no one in their right mind would use nuclear weapons.” The reality is that since we can never fully know another’s intentions, we must treat every threat as if there is truth to it.

This dilemma has only increased the creation of nuclear weapons, and put nonproliferation to the wayside.

Want To Read More?

• Article by Politico

Quick Look: U.S. Approves $360 Million Arms Sale To Taiwan

On 19 June, the Biden administration authorized an arms sale to Taiwan valued at $360 million. The sale primarily consists of drones: 291 ALTIUS 600M UAVs and 720 Switchblades. Both are categorized as loiter munitions designed to fly above a target before diving and detonating. The ALTIUS series comprises multiple models with various capabilities.

Recently, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, emphasized that "only military strength will maintain peace with China."

• Read about the ALTIUS

• Read about the Switchblade

• Read about the sale from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

Nvidia Becomes World’s Most Valuable Company, Beating Microsoft
19 June 2024

On 18 June, Nvidia surpassed Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable company, achieving a $3.34 trillion valuation. Nvidia’s value has nearly doubled since the beginning of the year, driven by its manufacturing of advanced chips, which are now integral to new Artificial Intelligence technology.

Why This Matters

Some say the Nvidia valuation is over the top. Nvidia’s core chip manufacturer is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. (TSMC). Much of TSMC’s facilities and foundries are located in Taiwan.

War with China would drastically disrupt Nvidia’s chip manufacturing.

Want To Read More?

• More from BBC

• Chip War by Chris Miller

• The Kill Chain by Christian Brose (there is a specific scene in this book that shows the terrifying implications in losing the chip war)

Quick Look: China Commits Incursions On Taiwanese Territory

On 19 June, 18 PLA aircraft and 6 PLA Navy vessels operated around Taiwan. 12 of the aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line and entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

• Statement by Ministry of National Defense Republic of China

National Security Advisor To Trump Says To Deploy Entire Marine Corps To Pacific
18 June 2024

In an 18 June op-ed for Foreign Affairs, Robert O’Brien suggested deploying the entire Marine Corps to the Pacific to counter China’s military growth and posturing.

O’Brien views the China threat as America’s primary foreign policy concern and suggested reallocating Marine Corps responsibilities away from other parts of the globe. O’Brien cited the US military’s poor posture in the Pacific:

O’Brien’s piece highlights the current state of the U.S. Navy and Air Force, and urges both services to grow and invest in the necessary weapons platforms and support systems.

Why This Matters

O’Brien proposes a solution to the China problem that might not be realistic, but it carries good sentiment. We consider China our primary adversary and greatest competitor. We need a stronger posture in the Pacific, supported by competent policy in Washington, to prevent war with China (or to win it when the time comes).

As of 2024, the Marine Corps has around 180,000 active personal with 32,000 in the Reserves.

Want To Read More?

• O’Brien’s op-ed in Foreign Affairs

• Commentary by Politico

End Brief

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