Thursday Morning Brief (18-21 November 2024)

Long-range strikes approved for Ukraine, the sabotage of undersea cables, and the G20 Leaders Summit in Brazil. Plus more...

Author

Nick
November 21, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning,

This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Estimated Read Time: 6 minutes

Reporting Period: 18-21 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Brazil hosted the G20 Leaders Summit. The Group of 20 met to discuss poverty, climate change, and hunger. Some world leaders took advantage of the setting and carried out their own bilateral meetings.

2. Biden approved long-range strikes for Ukraine. The UK and France are also considering approving long-range strikes. In response, Russia loosened restrictions on its nuclear weapons employment. The Kremlin maintains nuclear force remains a last resort.

3. Northern European countries issued war and crisis response pamphlets to residents. Most notable was Sweden’s pamphlet, which it is sending to every Swedish household. It details how citizens can prepare for, and respond to, crises or conflict.

4. Two undersea fiberoptic cables were cut in the Baltic. European leaders think it was an act of sabotage perpetrated by China. One cable connects Finland and Germany while the other connects Latvia and Gotland, Sweden.

5. AUKUS partners agree to hypersonics testing. A new landmark agreement between the US, UK, and Australia will coordinate the use of resources and facilities for future hypersonic vehicle tests. The partners are urgently looking to make leaps in the technology for defense purposes.

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Brazil Hosts G20 Leaders Summit

From 18-19 November, leaders of the “Group of 20” met in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. At the summit, world leaders discussed global issues like climate change, UN reform, and economic integration.

Brazil’s President Lula controversially stated that the US-led “Neoliberal” order has failed, and that it is time reform the UN Security Council to include new permanent members.

When delivering remarks, President Biden urged nations to continue to support Ukraine and Israel. Russian President Putin did not attend the summit.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with foreign ministers and senior officials of 13 nations on the sidelines of G20. They discussed economic partnership, mutual security, and advancing peace in the Western Hemisphere.

Why This Matters

The G20 forum not only serves as a vital platform for global economic coordination on issues like financial stability, trade, and development, but it also offers leaders a valuable opportunity for bilateral diplomacy.

Xi Jinping effectively leveraged the setting, holding numerous one-on-one meetings with attending leaders. The relatively low-profile participation of President Biden and the United States risks diminishing our influence, something that could slowly prompt other nations to turn to multipolar alternatives like China, Russia, or regional groups such as BRICS.

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Russia Updates Nuclear Protocols, Vows Response After Long-Range Strikes Approved For Ukraine

On 18 November, CNN reported that President Biden has approved the use of US-made ATACMS for long-range strikes into Russia. US officials stated that Ukraine has been instructed to prioritize strikes on targets in the Kursk oblast, Russian territory held by Ukraine.

Following the American decision, France and the UK are reconsidering long-range strikes for Ukraine. Le Figaro reported that SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles may be approved for long-range strikes in Russia.

On 19 November, Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that Ukraine had carried out its first long-range strike on a munitions facility in the Bryansk oblast. Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the Kremlin has reduced restrictions on nuclear weapons employment, stating that Moscow is within its rights to use nuclear force if subjected to an attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear state (i.e. Ukraine and the US).

Why This Matters

Russia has vowed that Ukrainian strikes with western-supplied missiles would be met with “an appropriate and tangible” response. The Kremlin stated that while it has reduced restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons, the option remains a last resort.

There are some questions that still remain unaddressed:

  • Was President-elect Donald Trump consulted on this decision? If not, could Biden have approved the strikes to hinder future peace negotiations?

  • Will Ukraine restrict long-range strikes to Kursk and the immediate surrounding areas, or will it send a message to Moscow and strike indiscriminately through Russia’s west?

  • With nuclear strikes being an unfathomable over-reaction, how will Russia respond?

It is likely that Russia will continue to conduct its offensive operations in Kursk and Donetsk. Despite Putin’s lack of interest in negotiating a ceasefire, President-elect Trump is intent on ending the war. Both Russia and Ukraine want to negotiate from positions of strength.

  • For Russia, this means definitively holding as much pro-Russian and separatist territory as possible. It also means maintaining manpower and materiel superiority.

  • For Ukraine, this means securing western aid and weapons, and maintaining a dominant foothold in Kursk; territory Russia would certainly be unwilling to cede.

Russia is likely to look for increased support from its strategic allies. It may seek greater numbers of drones and missiles from Iran, while it may look to North Korea for more arms, ammunition, and soldiers. Additionally, Russia is likely to expand the sale of oil and gas products through its “shadow fleet,” a sanction skirting apparatus.

In Europe, Russia is likely to increase its hybrid warfare operations.

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Sweden Issues Pamphlet, Urges Citizens To Prepare For War And Crises

On 18 November, NATO’s newest member state, Sweden, began mailing pamphlets titled “In case of crisis of war” to every Swedish household. The pamphlet provides Swedish residents advice on how to prepare for, and manage, various crises.

The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), the pamphlet issuing agency, stated Sweden faces increased geopolitical and social risks.

The pamphlet offers Swedish citizens insights into some of the following:

  • Seeking positions in military and civil defense organizations

  • Civil wartime mobilization

  • Monitoring Public Service Announcements (PSA)

  • Seeking shelter

  • Evacuations

  • Basic first aid

  • Psychological defense

Norway and Finland also issued similar pamphlets, but with more emphasis on environmental or infrastructure disasters. Finland joined NATO, alongside Sweden, after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Why This Matters

European governments have valid concerns that their citizens could be at risk of increased crises (see next update).

Additionally, growing escalations in the war in Ukraine, such as the deployment of North Korean soldiers and US-approved long-range strikes for Ukraine, raise concerns that NATO is inching closer to conflict with Russia.

The pamphlets also indirectly address European concerns with national defense and security. Individually, many European nations are ill-prepared for prosecuting a war on their home soil, let alone offensive operations abroad. The pamphlets highlight the need for everyday citizens to assist responders during crises or take up arms in defense during wartime.

Want To Read More?

  • Download the pamphlet by MSB

  • Norway’s pamphlet by DSB

  • Finland’s pamphlet by Finland

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European Leaders Suspect Chinese Sabotage In Undersea Cable Incident

On 19 November, various European officials announced that two undersea fiberoptic cables were cut. One 135 mile long cable between Lithuania and Gotland, Sweden was cut. A second cable between Finland and Germany, 746 miles long, was also cut.

European leaders suspect the damages were an act of sabotage by Russia or China. The Yi Peng 3, a Chinese vessel that had departed a Russian port, was observed transiting the waters where the damaged cables are laid. It is believed the vessel intentionally dragged its anchor across the cables.

European leaders also suspect Russian involvement. In April 2023, Swedish, Norwegian, and Danish media reported that over a 10 year period, more than 50 Russian vessels had been gathering intelligence on sabotage opportunities across the Baltic Sea.

Why This Matters

European leaders have persistently warned about increased hybrid warfare activity across NATO member states.

“Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors. Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies.”

Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister

Germany, for example, has suffered cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, assassination plots, and airline sabotage with incendiary devices.

The most notable act of sabotage following the beginning of the war in Ukraine was the September 2022 Nord Stream 1 and 2 attacks, in which a Ukrainian individual damaged the pipelines with explosives.

Acts of hybrid warfare are likely to persist, if not increase, in NATO member states so long as Putin remains committed to the war in Ukraine and neglects opportunities for peace negotiations.

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AUKUS Partners To Collaborate On Hypersonic Weapons

On 18 November, the Pentagon announced that the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia signed the Hypersonic Flight Test and Experimentation (HyFliTE) Project Arrangement to enhance the testing of hypersonic vehicles. The landmark agreement expands trilateral use of testing facilities and information sharing.

HyFliTE allocates $252 million to fund six flight tests by 2028.

Why This Matters

Hypersonic speed is classified as Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound.

Advances in hypersonic technology could one day revolutionize travel and logistics, but in this instance it is to advance defense capabilities. Aircraft and missiles travelling at hypersonic speeds make successful detection, tracking, and intercept more difficult.

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End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. I hope you enjoyed the more niche coverage, as well as the analysis.

Have a nice weekend,

Nick