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Thursday Morning Brief (19-22 August)
Iran bides its time, China seeks new allies, and a drone attack on Moscow. Plus more...
Nick
August 22, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
A lot has happened this week so there is a lot to cover. I recommend grabbing your coffee and breakfast, and taking about 7 minutes and 30 seconds to finish this one.
Keep in mind that a lot of these events are relevant due to how they are (potentially) framing the future.
Reporting Period: 19-22 August
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. The US Intelligence Community (IC) has confirmed that Iran hacked former President Trump’s campaign. The IC warned of further election meddling efforts by state and non-state actors.
2. Xi Jinping and Vietnam’s new General Secretary To Lam met in Beijing. China is pursuing closer economic, diplomatic, and security relations with Vietnam.
3. The Chinese Communist Party’s United Front organization is working to “humanize” and “sinicize” Chinese Buddhism. This effort will attempt to alter Chinese Buddhism to be more in line with Chinese Socialism and Xi’ism.
4. US Secretary of State Blinken met with Israeli President Herzog. Blinken also addressed media and is committing US efforts to deterrence and a ceasefire in Gaza.
5. The first-ever carrier-based drone control center was installed aboard the USS George HW Bush. The center is a major leap in command and control (C2) of autonomous assets at sea.
6. Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack in Russia which included strikes on Moscow. The city’s air defenses repelled the attack.
Intelligence Community Confirms Iranian Election Meddling Efforts, Warns Of Further Interference
On 19 August, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a joint statement discussing Iran’s election interference operations.
The IC confirmed that Iran previously hacked the Trump campaign to hinder their efforts and to steal sensitive information. The IC stated the FBI are actively investigating the issue and are working to make US elections more resilient to such tactics.
Why This Matters
Foreign adversaries have tried influencing US elections through overt cyberattacks, hacking, or subverted social media operations. Successful operations have the ability to slow or halt a candidates campaign (as Trump’s campaign alluded to on 10 August) or influence public opinion.
Want To Read More?
Xi Jinping, Vietnam’s To Lam Meet In China
On 19 August, China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping and Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam met in Beijing to discuss growing a strategic China-Vietnam partnership.
Xi was the first leader to congratulate Lam after his victory. It is Lam’s first overseas visit in his new role. CGTN reports that the two nations are looking to deepen economic development and cooperation on “social stability". Over time, China is likely to attempt to persuade Vietnam into closer security ties.
Why This Matters
Vietnam is a growing export economy and an original Trans-Pacific Partnership (2016) member. 29% of Vietnam’s exports go to the United States, with 15% going to China. Its position in the southern part of the South China Sea make them geographically relevant to both the US and Chinese security posture in the region.
China is seeking to develop normal diplomatic relations with the Communist Vietnam. Vietnam and China have had troubled relations since the 1979 Chinese invasion. Under Nguyen Phu Trong (Lam’s predecessor), Vietnam began opening-up to Beijing more.
With US economic and security policy attempting to refocus its priorities, Vietnam has briefly fallen out of Washington’s purview. On 27 July, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam. He met with Prime Minister Chinh to pay respects to Nguyen Phu Trong’s passing and to discuss the Vietnamese-American partnership.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CGTN
Vietnam by CIA World Factbook
Blinken’s meeting with Chinh by Department of State
Chinese Communist Party Works to Reform Chinese Buddhism, Expand “Xi’ism”
On 19 August, Bitter Winter reported on the yearly Buddhist Lecture Exchange Conference that convened in Beijing on 11 August. The lecture, which is run by the Chinese Communist Party’s China Buddhist Association, called for “sinicization” of Chinese Buddhism. The lecture also called for more “humanistic” reform of the faith.
Why This Matters
Comment: This is one of those fascinating things you likely will never hear about outside of China, or unless a major historical work is published decades from now to explain tyranny under Chinese Communism. Please read it.
The CCP has found the usefulness of religion. The CCP’s United Front (which was an effective tool of Mao’s and revived under Xi) uses religion and propaganda for influence in China and abroad.
Sinicization is the assimilation of ethnic or social minorities into Chinese culture. Historical examples might equate it to Romanization, Russification, or Germanisation; it is a nation-building process aimed at mono-culturalism.
In the lecture, humanization was a clever use of double-speak in that the Buddhists and Chinese Communists share a different interpretation. In this instance, United Front member Ma Lianmei revealed the CCP’s intent:
The Buddhist community should align with the Plenum’s directives by embracing President Xi Jinping’s guidance on religion, thus advancing the integration of Buddhism with the core socialist values in the country.
What the humanization and sinicization process really means is an restructuring of the Buddhist faith to align with Chinese Marxism. Similarly, in 2018 at the 13th National People’s Congress, “Xi Jinping Thought” (also known as Xi’ism) was written into the Chinese constitution as official state ideology. This revision of Buddhism could signal Xi’s oversight of faith in China as well.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Bitter Winter
Blinken Meets With Israeli President, Addresses Media While Iran Remains Patient
On 19 August, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. Blinken reiterated America’s support for Israeli security. Both Blinken and Herzog shared their desire to reach a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages, and allow for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.
Blinken also delivered remarks to the media. Blinken reaffirmed that new assets in the region - like the USS Abraham Lincoln and a missile submarine - are deployed to the region for deterrence only. Blinken urged any state or non-state actors to avoid actions that would provoke a wider conflict.
…an intense diplomatic campaign is something that I’m pursuing on this trip, again, with the intent of making sure that we deter further conflict, but that we’re also clearly prepared to defend against it if it comes. But what’s most crucial now is that everyone – everyone – refrain from taking any actions that could fuel further conflict, escalate tensions, and result in the spreading of violence and conflict.
In his address to the media, Blinken also emphasized the desire to reach a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages, and allow for humanitarian aid to enter the region. President Biden published a ceasefire plan in May, which was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security council (14:0).
On 21 August, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the nation’s pledged retaliation will take time and that they will not make a “hasty” decision.
Why This Matters
The US and Israel are taking every measure to deter wider action by Iran and its proxies. Iran already directly attacked Israel in April and officials are worried a retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders could be larger and more coordinated than before.
Such an attack might provoke a regional conflict, rather than the concentrated one ongoing in Gaza. Iranian proxies continue to attack from Yemen and Lebanon.
Want To Read More?
Blinken’s speech to media by Department of State
Blinken’s meeting with the Israeli President by Department of State
Iran waiting to strike by CNN
The First-Ever Carrier-Based Drone Control Center
On 20 August, it was reported that the US Navy’s first Unmanned Air Warfare Center (UAWC) was installed on the USS George HW Bush. The UAWC is a modified version of the Navy’s Unmanned Carrier Aviation Mission Control System (UMCS) which makes up the MD-5E Ground Control Station.
The system is the Navy’s principle Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) system.
The Navy says the UAWC will be used to control MQ-25 Stingrays, which are unmanned tanker drones. The Navy intends for the UAWC to handle all drone-based command and control (C2) in the future, for both airborne and surface platforms. The Navy intends the fit every Nimitz and Ford class carriers with a UAWC.
The UAWC is expected to begin at-sea testing in early 2025.
Why This Matters
The development and integration of the UAWC, along with new assets like the MQ-25 Stingray, indicate the Navy’s desire and ability to embrace new warfighting technologies.
These new systems are pioneering a future of warfighting that has high endurance, lower cost, and improved C4I capabilities.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by The Defense Post
Ukraine Launches Large-Scale Drone Attack On Moscow
On 21 August, Moscow officials stated that Ukraine had launched one its largest drone attacks on Moscow. The Russian air defenses shot down 11 Ukrainian drones. Reportedly, the attack was a part of a “wave” of 45 drones that struck targets inside Russia. There are no reports of casualties or significant damages to infrastructure in Moscow.
A Ukrainian drone also attacked an oil storage facility in Rostov on Sunday. As of Tuesday more than 500 Russian firefighters were working to stop a fire.
The drone attacks occurred just as Ukrainian ground forces occupy parts of Kursk, a Russian oblast.
Why This Matters
The Kursk incursion and drone strikes are uncharacteristic offensive actions by Ukrainian forces. It is likely they are intended to divert Russian troops and resources from frontlines inside Ukraine.
The destruction of infrastructure inside of Russia complicates Moscow’s ability to manage the war and ultimately seize ground inside Ukraine. Additionally, the seizure of territory in Kursk and strikes on Russia’s capital are major political victories for Ukraine as they display Russian vulnerability and defensive disunity.
Russia is likely to retaliate by attempting to strike Kyiv and retake Kursk.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by The Guardian
Additional information by Rated Red
End Brief
That concludes your Thursday morning brief. Thank you for reading!
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Two reminders for upcoming briefs:
Sunday SITREP on China @ 0630
Monday morning brief @ 0630
See you then and enjoy the weekend,
Nick