Good morning,

This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief, and I have some interesting things to cover as Trump’s presidency is already shaking up the norm.

Reporting Period: 20-23 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Senate Confirms Rubio For Secretary Of State, Sworn In By VP Vance

Summary
On 20 January, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm Senator Marco Rubio as the next Secretary of State. Rubio was sworn into the role on 21 January by Vice President J.D. Vance.

Findings

• Senate Support: The vote to confirm Rubio as Trump’s Secretary of State began after the inauguration. Rubio was confirmed with 99 supporting votes. The single non-vote was J.D. Vance’s due to him being inaugurated as Vice President. Rubio succeeds Antony Blinken.

• Credentials: Senators on both sides of the aisle have called Rubio “highly qualified” for the role. Rubio became the leading Republican Senator on the Senate Intelligence Committee following his failed 2016 presidential campaign.

• Replacing Rubio: Florida Governor DeSantis will replace Rubio with the incumbent Attorney General Ashley Moody.

Why This Matters
Rubio has a lot of support from high-ranking Republicans and Democrats which, in addition to his experience, helps qualify him for the role.

Rubio is expected to pursue much of Trump’s foreign policy strategies, but could conflict with the President on some topics (according to the mainstream media’s portrayal of Trump’s foreign policy goals):

• NATO: Rubio is an ardent supporter of NATO. Rubio previously co-sponsored a law requiring Senate approval or an act of Congress to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance — a threat Trump has made to pressure greater contributions from European allies.

• Ukraine: Rubio has said he supports Trump’s plan to bring peace to Ukraine because it is “unrealistic” to think Ukraine can recover pre-2022 borders. It is very likely that one of Rubio’s first trips abroad will be to meet with Russian or Ukrainian officials to begin coordinating negotiations.

• China: In his confirmation hearing, Rubio called China a “dangerous” adversary and things the U.S. should adopt a more aggressive stance against Beijing.

Rubio is also likely to attend the upcoming Syria conference in France, where he is likely to meet with high-level officials to discuss ongoing crises in the Middle East (including Israel’s wars and Iran).

Sources: CNN, NBC News, Reuters

Trump Pushes Executive Orders, Actions On First Day In Office

Summary
On 21 January, President Trump signed a series of executive orders, memos, personnel actions, and executive actions in front of media. Much of Trump’s actions were intended to undo some Biden-era policies or to inject urgency and resources into ongoing crises.

Findings
Trump signed 42 executive orders, memos, and proclamations. Some are of note:

Why This Matters
Trump’s first few days in office reflect aggressive and corrective policy promises from his campaigns. They represent significant shifts from the Biden administration.

From a domestic perspective, several of Trump’s executive orders—such as those addressing immigration, federal and military recruiting practices, and energy policies—could spark political division and face potential legal challenges. These actions underscore his intent to dismantle key components of the prior administration’s agenda while signaling a return to the priorities he championed during his earlier term.

From a foreign policy perspective, Trump appears focused on reinforcing his stance of ensuring America receives financial and strategic benefits from both allies and adversaries. Early indicators suggest he aims to reassess and recalibrate U.S. positions on critical crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions with Iran, and the strategic rivalry with China. These moves hint at the development of robust and rigid policy objectives designed to align with his administration’s emphasis on "America First."

Trump’s rapid and assertive changes seem designed to create momentum, compelling both legislators and international partners to adapt to his administration’s pace and priorities. This strategy reflects a deliberate effort to consolidate control and set the tone for the term ahead.

Sources: The White House, X

Putin “Open To Dialogue” With Trump As Russian Military Logistics Under Question

Summary
On 20 January, Putin stated he is ready to open dialogue with Trump’s administration. Putin wants to find amicable terms to end the war in Ukraine as well as “normalize” relations with the U.S. and the West. Trump has said he will meet with Putin “very soon.” Conflicting reports suggest Russia may be balancing a military logistics issue, which is likely to pressure Russia to end the war quickly.

Findings

• Putin’s Remarks: On 20 January, TASS reported that Putin is willing to communicate with the Trump administration on ending the war in Ukraine and the “elimination of the root causes of the crisis,” alluding to the relations between Russia and the West. In December 2024, Putin stated he was ready to “normalize” relations with the U.S. and Europe so long as Russia’s interests are not undermined.

• Trump’s Remarks: On 21 January, Report News Agency quoted President Trump as saying “I’ll be meeting with President Putin.” Trump did not allude to when or where a meeting with Putin would take place, but said it will happen “very soon.” Trump has threatened sanctions and tariffs on Russia to compel a quick peace deal.
  Trump first called on Putin to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine during his visit to Paris in December, where he met with French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

• Russian Military Strength: Putin’s willingness to speak with Trump and begin coordinating negotiations overshadows conflicting reports regarding Russia’s military logistics. The Defense Post reports that Russia’s artillery ammunition stocks are “slashed by half” following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian factories, depots, airfields, and command centers.
  However, German military officials claim that Russia is rebuilding its military and rearming its forces quicker than previously thought — specifically to deter or attack NATO.

Why This Matters
Putin’s willingness to begin a dialogue with Trump and his administration means peace negotiations could begin soon. Current battlefield positions favor Russia, but reports on Moscow’s ability to sustain combat operations mean Russia could be more desperate for an end to conflict than previously thought.

Putin’s comments about normalizing relations with the U.S. and the West are unexpected and complicate the peace negotiations, as NATO nations may now approach a dialogue with the expectation of establishing a formal Russia-NATO relationship. Russia could potentially use this to detract from Ukrainian interests in addition to inducing friction between Western allies and their disparate interests.

Sources: Report News Agency, Reuters, ANI, The Telegraph, The Defense Post

IT And Cybersecurity Giant Reports Largest DDoS Attack Ever

Summary
On 21 January, Cloudfare reported that it had defended a client against the largest DDoS attack in history. The report also claims DDoS attacks by botnets increased 53% in 2024 from 2023, indicating a growth in cybercrimes and cyber capabilities.

Findings

• DDoS: Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks occur when a perpetrator floods a server or network with large volumes of traffic with the intent to overwhelm the system, deny user access, or force a shutdown of services.

• Cloudfare Report: On 21 January, Cloudfare reported that it had blocked a 5.6 Terabit per second (Tbps) DDoS attack by a Mirai Botnet on one of its clients in Eastern Asia. Cloudfare also said it blocked over 21 million DDoS attacks in 2024, a 53% increase from 2023.

• Mirai Botnets: Mirai Botnets are a network of remotely controlled bots used to infect smart devices with malware, such as viruses, Trojans, rootkits, and spyware. They work by scanning for devices on the internet that run on ARC processors.

Why This Matters
The Cloudfare report suggests that some cyberattacks are becoming more common which is likely due to new technologies, more efficient computing, and offensive cyber actions outpacing defensive ones.

Cloudfare, and companies like it, clearly have the capability to defend against attacks. However, as we have seen with successful attacks before, a perpetrator only needs to succeed once to cause catastrophic damage to a network, extract data, or install spyware.

The size of the attack, as well as its short and intense duration, indicate cyberwarfare as an increasingly dangerous and effective tool of criminals, governments, and militaries.

Sources: Cloudfare, Cloudfare, The Hacker News

Slovakian Opposition Seeks No Confidence Vote In Fico’s Government

Summary
On 21 January, leaders of Slovakia’s parliamentary opposition stated they will push for another vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Fico. Fico previously sabotaged Tuesday’s scheduled vote by making it a closed-door session. The opposition wants the vote and debate to be public.

Findings

• Background: Fico is one of Europe’s most pro-Russia figures and has caused a rift in Slovakia’s government — with some stating he is paving a path towards withdrawing Slovakia from the European Union. A vote of no confidence was scheduled on Tuesday, but Fico made the parliamentary session closed doors due to wanting to brief “confidential information” to MPs. This meant the session would be closed doors, and the public would not hear the dialogue before a vote.

• Opposition: Michael Simecka, leader of the Progressive Slovakia party, stated the opposition will convene another emergency House session to carry out a vote of no confidence. Simecka stated that Fico’s tactic is so he can avoid publicly discussing “his failures.”

• Fico’s Position: Fico stated that his opposition in parliament is staging a “Maidan coup” and will attempt early elections with the support of “foreign actors.” Because Fico believes the opposition is planning widespread protests to force his exit, Slovak security forces could be deployed to protect “against protest activities violating the law.”

Why This Matters
It is uncertain what Prime Minster Fico will do to avoid a vote of no confidence or widespread protests in Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia. His statements suggest he would deploy law enforcement personnel to quell protests and remain in power.

It is also uncertain how the opposition will schedule another vote given Fico’s ability, and willingness, to hijack parliamentary sessions. Despite Fico’s coalition having a slim 2-seat majority, the opposition is not confident they can oust Fico without pressure from the public (i.e. a public session would allow Fico to be portrayed as outright pro-Russian. It would also allow public confirmation of a result, meaning Fico would not be able to deny a vote of no confidence if it passed).

Sources: TASR, TASR, TASR

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

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Thank you,

Nick