Good morning,

I hop you had a merry Christmas. This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 23-26 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Slovak Prime Minister Visits Putin In Moscow

Summary
On 23 December, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico traveled to Russia to meet with President Putin. BBC reports that his meeting is in violation of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. Protests have erupted in Bratislava, Slovakia’s capital, and are likely to grow.

Findings

• Energy: Fico traveled to Moscow to discuss a bilateral energy deal between Slovakia and Russia. Putin favors the deal but said it is impossible. On 1 January 2025, Ukraine is scheduled to shut off its pipelines from Moscow to Europe. Russia, Slovakia, and Hungary have attempted to renew an energy transit deal with Ukraine — a deal other EU states have quietly critiqued due to their need for cheap energy.

• Domestic Politics: Robert Fico’s government coalition holds a narrow 2-seat majority in Slovakia. Opposition called Fico’s trip to Moscow a disgrace and “betrayal of national interests.” Continued pro-Russian policies or other controversial decisions could lead to a vote of no confidence in parliament.

• Support for Ukraine: In October 2023, after Fico became prime minister, he ended Slovakian military aid to Kyiv. The policy shifted when Fico refused to join a Czech-led operation to supply Ukraine with artillery rounds.
  Responding the Fico’s visit to Moscow, Ukraine President Zelenskyy stated he offered Slovakia an offer of compensation for losses regarding the transit deal. He also stated Fico, unable to secure energy from elsewhere, is receiving financial compensation from Putin for his pro-Russian policies.

• Protests: It is possible that the protests in Bratislava will grow. Further protests could lead to unrest or violence. Fico survived an assassination attempt earlier this year.

Why This Matters
Fico’s pro-Russian policies are an example of national interests conflicting with the goals of supranationalist institutions like NATO and the EU.

By diverging from NATO strategy — which depends on providing Ukraine aid — Slovakia mostly damages the cohesion of the alliance. Good relations with Moscow raise questions about Slovakia’s commitments to NATO, and whether or not Bratislava would come to the defense of all its members against Russia.

Additionally, such a position going relatively unpunished demonstrates to other allies (like Turkey or Hungary) that NATO commitments can always come second to domestic ones. Invitations to NATO require member approval, so Slovakia could lobby hard against Ukrainian membership as a way of pursuing an energy deal with Moscow.

To this end, Slovakia may support a peace deal with conditions that favor Russia.

Sources: BBC, Sky News, The Guardian

Trump Suggests Retaking Panama Canal

Summary
On 21 December, President-elect Trump posted on Truth Social that under his term, the US may reacquire the Panama Canal from Panama due to the “ridiculous” fees the US is charged for its use. The President of Panama responded to Trump’s statement, saying the canal “belong to Panama and will continue belonging to Panama.” Trump responded on Truth Social with “We’ll see about that!”

Findings

• Trump’s Post: In his post, Trump lays out the high cost of building the canal — in dollars and lives. Trump also referenced the historical need for the canal, and states President Carter was foolish to give it away. Trump specifically mentions that the US is being ripped off, as Panama charges high-cost fees for the canals use. Trump also alludes to China having oversight in the canals management and usage, a strategic threat if true.
  Trump stated if the legal and moral principles of Carter’s deal cannot be adhered to, his administration will demand the return of the canal to the United States.

• Panama Canal: Border Report claims that Panama’s transit fees at the canal range from $0.50 to $300,000 per vessel. Data from 2021 shows that 72.5% of all ships transiting the canal were American in origin.

• China: A Global Times propaganda piece promoted China’s support for Panama and its control of the canal. The piece, which called the canal “a great creation of the people of Panama,” aims to establish China as a defender of native sovereignty and international law. It also aims to disassociate any efforts by China to control the canal or influence its operations. In 2017, for example, China tried to secure a deal with Panama to use Huawei communications infrastructure to manage the canal — a deal that was thwarted by the US ambassador and General Dynamics.

Why This Matters
Trump’s comments are significant because of the implications — Panama could be aggressively coerced into providing the US favorable rates to transit the canal, but Panama would be unlikely to return it to US control.

This is where Trump’s style — provocative, aggressive, and jesting — leave room for more dangerous implications. The US and Panama could experience a complete deterioration of diplomatic relations if Trump pursues the policy and rhetoric he has alluded to. In that instance, if a deal were un-negotiable, Trump could deploy US troops to Panama to seize the canal through emergency powers.

The last time the US military was significantly involved in Panama’s affairs was in the 1980s in order to depose dictator Manuel Noriega.

Sources: Border Report, Truth Social, Truth Social, Panama Canal, Global Times

First Army Unit Successfully Tests Next-Gen TITAN Intelligence Platform

Summary
On 18 December, the US Army announced that the 1st Multi-Domain Task Force (1st MDTF) received the first Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN). TITAN is a next-generation ground-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) system that uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to process sensor data. The system was delivered in July 2024 but is now operational.

Findings

• Capabilities: TITAN uses Palantir AI technology for near-instantaneous analysis of multi-domain sensor data. TITAN can receive data from various space, air, and ground sensors for correlation and analysis that supports battlefield targeting and decisionmaking.

• Battlefield Impact: By enabling real-time threat detection and assessment, TITAN supposedly allows for soldiers to make faster, easier decisions relating to operations on the battlefield. Rapid and safe employment of US weapons systems should be a significant improvement to the US “kill chain,” a persistent concern in C4/ISR operations.

• Revolutionizing Intelligence: Palantir and the US Army are convinced that TITAN — which is the first of its kind — will revolutionize intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination. On 2 December, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released a new edition of Intelligence Community Standard (ICD) 206. The new standard, ICD 206-01, includes tradecraft guidance for artificial intelligence, indicating a growing capability/demand relationship in AI.

Why This Matters
The integration of TITAN into the Army — which reportedly occurred in only a few years — is a critical advancement for C4/ISR operations.

Think about the missions intelligence is supposed to support; the deployment of forces, coordinating strikes, planning logistics, recognizing threats and opportunities, etc. The ability for large pools of data to be analyzed and disseminated to leaders in real-time allows for constant updates on battlefield realities, allowing for better employment of assets across the joint force.

One thing that is also critical — which no one seems to discuss — is that TITAN does not remove or restrict the human factor from intelligence. Tradecraft guidance establishes a human factor as the critical link between data and intelligence; that only humans can make natural inferences, gut reactions, and decisions related to data and the world around them.

Sources: US Army, ODNI, Palantir

China To Construct Central Asian Railway, Faces Rebel Threats

Summary
On 25 December, the Global Times reported that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will begin construction on 27 December. The railway is expected to be a critical line in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia — a project that has taken more than 20 years to negotiate.

Findings

• CKU Railway: China calls the railway a testament to growing regional development and the desire for Central Asia to act as the “strategic bridge between the East and West.” The 450 km railway will extend from the existing line in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China. A report by GIS Reports claims the line will move 15 million tons of cargo per year.

• Xinjiang: This is one of China’s western provinces that is home to the Uyghers, ethnic Turkic people who have faced repression, surveillance, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and re-education under the CCP. Xinjiang is geographically and culturally a part of Central Asia, and is critical to China’s BRI initiatives in the region.

• ETIM: The East Turkistan Islamic Movement is a Muslim separatist movement originating in Xinjiang. The group was founded by Chinese Uyghers. Many fled to Syria during Xi Jinping expanded genocide in Xinjiang. After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, ETIM fighters vowed to take the fight to China, liberate Uyghers, and establish Turkestan as an independent nation. China has repeatedly condemned the group and on 13 December vowed to “strike down” the movement.
  The US previously labelled ETIM as a terrorist group but dropped the designation after it said the group went defunct in Syria.

Why This Matters
The existence of ETIM in Syria, and its vow to come to China to liberate Uyghers, is proving to be one of Xi Jinping’s greatest, growing security concerns. Now, with renewed efforts, ETIM could see a boost in recruitment and foreign funding.

From Xi’s perspective, the group not only poses a risk to China’s nationbuilding in Xinjiang, but its BRI efforts in Central Asia. In the long-term, successful ETIM operations could derail the BRI efforts in Central Asia or inspire other Turkic people’s to take up arms against China or authoritarian regimes in the “stans” countries.

On 23 December, the National Endowment for Democracy hosted an event for Uygher Genocide Recognition Day, indicating Washington’s growing interest in supporting Uygher autonomy. Previously, lawmakers and activists have supported the Uygher diaspora, but with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and growing tensions between the US and China, the Uygher people could be getting more attention — and support — from the West.

Sources: Global Times, Newsweek, Global Times, GIS Reports, NED

End Brief

That concludes this brief. I hope you learned something.

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See you Sunday,

Nick