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Thursday Morning Brief (23-26 September)
Israel prepares an invasion of Lebanon, Biden addresses the UN General Assembly, and Zelenskyy plans to end the war with Russia. Plus more...
Nick
September 26, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. We are going to cover some new events, as well as continue our coverage of the UN General Assembly.
Give yourself about 6 minutes to finish this one.
Reporting Period: 23-26 September
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. Israel has launched a series of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Some see it as preparation for a ground invasion by the IDF. The US has urged both sides to reach a diplomatic solution.
2. Today, Zelenskyy will pitch his plan to end the war to Biden. Zelenskyy is expected to ask for more weapons and aid, but at an expedited rate. Russia still holds Ukraine’s eastern oblasts and winter is approaching.
3. The UN General Assembly began its General Debate. Various world leaders took the stage to address ongoing conflicts and concerns for the future. The assembly will conclude on 30 September.
4. 3,000 Congressional staffers had their information leaked on the dark web. A Swiss company said they found the information on the dark web, which was likely leaked due to staffer negligence and breaches of security protocol.
5. Congress passed a bipartisan spending bill. The bill avoids a government shutdown and will fund the federal apparatus through 20 December. The sole focus is now on election day.
Previous briefs this week: Pacific Weekly, Monday
Israeli Airstrikes Viewed As Preparation For Ground Operations In Lebanon
On 25 September, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) suggested that ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon could be imminent. The remarks follow a week of airstrikes against Hezbollah which have left more than 600 people killed.
Cross-border skirmishes between Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Israel increased following the 7 October attack by Hamas, but have seen exceptional upticks in recent weeks.
“Facing this, we need to change the security situation, and we must be fully prepared for maneuvers and action.”
The IDF had recently called up two reserve brigades for deployment to the northern border with Lebanon. Yesterday, Hezbollah launched missiles at Tel Aviv, the first time they have targeted the city.
Why This Matters
The United States and other leaders at the ongoing UN General Assembly have urged both parties to seek a diplomatic solution to their conflict.
The United States, who has deployed assets and personnel to the Middle East, is worries that a ground invasion of Lebanon would expand conflict in the Middle East and drawn in the US to protect Israel from greater repercussions from Iran, neighboring states, or other terrorist groups.
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TODAY: Zelenskyy Pitching Biden A Plan To End War With Russia
Today, amid the chaos and spectacle of the United Nations General Assembly, President Zelenskyy will be pitching is war-ending plan to President Biden. The plan has been a close kept secret, but AP News reports that it includes some of the following:
NATO Membership for Ukraine
Permission to use long-range weapons for deep strikes into Russia
Rapid approval and receipt of more military weapons and ammunition
The plan also reportedly includes political, diplomatic, and economic factors - some of which might be intended to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Why This Matters
Ukraine has lost nearly one-fifth of its entire territory to Russia. The war has cost Ukraine, and the West, billions of dollars and thousands of lives. Russia, on the other hand, has suffered over 500,000 casualties to date, with some estimates stating over 700,000 casualties.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who was reportedly briefed on the plan, said it “can work.” It is uncertain as to how.
One of Russia’s causes for the invasion was Ukraine’s possible ascension to NATO (and EU) membership. If that is one of Zelenskyy’s conditions, it would be offering the partitioning of Ukraine with the Western half being totally out of reach of Moscow; a stance that is appealing to neither Ukrainians or Russians.
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Updates On The Ongoing UN General Assembly
On 24 September, the General Debate of the 7th UN General Assembly Began. The theme of the General Debate is “Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.” What this means or how it is possible is, clearly, up for debate.
The session will continue to the 28th, with the General Assembly concluding on 30 September.
Here is some of what was covered:
President Biden’s Speech. President Biden’s final address to the UN ensured the world that the US will not retreat from international affairs. Biden addressed the Israel-Hamas war, the crisis in Sudan, a concern for AI, and Ukraine and Russia. Biden is traveling to Africa this week to meet with regional leaders.
Biden’s message of optimism is overshadowed by the Afghan Withdrawal Disaster, two new wars, and a destabilizing Indo-Pacific.
President Zelenskyy’s Speech. President Zelenskyy took to the stage to claim Russia cannot defeat Ukraine on the battlefield. Zelenskyy said that Russia instead targets vital Ukrainian infrastructure at the onset of winter. He urged UN leaders to imagine if in their own country, 80% of their infrastructure was destroyed. Whether this number is accurate to Ukraine is uncertain.
Amir of Qatar’s Speech. The Amir of Qatar stated that the world community bears responsibility for the situation in Gaza. He stated that as we approach almost a year of war, Israel can no longer claim self-defense to justify their operations. The Amir stated Qatar will work towards mediating peace.
Qatar is a known supporter and financer of Hamas.
Why This Matters
Some of what has been covered during the assembly highlights the power and prestige of the UN as well as its chaotic, inefficient, and confused status.
The UN should be a forum for diplomacy and compromise to reign over the worst in our nature. Instead, the state proxies to terrorist organizations and hybrid warfare practitioners are given the stage.
The 79th session has so far shown that the spirit of the UN is better than the institution itself, and that principles of decency, harmony, and cooperation are not yet global norms.
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3,000 Congressional Staffers Personal Information Leaked Across Dark Web
On 24 September, Newsweek reported that Proton, a Swiss firm, discovered that 1 in 5 US Congress staffers had personal information leaked on the dark web.
“Many of these leaks likely occurred because staffers used their official email addresses to sign up for various services, including high-risk sites such as dating and adult websites, which were later compromised in data breaches”
Why This Matters
Proton’s investigation highlights wide-sweeping security negligence and the ease of skirting protocol by Congressional staffers. Proton contacted those who were affected by the leaks, and says it will continue to do so. Proton also said they will release information around the leaks if they think it could harm the fairness of upcoming US elections.
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Coverage by Newsweek
(Thanks to our reader John for alerting us to this event)
Congress Approves Bill, Avoiding Shutdown
On 25 September, Congress approved a bill to find the government through 20 December. For now, the debate on 2025 funding is at a standstill and will be readdressed after the election cycle ends. 86 Republicans opposed the bill, as they are looking to slash spending on bloated government programs.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said that the full focus is now on the upcoming election on 5 November.
Why This Matters
Republican disunity is up against a united Democratic party in Congress. Republicans seem dependent on former President Trump securing an election victory before unifying across a party line.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by NPR
End Brief
That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. I hope you finish the week strong and enjoy the weekend.
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Thanks for reading and see you on Sunday,
Nick