Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review some key updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 24-27 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Nominates Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff

Summary
On 21 February, after removing General C.Q. Brown and Admiral Lisa Franchetti from their posts, President Trump nominated John Caine for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Trump’s nomination suggests the DOD may soon have a greater focus on unconventional warfare and gray zone competition.

Findings

• Firings: On 21 February, President Trump and Secretary of State Hegseth fired General C. Q. Brown and Admiral Lisa Franchetti from their posts.

• Nomination: On 21 February, Trump also announced he was nominating retired Air Force Lieutenant General John D. Caine for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

• John Caine: CNN has reported Caine, the career F-16 pilot, was selected due to his extensive experience in the special operations community and his apolitical demeanor. CNN noted it is unusual for a retired official to be recalled to active service, and even more unusual to do so and receive “their fourth star” (i.e. promotion to General).
  President Trump met Caine in Iraq during his first presidential term, and said he was “instrumental in the complete annihilation of the ISIS caliphate.”

Why This Matters
Caine’s nomination, if approved, indicates Trump’s desire to achieve his “Peace Through Strength” foreign policy concept. Trump and Hegseth are on a warpath to establish a bipartisan, highly lethal, warfighting-centric military. If Caine’s reputation matches what his peers have said of him, then he is the man for the job.

Additionally, as estimated by Defense One, Caine’s placement may indicate a new approach to warfighting and foreign policy in a world of increasing proxy conflict, gray zone competition, and hybrid warfare.

I think it is particularly important to note that Caine’s appointment likely has a lot to do with his Middle East experience, given the looming possibility of the U.S. and Israel carrying out precise yet large-scale strikes on sensitive Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Caine has over 150 combat flight hours, organized a clandestine campaign against ISIS, and “hunted SCUD missiles” in Iraq in 2003.

Sources: CNN, NPR, Defense One

Significant Developments Regarding Russia-Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Summary
This week, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution attributing Moscow’s undeniable role in starting the Ukraine conflict. Similarly, the EU and UK announced new sanctions packages aimed at hindering Russia’s ability to wage war and rebuild its military.

Findings

• Russian Sanctions: On 23 February, the EU Commission announced it had adopted its 16th sanctions package against Russia. This sanctions package targets Russia’s economy, specifically energy, trade, transportation, infrastructure, and financial sectors. This package includes sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers. The commission also announced that, in an effort to avoid Msocow subverting sanctions, it is applying them to Belarus. The EU is also “strengthening its sanction regimes” in Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in Ukraine, which are Russian-controlled.
  At the same time, the United Kingdom announced it was implementing 107 similar sanctions against Russia, the largest UK sanctions package since 2022.

• UN General Assembly: On 24 February, the UN General Assembly convened in Brussels. During the session, two resolutions calling for an end to the war in Ukraine were adopted.
  In the resolution presented by Ukraine and the EU, there were critical amendments before its acceptance: Russia’s responsibility for starting the conflict, commitments to Ukrainian sovereignty, and peace in accordance with the UN Charter. Russia also proposed an amendment calling for “root causes” of the conflict to be addressed, which was approved.

  • EU-Ukraine Resolution: The European Union and Ukraine co-sponsored a resolution that received 93 votes in favor, 18 against, and 65 abstentions. Of note were the U.S. and Russia who voted against the resolution. The U.S. voted against the resolution, instead favoring its own.

  • U.S. Resolution: The UN Security Council — which is made of 5 permanent members and 10 rotating ones — voted 10 in favor with 5 abstentions. The U.S. resolution does not attribute blame to Russia but calls for a swift end to the conflict.

  The rift in the UN, and between European allies, seem to be along lines of principle. European allies voted for the EU-Ukraine resolution due to it attributing Russia’s aggressive violation of international law as the cause of the war. The U.S. envoy to the UN said similar resolutions have done nothing to end the war, hence the U.S. “no” vote.
  It is likely that the U.S. voting was done to appease bilateral interests and reject the slogging, disjointed interests of supranationalist organizations like the UN and EU, suggesting action should take priority over rhetoric.

• Russia’s Stance: Putin and the Kremlin have voiced their satisfaction with recent U.S.-Russian bilateralism. Putin, who previously said a strong foundation between Russia and the U.S. was essential for a deal, is now expressing increased interest in beginning negotiations.
  On 24 February, Putin stated that Europe is needed in peace negotiations. The week prior, he said talks would also require Ukraine’s presence, indicating the private U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia were focused on bilateral relations.
  On 23 February, TASS reported that Russia will address “irritants” at the core of U.S.-Russian relations this week. This almost certainly includes NATO expansion, U.S. troops deployments to Europe, nuclear armament, the new rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, and Western sanctions.

• Aid to Ukraine: Lithuania and Sweden have announced continued military aid to Ukraine.

  • Lithuania: President Nauseda said Lithuania will soon deliver RBS-70 Short-Range Air Defense Systems to Ukraine.

  • Sweden: Sweden announced it is transferring $113 million worth of air defense assets to Ukraine. The package includes Robot 70 and Tridon Mk2 systems.

Why This Matters
The latest UN resolutions and sanctions against Russia highlight deepening geopolitical divisions over Ukraine. While the EU and UK continue to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, the U.S. is taking a more pragmatic stance, prioritizing diplomatic maneuverability over symbolic condemnations. The rift within the UN—where the U.S. opposed the EU-Ukraine resolution—suggests Washington is balancing its support for Ukraine with a willingness to engage Moscow in bilateral talks. Russia, meanwhile, appears to be leveraging these shifts to push for negotiations that include both the U.S. and Europe, signaling a potential opening for diplomacy. However, with continued military aid from Sweden and Lithuania reinforcing Ukraine’s defenses, the battlefield dynamics remain unchanged, prolonging the conflict and, possibly, negotiations.

For the U.S., this approach allows flexibility in managing great-power competition while maintaining military assistance to Kyiv. For Ukraine and Europe, the sanctions and aid provide critical support but highlight the challenges of securing full Western unity. For Russia, the new sanctions hurt its economy, but Putin's interest in negotiations suggests he may be exploring options to break Western cohesion. Ultimately, the developments reinforce the complexity of reaching peace, as military, economic, and diplomatic pressures continue to shape the war’s trajectory.

Sources: NPR, Reuters, Yahoo, EU Commission, UK Government, Andalu Ajansi, The Kyiv Independent

Taiwan Boards Chinese Commercial Vessel Caught In Act Of Sabotage

Summary
On 25 February, Taiwanese sailors boarded a vessel suspected of undersea cable sabotage. They detained the Chinese crew. Despite denying the incident or ownership of the vessel, the incident is likely to yield a response by the CCP and PLA.

Findings

• Incident: On 25 February, the Taiwanese Coast Guard intercepted a commercial vessel suspected of cutting an undersea internet cable. Despite having an all-Chinese crew, the vessel Hong Tai was flying a “flag of convenience” (i.e. one of a country other than the ship’s origin).
  The Taiwanese Coast Guard detained the sailors.

• Monitoring: Taiwanese officials say the Hong Tai had been loitering near the undersea cables since Saturday and did not respond to being hailed.
  When the vessel dropped anchor on Tuesday, telecom company Chunghwa Telecom reported an outage between mainland Taiwan and Penghu Island.

• Previous Incidents: In January 2025, Taiwanese officials accused a Chinese cargo vessel of cutting an undersea cable on Taiwan’s northern coast. Before that, a Chinese vessel departing Russia cut an undersea cable in the Baltic Sea.

• Chinese Response: China has avoided direct affiliation with the event. In a Global Times piece, the CCP actively deny responsibility by highlighting the ship being registered in Tongo. The article makes no mention of the Chinese crew. China’s Foreign Ministry responded with the following statement:

Why This Matters
The incident suggests a growing frequency of Chinese “gray zone tactics” aimed at destabilizing and intimidating Taiwan.

Despite denying responsibility or oversight of the incident, the CCP is likely to develop a counter-narrative condemning the Taiwanese government of violating international maritime laws. Additionally, the PLA is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of Taiwan to conduct retaliatory military exercises.

Sources: CNN, AP News, Global Times

U.S. Secures Minerals Deal With Ukraine Beating EU, Russia

Summary
President Zelenskyy will travel to Washington on Friday, 28 February, to sign a strategic mineral deal with President Trump. The deal is intended to repay the U.S. for its financial and military support to Ukraine.

Findings

• U.S. Deal: President Zelenskyy announced that he and Trump have agreed to a deal regarding Ukraine’s rare earth materials. He will travel to Washington tomorrow, 28 February, to sign the deal with President Trump.
  Trump has previously stated U.S. access to Ukraine’s “rare earths” would be necessary for Washington to continue supporting Kyiv.
  CNN reports that Trump has demanded “a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earths and other minerals” in gratuity for previous U.S. aid and support in future reconstruction efforts.
  The U.S. and Ukraine will reportedly share access to a joint “reconstruction Investment Fund” which will receive revenues from Ukraine’s natural resource extraction, refinement, or sale.

• Missing Details: According to RFE/RL, the principle deal does not include the following:

  • Conventional U.S. security guarantees

  • Details on the fund’s ownership and governance

  • Congressional approval (U.S. treaties need approval from Congress)

• Russian Offer: On 25 February BBC reported that Russia had offered the U.S. access to rare earth material, including from Russia and occupied territories in Ukraine, following a peace deal.

• EU Commission Offer: Despite denying the claim, the EU Commission reportedly offered Ukraine a “mutually beneficial” and “win-win” deal on Ukraine’s rare earth materials.

Why This Matters
Media coverage suggests that Trump is taking undue advantage of Ukraine’s dire situation. When asked what Ukraine would receive in the deal — apart from support in reconstruction efforts — Trump stated that Ukraine has benefitted from “$350 billion” in aid, which gave Kyiv “the right to fight on.”

Additionally, Trump made another interesting statement:

Trump’s statement suggests that the mineral deal will increase the U.S.’s stake and interest in Ukraine and will provide Kyiv with security guarantees in lieu of NATO membership.

So far, France and the UK have agreed to send military personnel to Ukraine to act as peacekeepers if a deal is reached with Russia. While Trump has not made such commitments, instead raising questions about America’s alignment with NATO and Ukraine, it is possible the U.S. could still offer security guarantees.

If the U.S. invests significant funds towards Ukraine’s reconstruction, and joint ventures to extract these minerals, it is possible that those efforts could include unconventional security options. For example, following Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would “own” and rebuild Gaza, security contractors reportedly entered the Gaza Strip to enforce ceasefire conditions and secure borders.

Sources: CNN, ABC News, BBC, The Kyiv Independent, RFE/RL

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thanks for reading!

Enjoy your weekend.

Nick