Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review the most critical geopolitical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 24-27 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Saudi Arabia Talks Results In Partial Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire

Summary
The United States announced that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a partial ceasefire. It includes measures intended to pacify the Black Sea. These agreements emerged from three days of talks in Saudi Arabia. Discussions are ongoing regarding a 30-day ceasefire for strikes against energy infrastructure and the potential restoration of grain exports from both nations.

Findings

• Black Sea Security and Trade: The partial ceasefire includes ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea, eliminating the use of force by maritime assets, and preventing the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. The U.S. has committed to helping Russia restore its agricultural and fertilizer exports by addressing maritime insurance costs and improving access to global markets. Talks also included the potential resumption of Ukrainian and Russian grain exports, which are critical to global food supplies.

• Ceasefire and Infrastructure Protection: Negotiators are discussing a 30-day pause to strikes on energy infrastructure as a step toward broader peace talks. Despite these efforts, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure have continued.

• U.S. Diplomatic Position and Putin's Intentions: Despite growing sentiment in Europe that Russia is preparing an EU invasion, U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff suggested that President Putin does not seek to expand the war beyond Ukraine, indicating a possible shift in Russia’s strategic objectives. The U.S. remains engaged in diplomatic efforts but continues to balance negotiations with military support for Ukraine, including aid and intelligence sharing.

Why This Matters
These agreements signal a possible shift toward a full-scale ceasefire, though continued attacks highlight the fragile nature of ongoing negotiations. Ensuring Black Sea security is vital for global trade and offers both Russia and Ukraine a path towards economic recovery.

The 30-day ceasefire proposal could give Ukraine a temporary reprieve to reinforce critical infrastructure, but its enforcement remains uncertain. Additionally, U.S. involvement in the negotiations demonstrates Washington’s ongoing role in shaping the war’s trajectory, though skepticism remains regarding Russia’s long-term intentions. President Trump recently stated Russia appears to be “dragging its feet” on the matter.

Sources: ABC News, The Guardian, Newsweek, The Kyiv Independent

U.S. Intends To “Dismantle” Iran’s Nuclear Program, Pushes For Negotiations

Summary
The United States is intensifying its stance against Iran's nuclear program, with National Security Adviser Waltz demanding its complete dismantlement. This development occurs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, including U.S. strikes against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, Israel's recent operations against Hamas leadership in Gaza, and Israel’s final strikes against military targets in Syria.​

Findings

• Iranian Nuclear Program: National Security Adviser Mike Waltz emphasized that Iran must entirely dismantle its nuclear program, including weaponization efforts and strategic missile capabilities. He underscored that Iran cannot be permitted to possess nuclear weapons, highlighting the potential for a regional arms race and significant threats to U.S. national security.
  The scale of Iran’s uranium enrichment (over 8,000 kg at 60% enrichment, with 90% needed to be weapons grade) indicates Tehran is pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.

• Escalation with Iranian Proxies: President Trump has accused Iran of orchestrating Houthi rebel attacks on Western shipping routes in the Red Sea. In response, the U.S. has conducted airstrikes against Houthi targets, with National Security Adviser Waltz indicating that military actions against Iran, including targeting its nuclear program, are under consideration.

• Israeli Operations Against Hamas: Israel's military killed Ismail Barhoum, the newly appointed Prime Minister of Hamas, in a precision strike on Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. This operation is part of Israel's broader campaign to dismantle Hamas' leadership and military capabilities in Gaza following the collapse of the ceasefire.

• Likelihood of Negotiations: Iran's leadership has manifested contradictory rhetoric regarding a new nuclear agreement. Supreme Leader Khamenei originally rejected a proposal to begin negotiations, which was sent in a personal letter from President Trump. The Foreign Minister Abbas’s comments were more diplomatic, suggesting potential indirect negotiations. However, the prevailing U.S. threats and economic sanctions continue to be significant obstacles to direct diplomacy.

Why This Matters
The U.S.'s firm demand for the full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program marks a significant escalation in efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Coupled with active military engagements against Iranian-backed proxies, these actions reflect a comprehensive strategy to counter Iran's influence in the region. Simultaneously, Israel's targeted operations against Hamas leadership aim to destabilize militant operations in Gaza, pressuring Iran’s hybrid warfare campaign, which likely reduces Tehran’s desire to turn to diplomacy.

Sources: Times of Israel, U.S. Department of State, CBS News, YouTube

ODNI Publishes 2025 Annual Threat Assessment

Summary
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, identifying the U.S.’s primary strategic threats. The report highlights China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as key state actors posing strategic risks, along with transnational criminal organizations and emerging technological threats. The report also emphasizes growing cooperation among these actors.

Findings

• China: China is the greatest strategic adversary to the U.S., with expanding military, cyber, and economic influence. China continues PLA modernization, aiming for regional military dominance and continued violent coercion of Taiwan. The report suggests PLA exercises and missile capabilities are improving. China’s cyber capabilities pose an increasing threat to U.S. critical infrastructure, with the potential for destructive cyberattacks in a conflict scenario. China is also pushing for rapid advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing, with goals to surpass the U.S. in these fields by 2030.

• Russia: Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia has adjusted its strategy, relying on asymmetric warfare, missile and drone strikes, and sustained offensive operations to seize Ukrainian territory and form a decisive battlefield position as peace negotiations continue. Russia is very likely to continue to conduct cyber campaigns against the U.S. and Europe, including espionage, disinformation, sabotage, and infrastructure targeting. As Russia expands its military-industrial cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea, it will continue to circumvent sanctions as Moscow looks to recover the Russian economy and rebuild its military. Russia will continue to capitalize on opportunities to destabilize NATO cohesion through political interference and hybrid warfare tactics.

• Iran: Tehran maintains an aggressive posture in the Middle East and is very likely to continue backing proxy groups across the region, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Iran possesses near-weapons-grade uranium and is likely to continue to develop its nuclear program despite U.S. and Israeli threats. Tehran is expected to expand diplomatic and security ties with Russia and China, particularly in the economic and defense sectors.

• North Korea: North Korea has been accelerating advances in ICBM capabilities. Tests have been more frequent and more successful in each iteration. Due to the 2024 Defense Pact, North Korea will continue to benefit from Russian assistance, including technology transfers and weapons deals in exchange for military support in Ukraine. North Korea’s cyber financial crimes are expected to grow, stealing billions through cryptocurrency heists to fund military programs.

• Transnational Crime: The ODNI identifies Mexican cartels, recently designated as terrorist groups, as fueling drug, migration, and crime issues across the United States. The ODNI also identified state-sponsored cyber actors as a growing threat to government networks, financial institutions, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure. Finally, the ODNI identified Russia and China’s growing space capabilities, which include anti-satellite weapons systems, as a growing threat domain.

Why This Matters
The 2025 ODNI report underscores the growing convergence of adversarial state actors, particularly in military, cyber, and economic domains. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly collaborating to challenge American strategy, leveraging military coordination, technology transfers, and economic partnerships to circumvent sanctions and counter Western influence. The expansion of cyber threats and transnational criminal activities further exacerbates global instability, demanding heightened intelligence and defense postures at a time when Western unity is under question.

Sources: ODNI

Senate Confirms Phelan As Secretary Of The Navy

Summary
On 24 March, the Senate confirmed John Phelan as the 79th Secretary of the Navy with a 62-30 vote. During his confirmation hearing, he emphasized the need for systemic reform in the Navy, citing persistent maintenance issues, budget inefficiencies, and declining force readiness. His agenda prioritizes overhauling shipbuilding programs, strengthening warfighting culture, improving service member quality of life, and increasing financial accountability.

Findings

• Shipbuilding and Readiness: Phelan seeks to address shipbuilding delays and cost overruns, ensuring that the fleet meets operational demands. He has criticized procurement inefficiencies that have led to an aging and shrinking Navy.
  On 25 March, Brett Seidle and Vice Admiral James Downey testified before Congress that despite the U.S. having the world’s best navy, Washington needs to urgently overhaul its shipbuilding.

• Warfighting Culture: He has pledged to reinforce warfighting readiness within the Navy and Marine Corps, refocusing on combat effectiveness rather than bureaucratic processes.

• Personnel and Quality of Life: Phelan aims to modernize recruitment efforts, enhance service member retention, and improve housing and mental health resources to combat high suicide rates.

• Financial Accountability: With a background in investment and asset management, Phelan intends to enforce stricter financial oversight, reducing wasteful spending and improving budget execution.

• Lack of Military Experience: Critics argue that his business background and lack of military experience make him unqualified for the role. Phelan counters that his outsider perspective will challenge inefficiencies and drive necessary reforms.

Why This Matters
John Phelan’s confirmation signals a shift in leadership philosophy for the Department of the Navy, favoring private-sector management principles over traditional military leadership experience. His focus on financial efficiency, procurement reform, and personnel issues could reshape naval strategy and operations in the coming years. However, his success will depend on his ability to navigate Pentagon bureaucracy, gain the trust of military leaders, and implement meaningful changes without undermining operational effectiveness. It is possible that Phelan will focus on shipbuilding and industrial concerns while leaving operational matters to senior Navy officials and the SECDEF.

With growing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, the effectiveness of Phelan’s leadership will have significant implications for U.S. maritime dominance, both short and long term.

Sources: USNI News, Marine Corps Times, Defense Scoop, U.S. Department of Defense

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thanks for reading!

Enjoy your weekend, and see you Sunday.

Nick