Thursday Morning Brief (24-26 June 2024)

Good morning! Take a seat and get ready for another Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

You can read this one in about 6 minutes.

Reporting Period: 24-26 June

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• President Biden and former-President Donald Trump will debate this evening at 9 p.m. ET.

• U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Israel’s Defense Minister to discuss the war in Gaza.

• The U.S. Marine Corps concluded a coastal defense exercise in the Philippines.

• U.S. Senators urged Panama’s president to crack down on Iran’s “ghost fleet” in their waters and ports.

• Military exercise RIMPAC begins today in Hawaii. It is the 29th iteration, and runs until August.

•  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III and Russia’s new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov spoke on the phone.

• Iran is holding presidential elections this Friday.

Reminder: Biden and Trump To Debate This Evening

On 27 June, President Biden and former-President Donald Trump will have their first presidential debate. The event is being hosted by CNN and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.

There are two debates planned, with the second being in September.

Secretary Of State Blinken Meets With Israeli Defense Minister
24 June 2024

On 24 June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The pair discussed some key items:

• The efforts towards reaching a ceasefire in Gaza

• The release of hostages

• Getting Palestinian civilians humanitarian aid

• Measures to protect humanitarian workers

• Plans for reconstruction of Gaza

• Methods to avoid escalating the conflict

In the same address, the Department of State reaffirmed that the United States has an “ironclad commitment” to Israel.

Why This Matters

The Biden administration seems more intent on publicly working with Israel to achieve their military goals as well as find a quick end to the war in Gaza.

On 10 June, Biden’s ceasefire plan was endorsed by the UN, and Israel appear open to using it as a guide.

Want To Read More?

• The press release by the Department of State

• Biden’s ceasefire plan in a previous Intel Brief

U.S. Marines Wrap-Up Coastal Defense Exercise In The Philippines
24 June 2024

On Monday, 2,200 American troops concluded a six-week long coastal defense exercise alongside Filipinos. The Archipelagic Coastal Defense Continuum took place across the Philippines. The goal was to conduct bilateral training and improve the Philippines’ ability to defend their coastline in the event of conflict with China.

Why This Matters

The Marine Corps has been recommitting itself to fighting and winning in littorals since the adoption of Force Design 2030 in 2020.

Coastal defense is a large part of what FD2030 is about; Marines quickly deploying across the Pacific’s littorals and destroying Chinese targets alongside native allies.

Want To Read More?

• Original coverage by Stars and Stripes

• Force Design 2030

U.S. Politicians Urge Panama To Crackdown On Iranian “Ghost Fleet”
24 June 2024

In a 24 June press release, Maine Senator Angus King announced that he and 8 other Senators signed a letter to President Cortizo of Panama, urging the country to crackdown on Iran’s oil “ghost fleet”. In an effort to skirt U.S. sanctions, Iran uses a “flag hopping” technique on its tankers.

The Panama Maritime Authority previously investigated these tactics and removed 32 Iranian vessels from its registry. Iran’s oil “ghost fleet” has more than 400 ships.

Why This Matters

Iran oil sanctions were imposed in 2018 and 2019. Iran uses illicit oil revenue to fund its nuclear program, as well as terrorism in the Middle East. Iran’s most notable benefactors are Hamas and Hezbollah.

Want To Read More?

•  Press release by Senator King

• More about Iran’s Ghost Fleet

Reminder: RIMPAC Exercise Begins Today

On 27 June, the 29th iteration of exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) will begin. RIMPAC is biennial, and includes 29 nations and over 25,000 personnel. The exercise takes place around the Hawaiian islands.

American And Russian Defense Leaders Spoke On The Phone
25 June 2024

On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III and Russia’s new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov spoke on the phone. Russia accused the U.S. of providing targeting data and intelligence to Ukraine, which led to a deadly strike on Russian targets in Crimea. Russia warned the U.S. to discontinue its aid to Ukraine. The U.S. maintains the position that Ukraine has the right to defend itself and is making its own military decisions.

Why This Matters

Russian and American relations are eroding as the war in Ukraine wages on, lowering the likelihood of effective diplomacy.

Various events have eroded relations in recent weeks:

• Russia threatened to deploy nuclear weapons

• Russian warships entered Cuba

• The U.S. and Ukraine signed a 10-year security pact

• Ukraine conducted a deadly ATACMS strike in Crimea

• Russia and North Korea made a renewed defense pact

• Russia allegedly shot down a U.S. Global Hawk surveillance drone

Russia has lost over 500,000 personnel in its war in Ukraine. Moscow blames U.S. aid and intelligence sharing for their failures. Russia has vowed further retaliation against the United States.

Want To Read More?

• Reuters coverage

• Eurasia Times report

Reminder: Iranian Presidential Elections Are This Friday

Iranians will head to the polls on Friday to vote for their new President. Back in May 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash while returning from Azerbaijan. There appear to be six frontrunners, but it is uncertain who will win and how Iran’s foreign policy may change.

Will the new president sympathize with the radical Khomeini regime, or will he be a reformer? The Middle East is currently at war due to Iran’s proxies. The Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas are all backed by Iran.

End Brief

Thanks for taking a look at another edition of The Intel Brief. Be sure to catch the next publications:

• Sunday SITREP coming 30 June at 0630

• Monday morning brief coming 1 July at 0630