Happy Thanksgiving,

Before you sit down for some good food and football, catch up on some important geopolitical updates.

Estimated Read Time: 6 minutes and 30 seconds

Reporting Period: 25-28 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Iran Plays Two-Sided Stance On Non-Proliferation As It Prepares To Attack Israel

On 29 November, Iran is scheduled to participate in nuclear non-proliferation discussions with officials from Germany, France, and the UK. The delegations will meet in Geneva.

Additional developments indicate Iran’s dubious intentions:

• 21 November. The United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned Iran for furthering its uranium enrichment at two nuclear sites. The IAEA condemned Tehran in June 2024 for similar violations.

• 23 November. Various Iranian faith leaders or parliamentarians called on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to abandon his fatwa that, allegedly, prohibits the production and use of nuclear weapons. The leader of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee threatened to withdraw from the nuclear weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

• 24 November. Khamenei’s senior advisor, Ali Larijani, stated that Tehran is preparing to “respond” to Israel’s 26 October airstrikes on Iran.

Comment: In Islam, a fatwa is a Sharia (Islamic law) ruling by a faith leader. The act of issuing a fatwa is known as ifta. While a fatwa is not legally binding in a non-secular sense, it is generally considered the highest guidance a Muslim can receive. Therefore, fatwa’s from high-level figures, such as the Supreme Leader of Iran, are considered commands backed by Sharia.

Why This Matters

Iran’s previous nuclear violations, which precede the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, indicate that Tehran may be using the dialogue to reestablish diplomatic normalcy with the West.

Additionally, the call for the Supreme Leader of Iran to rescind his fatwa indicate Iranian leaders are intent on expanding nuclear development. Azizi’s threat to withdraw from the NPT supports this assessment.

Issues with Iranian non-proliferation:

• Striking a deal. Iran is unlikely to recommit to previous terms that made up the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran wants to reserve the option to develop nuclear weapons if it so chooses. In fact, it intends to. Non-proliferation talks are likely a ploy to engage in other diplomacy and complicate the proxy war against Israel.

• Enforcement. Even if Iran would agree to a non-proliferation deal, the international community has proved unable to enforce it. Previous IAEA investigations, which continue to reveal violations, have only developed outcries and equally ineffectual sanctions. This is a trend that would likely continue.

However, under the Trump administration, Special Envoy for Iran Brian Hook states that Trump is likely to reimpose pressure on Tehran. If diplomatic pressure fails, and the proxy war continues to escalate, future Israeli strikes on Iran may include nuclear facilities.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• IAEA condemns Iran by AP News

• Insights by ISW

• Iran’s prepping strikes against Israel by Iran International

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Israel And Hezbollah Agree To Ceasefire Despite Recent Strikes

On 26 November, media outlets began reporting that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to ceasefire terms and will pause hostilities immediately. Under the agreement, Israel will have 60 days to withdraw troops from Lebanon.

CBS News reports that the first withdrawals will begin in the next 10 days. Lebanese soldiers are expected to occupy the areas where fighting was heaviest.

Netanyahu and Biden both spoke on the ceasefire:

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. He laid out three key reasons why he agreed to the ceasefire. First, that Israel is focusing on “the Iranian front.” He would not elaborate here. Second, the IDF needs a reprieve and must restock weapons and munitions. Third, Israel wants to close the “third front” in Lebanon. By not fighting Hezbollah, the IDF can better deal with Hamas.

• President Biden. Biden thanked France for assisting in negotiations. He highlighted America’s perpetual defensive approach to the conflict. Biden said that the ceasefire is intended to be “a permanent cessation of hostilities.” He reinforced the position that Israel maintains the right to defend itself. President-elect Trump reportedly endorsed the plan following a briefing.

Why This Matters

The conflict in Lebanon has left more than 3,800 people dead and 16,000 wounded. It has been Lebanon’s bloodiest conflict since the 1975-1990 civil war.

However, the ceasefire does not guarantee that the conflict is over. It is possible that Hezbollah, under guidance and support by Iran, could rearm and reorganize for future large-scale attacks on Israel. Hezbollah began its rocket strikes on 8 October 2023 in support of Hamas’ terrorist attack.

An anonymous Israeli official told The Times of Israel that the war against Hezbollah is not over. Stating the length of the ceasefire is uncertain, he said that “We will act” in the defense of Israel or against Hezbollah building up its capabilities.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CBS News

• Coverage by The Times of Israel

• Hezbollah’s recent strikes by The Intel Brief

• Biden’s speech by Fox News

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NATO Official Warns For Europe, US To Pivot Economies For War

Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer who chairs NATO’s military committee warned Europe and the United States to bring industries, services and logistic chains back under their own control due to strategic blackmail and sabotage by Russia and China.

Bauer alluded to Europe’s dependence on Chinese supplies, chemical and medical materials, and rare earth materials. He also pointed to Russia’s nationalized oil and gas industries. These are all examples of hostile states leveraging economic positions for strategic gains.

Why This Matters

Bauer’s warning addresses some key strategic concerns that are likely to increase as Europe and NATO grow unaligned from powers like Russia and China:

• Energy. Europe’s dependence on Russian energy has led to rising costs across Europe. It has also influenced domestic and continental politics with revisionist, anti-institutional parties securing greater roles in European governments and the EU parliament. This issue has complicated support for Ukraine in some countries, such as Slovakia, Hungary, and to some extent, Germany.

• Supply Chain. With China having a leading role in Europe’s supply chain, there are concerns that Xi Jinping could intentionally disrupt or restrict the flow of good and resources to Europe in the event of a hostile or retaliatory role to Chinese interests, such as an invasion of Taiwan.

• Manufacturing: Limited control over energy and supply chains risks supply shortages, threatening European manufacturers’ ability to secure key parts and materials. This would hinder NATO’s ability to develop weapons and munitions in a wartime scenario.

• Exports: Europe’s dependence on exports to China, particularly in tech and automotive, makes it vulnerable to new tariffs or restrictions driven by geopolitical conflict.

• Sabotage. Europe’s role in geopolitical affairs is likely to be met with increased acts of sabotage by hostile actors. Russia has already instituted a hybrid warfare campaign across NATO territories in response to support for Ukraine. These acts will only increase in scale and frequency as geopolitical tensions mount.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Fox News

• Coverage by New York Post

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Russia Reinforces Conditions To Begin Peace Negotiations

In a 26 November article by Russia’s TASS news agency, the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, was quoted saying that Russia will pursue peace negotiations if they are based on Putin’s June 2024 conditions. Similarly, Russian media outlet 1TV reported that Naryshkin is opposed to “freezing” the war and that the West are attempting to avert a strategic failure in Ukraine.

Some other considerations:

• Putin’s Conditions. On 20 November, the Kyiv Post reported that Putin was open to negotiations with President-elect Trump under the conditions that Ukraine drop its NATO bid and give up Russian occupied territories.

• War Support. On 25 November, a Gallup poll indicated that 52% of polled Ukrainians want negotiations to end the war as soon as possible. Nearly 38% of Ukrainians think the fighting should continue. The EU and UK are favored mediators over the US.

• Kremlin Acknowledgement. On 25 November, the Kremlin stated it was aware of President-elect Trump and his team’s efforts in planning for peace negotiations. The Kremlin snubbed Biden, stating while Trump prepares to secure peace he is looking to escalate the conflict.

Why This Matters

Putin’s current position on peace negotiations reflect previous assessments that Russia will continue to carry out large-scale ground offensives in Ukraine and Kursk. Additionally, Russia will continue to expand drone and missile strikes on key Ukrainian infrastructure.

• Russia is trying to make the situation in Ukraine more desperate in hopes of securing favorable peace terms.

• Russia is very likely to pursue negotiations with the Trump administration on the grounds of excluding Ukraine from NATO and Kyiv ceding Russian-occupied territories to Moscow.

• Support for Ukraine has fatigued western governments which has altered the political and economic landscape across Europe and the US. Pressure from voters to end the war may alter EU and US stances on support for Ukraine.

• Russia is likely to proliferate narratives that it maintains a superior position on the battlefield, has enough manpower to continue fighting, and is economically capable of supporting the war.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by TASS (this is a Russian state-media outlet)

• Op-ed by TASS (this is a Russian state-media outlet)

• Putin’s demands by Kyiv Post

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EU Parliament Approves Von Der Leyen’s Commission

On 27 November, it was reported that the European Union’s Parliament has approved Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission with 370 MEPs in favor, 282 MEPs against, and 36 abstentions. This is von der Leyen’s second term at the head of the EU Commission, and her right-leaning team will begin their 5-year term on 1 December 2024.

Von der Leyen was reelected in July 2024 but the mixed parliament struggled to confirm commission positions due to political infighting.

Background: The EU Commission is the main working body of the European Parliament. It proposes, scrutinizes, and amends legislation within the EU through subcommittees. Its members are appointed and are proportional to a European party’s number of MEPs in parliament.

Why This Matters

Von der Leyen’s commission has already been given a set of policy guidelines and goals. In her next 5-year term, she is focused on some big-ticket items:

• Economy. Prop up Europe’s Social Market Economy (SME) to re-establish Europe as an industrial and innovation powerhouse. Some challenges will include securing an energy deal to lower costs while working towards decarbonization, closing a skill and labor gap, and investing in supply chain sustainability.

• Environment. Environmentalism continues to overshadow European policy goals and ambitions. Von der Leyen has committed her commission to pursuing decarbonization policies, a 90% emission reduction by 2040, and formalization to the European Climate Law. This is likely to conflict with energy, economic, and security needs.

• Technology. The EU Commission is keenly aware of emerging technologies and associated threats. Von der Leyen proposes a cybersecurity plan to protect critical infrastructure and hospitals. She also wants to tackle the artificial intelligence issue and make AI safe, ethical, and useful tool in all domains.

• Security. Perhaps the commission’s largest concern is defense and security. Von der Leyen’s stance is that Eu security depends on Ukrainian security. She wants more aid for Ukraine while also proposing a European Defense Union. This also includes a European Defence Fund and a Single Market for Defence to coordinate European resources and infrastructure for manufacturing and procuring common defense equipment.

Von der Leyen has expressed interest in working openly with President-elect Donald Trump. She is hoping for mutually beneficial economic deals, continued support for Ukraine and NATO, and the possibility of a natural gas deal with Washington.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by POLITICO

• The EU Commissioners by EU Commission

• Von der Leyen’s political guidelines by EU Commission (important read if you have the time for it)

• How the EU works by CFR

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with friends and family.

Thank you,

Nick