Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s take a look at some critical updates from the week.

This is a good one!

Reporting Period: 27-30 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

REMINDER: U.S. Navy Bans DeepSeek

On 28 January, the United States Navy instructed all of its personnel that the Chinese artificial intelligence platform DeepSeek is not to be used on work or personal devices due to “potential security and ethical concerns associated with the model’s origin and usage.”

It is uncertain if the the entire DOD will follow the Navy’s decision.

Over the weekend, DeepSeek rose to number one on the Apple store and briefly tanked Nvidia’s stock price (due to Nvidia making chips necessary for AI technology).

Source: CNBC, NBC News

Rubio To Visit Panama As CELAC, South American States Rebuke Trump Deportations

Summary
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Panama this week. South American and CELAC nations have voiced their discontent with Trump’s deportation flights.

Findings

• Panama Visit: Rubio’s trip to Panama will be his first overseas visit as Secretary of State. Before his inauguration, President Trump teased that the U.S. could retake the Panama Canal due to Panama “ripping off” the U.S.
  Trump also alleges that foreign nations, such as China, have growing influence over the operations of the canal. It is very likely that Rubio will attempt to negotiate new conditions regarding the canal’s use.

• Rubio’s Visit: Rubio’s trip will also include visits to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rico, and the Dominican Republic. It is uncertain if Rubio will visit other leaders in the region amid growing tensions regarding deportations.

• CELAC: The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) has called for an “emergency” meeting of member states after a deportations fiasco between the U.S. and Colombia:

  • U.S. military flights carrying Colombian nationals were denied entry into Colombia.

  • Trump instituted an immediate 25% tariff on all Colombian goods entering the U.S., and threatened to raise it to 50% if flights with deportees were not accepted.

  • Colombian President Petro folded within the hour and said flights would be accepted, but said he would resist Trump’s policies.

  • Petro will attend the CELAC meeting and assume the presidency of the organization.

Why This Matters
While some nations are joining with CELAC to organize a collective solution to deter and resist Trump’s deportations, some nations (like El Salvador) are negotiating on an individual basis with Washington.

Of note, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico have strongly condemned or resisted Trump’s deportation policies. Many nations do not want to accept their citizens due to potential impacts to housing, local economies, or crime — a narrative that has given credence to Trump’s policies.

Sources: Latin Times, YouTube, POLITICO, NBC News

European Commission Renews Russia Sanctions, Negotiating Gas Transit With Ukraine

Summary
The EU Commission have recertified a series of Russian sanctions via unanimous vote following Hungary’s objections. To persuade Hungary, the Commission stated it would open negotiations with Kyiv on transiting Russian gas through Ukraine.

Findings

• Sanction Process: The European Commission must convene officials (in this case it is EU Foreign Ministers) to discuss and vote on sanctions. The vote must be unanimous. The Russia sanctions must be renewed every 6 months.

• EU Sanctions: The sanctions on Russia were scheduled to rollover on 31 January. On 27 January, Hungary lifted its objections and supported the vote. The sanctions target trade, financial agreements, energy, technology, industrial products, transportation, and luxury goods. Some of the measures go as far back as 2014 and the original Ukraine Crisis. The sanctions will need to be renewed as late as 31 July 2025, but a potential ceasefire or peace agreement could have them lifted by then.

• Hungary: Under Prime Minister Orban’s leadership, Hungary has logged various complaints in the EU regarding policy and sanctions against Russia. Along with the Slovak prime minister, Orban is one of Europe’s most pro-Russia leaders. Hungary’s economy is struggling due to its previous dependence on Russian energy. Hungarian officials lobbied the sanctions in order to compel the EU Commission to negotiate with Ukraine on a transit deal with Russia.

• Negotiations: Before Hungary caved, the Commission stated it was ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine. It also stated it was willing to include Hungary and Slovakia in that process. If the EU and Ukraine were to reach a deal, it would mean Russian gas could flow through Ukraine’s pipeline and into European refineries and markets. The U.S. and EU are looking to establish a natural gas deal.

Why This Matters
It is uncertain if EU sanctions on Russia were renewed as a means of pressuring Russia ahead of potential peace negotiations, or if Brussels intends to support Ukraine’s war effort until Trump and Washington outline a clear path forward. What is certain is that Europe want to limit Moscow’s ability to generate revenue for Russia’s war machine in the short term. However, Europe is running out of time and excuses — it needs a reliable source of cheap energy, and pressure from states like Hungary and Slovakia are picking up traction across the EU.

In regards to Ukraine peace negotiations, it is uncertain if the flow of Russian gas to Europe — which would be a huge revenue stream for Moscow — would make Putin more amicable or aggressive during talks.

Sources: Reuters, AP News, POLITICO, The Moscow Times

Trump Executive Order Directs Building Of American “Iron Dome” Missile Defense

Summary
On 27 January, President Trump issued an executive order directing the implementation of a “next-generation missile defense shield for the United States.” Trump says the systems would be built in the U.S., but did not elaborate on how allies and foreign firms would assist.

Findings

• Executive Order: The American “Iron Dome” would protect “the United States against ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks.”
  The order also includes securing the necessary supply chain and integrating various systems such as space-based systems, space sensors, terminal-phase intercept capabilities, and pre-launch termination capabilities.
  The order also orders the DOD to increase cooperation on missile defense development and operations with bilateral and multilateral partners.

Why This Matters
Trump’s desire to establish an American Iron Dome network is intended to address the growth of myriad threats from peer and near-peer adversaries: nuclear ICBM’s, conventional ICBM’s, hypersonics, and high-altitude surveillance aircraft and balloons.

For example, here are a list of some missiles that can strike the United States:

• North Korea: Hwasong-12, Hwasong-13, Hwasong-14, Taepodong-2

• China: JL-2, DF-31A, DF-5A/5B, DF-41

• Russia: SS-19 Sickle, SS-X-30 Satan II, SS-25 Sickle, SS-27 Sickle-B, SS-29 Yars

In China and North Korea, these threats are growing due to improvements to technologies and increased missile production.

The executive order also implies the development of offensive capabilities which offer a pre-emptive strike option (i.e. termination of objects “prior to launch”). It also implies the deployment of advanced air defense systems outside of the United States in addition to integrating the air defense networks of allies.

I think the timing of this announcement is also interesting. Trump wants to increase the U.S. relationship with Greenland. My estimate is that Trump will send envoys to Greenland — which has called for independence from Denmark — to establish a greater military presence there. If such a deal took off, it would likely include the deployment or air and missile defense assets.

Sources: The White House, The Times of Israel, Asia Times, Stars and Stripes, AOL, Atlantic Council, Gravely Naval Research Group

Trump’s Cold-Shoulder To Europe Prompts Scramble In EU, NATO

Summary
Secretary of State Rubio snubbed EU foreign ministers before calling the Commission VP. The Greenland crisis has European leaders wondering if Trump is serious about a forceful takeover. Both events have likely prompted the calls for greater defense spending in NATO as Trump’s foreign policy, and commitment to Western alliances, is under scrutiny.

Findings

• Rubio Snubs EU Ministers: On 27 January, Vice-President of the EU Commission Kaja Kallas stated Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not attend a regularly scheduled foreign ministers meeting. Kallas had invited Rubio — as the new Secretary of State — to attend and explain “the views of the United States” under the new Trump administration.
  On 28 January, Rubio spoke with Kallas via phone.
  Fears persist in Brussels that Rubio’s snub was a symbolic gesture, alluding to the possibility that Trump’s administration will favor bilateral relations over cooperation with the EU.

• NATO Spending: On 27 January, while meeting with Portuguese officials, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to boost defense spending to higher than 2% GDP.

• Greenland Crisis: EU leaders have scheduled a summit for 3 February to discuss Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. could forcefully absorb Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spoke with Trump after his inauguration where Trump was reportedly “deadly serious” about acquiring Greenland. On 28 January, the Danish PM traveled to Berlin, Brussels, and Paris to coordinate a unified stance in the EU against Trump’s threat.
  Greenland has already called for independence from Denmark.

Why This Matters
Trump and Rubio are signaling an early message to NATO and the EU before any major summits, negotiations, deals, or exchanges are made — Europe needs the U.S.

I think Trump is injecting a lot of intentional friction into affairs with European leaders and organizations as a way of coercing policy. Trump has a knack for making things happen by suggesting change — such as the ongoing scenario with Greenland.

Rubio’s snub of Europe’s foreign ministers also indicate this tactic. Rubio has been focusing on South America and making calls with other foreign officials; it is meant to show that the U.S., its hard and soft power, and the opportunities it can provide should not be taken for granted, and that Europe’s relevance (given various economic, energy, and political crises) is due in part to American gratuity.

My estimate is that Rubio will sit down with the EU Commission and NATO some time in February to discuss economic deals, tech and security cooperation, and the situation in Ukraine.

Sources: POLITICO, Reuters, POLITICO, POLITICO, POLITICO, France 24

Navy Says MQ-25 Will Fly In 2025

Summary
The U.S. Navy’s most senior aviator stated that the Boeing MQ-25 unmanned tanker would fly this year, and that carrier operations are soon to follow. The MQ-25 will significantly boost U.S. aviation capabilities.

Findings

• Announcement: This week, Vice Admiral Daniel Cheever stated the MQ-25 Stingray would be operational this year and that it would be conducting unfettered operations from aircraft carriers in 2026.

• MQ-25 Stingray: The Boeing MQ-25 is an unmanned tanker which is intended to refuel fighters while also conducting Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions.
  A 2021 test confirmed the MQ-25 as aircraft carrier capable.
  A 2017 article by USNI News reports that the Navy wants the MQ-25 to be capable of serving 15,000 pounds of fuel to fighters 500 nautical miles away from a carrier, a feat that would significantly expand the operational range and duration of U.S. fighters.

Why This Matters
Cheever was very clear about the impact of making the MQ-25 operational:

Despite this, there are still risks associated with the current level of autonomous flight, as two things in aviation are very difficult:

• The link-up between a refueler and a receiving aircraft

• Landing on an aircraft carrier

However, if the concept works and becomes operational, it would be a major leap in aviation operations. The MQ-25 would provide fighters in OCA (offensive counter air) and DCA (defensive counter air) roles a significant edge to flight time and range, in addition to updated intelligence pictures.

Sources: Breaking Defense, Boeing, USNI News

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. Be sure to reach out with any questions, comments, or concerns.

My email: [email protected]

Thanks for reading,

Nick