Happy Halloween,

This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are going to cover some high-level discussions from NATO and the EU, as well as some economic and political developments across Europe - spooky indeed!

Give yourself about 6 minutes and 30 seconds today.

Reporting Period: 28-31 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

🇺🇸 REMINDER: US Elections Next Week 🇺🇸 

Election Day is 5 November 2024. The winning presidential candidate will be sworn in to office on 20 January 2025.

Presidential Candidates:

• Republican: Donald Trump

• Democrat: Kamala Harris

• Green: Jill Stein

• Libertarian: Chase Oliver

Congressional Elections:

• Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for election

• This year, 33 states will also hold Senate elections. Find information on your state by viewing the current Senate election map here

🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 

Putin Commits To “Responses” If West Allows Long-Range Strikes For Ukraine

During an interview with Russian state media, President Vladimir Putin said the Russian Ministry of Defense is developing a series of response options in the event the West allows Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory.

Vladimir Putin and high-level officials have previously warned that such a decision would be met with serious repercussions. The West has taken Russia’s threats seriously and restricted Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied missiles.

With “thousands” of North Korean troops preparing for combat operations in Russia’s Kursk region, NATO is likely to re-evaluate its policy and allow Ukraine to strike deeper within Russia.

Why This Matters

In September, Putin stated that the use of Western-supplied systems, such as HIMARS, for long-range strikes would be considered a “direct involvement of NATO countries” in the war. From Russia’s perspective, this would warrant a significant military response against NATO countries.

NATO also considers Russia’s use of North Korean troops as a precedent-altering escalation, and one that is quickly shaping this regional conflict into a global one. Despite the tactical advantages it would provide Ukraine, it is unlikely that NATO will approve changes to long-range strike policies before US elections.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by POLITICO

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UN Security Council Discuss Israeli Strikes On Iran, US Issues Warnings

On 28 October, the United Nations Security Council met to discuss the recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and industrial facilities. In the meeting, Iran and Russia both accused the United States of being complicit in Israel’s operation, which destroyed key air defense sites and defense industrial facilities.

Russia claimed the US provided Israel with strike coordinates and other intelligence, and that Washington did not urge caution or a restrictive approach by Israel.

Israel called the strikes “measured and proportionate” and within its rights. Israel’s ambassador also urged the Security Council to impose sanctions on the Iranian regime to restrict its nuclear weapons development.

The United States reaffirmed its key position:

• To Israel. The US will continue to defend Israel and American personnel from Iran and its proxies. This includes intelligence sharing and military aid.

• To Iran. The US reserves the right to use force to protect US and Israeli personnel from future Iranian attacks.

• To the world. The US believes this should be “the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran” and that Iran’s proxies must cease further terrorist activities. The US wants to move towards ceasefire talks and the release of hostages by Hamas.

Why This Matters

The US warning to Iran establishes a new proverbial “line in the sand” which is reinforced by the superior military capabilities of the US and Israel.

The IDF strikes were a successful shaping operation. They have significantly limited Iran’s ability to defend itself from additional strikes due to the destruction of various missile production facilities and air defense positions. In theory, this also deters and limits Iran’s ability to carry out future offensive strikes against Israel or the US.

Due to upcoming US elections, Washington is likely to bide its time by observing Tehran’s responses and preparations for retaliation, but this doesn’t mean US-Iran policy won’t change. Further aggressions by Iran and its proxies, along with Iranian nuclear development and the illicit manipulation of global oil trade, could widen the American response options.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by US News

• Thomas-Greenfield’s statement by US Mission to the UN

• The entire UNSC meeting by C-SPAN

• Effects of Israel’s strikes by The Times of Israel

• Op-ed on what is next by The Times of Israel

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Boeing Looking To Restructure, Raise Cash Amid Machinist Strikes

On 29 October, it was reported that Boeing may be looking to sell portions of its aerospace business as it looks to slim down its manufacturing and operations support responsibilities. The sale would include the Starliner space vehicle program and parts of the International Space Station support systems. Boeing is currently struggling with cashflow, slow manufacturing, supply chain challenges, and an ongoing workers strike.

On 29 October, Boeing also expanding its stock offerings as a means of raising cash. Boeing is offering 112.5 million common shares for $143 with the goal of raising over $16 billion.

Background: On 13 September 2024, more than 33,000 Boeing employees went on strike after rejecting an offer of 25% increase to wages over 4 years. The strike is ongoing and has effected the manufacture and delivery of 737, 777, and 767 aircraft. It has cost Boeing nearly $5 billion to date.

Why This Matters

Boeing manufactures and services commercial airplanes and defense systems for more than 150 countries, indicating its crucial position in the aerospace and defense industries.

Boeing has more than 10,000 of its airliners in service worldwide. As one of the United States’ largest exporters, Boeing employs more than 170,000 personnel.

If Boeing is unable to address some of these strategic issues, the company faces layoffs, loss of contracts and funding, loss of revenue, and continued strikes by critical employees.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Fox Business

• Coverage by Benzinga

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Germany’s Rheinmetall To Open Four Factories In Ukraine, Ramp-Up War Production

In an interview with TSN, a Ukrainian media company, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger confirmed that the German defense contractor will establish four production plants in Ukraine. Rheinmetall owns 51% of this venture with Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC.

The first plant is already operational and should finish the first Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicles by the end of 2024. The second and third plants will focus on the manufacture of gunpowder and NATO-standard ammunition. The fourth plant will focus on the production of air defense systems.

Why This Matters

Rheinmetall’s expansion in Ukraine signals a strategic shift in Ukraine’s defense production, NATO standardization, and defense modernization.

• Domestic Production. By increasing domestic production, Ukraine can arm its forces quicker and at lower costs over time. Eventually, Ukraine could even export defense products to NATO.

• NATO Standard. By manufacturing weapons and munitions within NATO standards, Ukraine is setting itself up for interoperability with western systems and future integration with the alliance.

• Defense Modernization. By modernizing its forces with new weapons systems, Ukraine is able to bring greater combat power to the front. Additionally, newer systems means more rapid and effective servicing, as Ukraine has struggled to maintain older Soviet systems.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Army Recognition

• Original interview by TSN

• Rheinmetall website

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Election Turmoil In Georgia Raises Concerns Of Russian Influence

On 26 October, Georgia held parliamentary elections. They were Georgia’s first elections under the new proportional representation system. The Georgian Dream party, with former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili returning to the party, secured a victory with 53.94% of votes.

Georgian Dream is Georgia’s ruling populist party that promotes closer ties with Russia and EU integration through “Georgian rules.” Four opposition parties, fearing Russian alignment, proposed and anti-Georgian Dream coalition and received 37.78% of votes.

The election results have drawn international attention due to numerous reports of vote buying, voter intimidation, and political violence. President Biden and the Department of State have called for international and local observers to investigate the election results.

Why This Matters

Georgia is likely to experience further political and social unrest.

This election was preceded by a period of intense social and political unrest in Georgia. In May 2024, the Georgian parliament, led by the Georgian Dream party, passed the “Transparency of Foreign Influence” law, requiring organizations that receive foreign funds to register as foreign agents. This law, which President Biden has urged Georgian officials to repeal, has been widely criticized as an authoritarian move aimed at silencing government critics ahead of the elections.

Now that the Georgian Dream party has secured its position in parliament, concerns regarding alignment with Moscow persist. In 2008, Russia attacked Georgia, and the conflict resulted in the breakaway of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia.

It remains unclear how receptive the Georgian Dream government will be to Russian influence. The party asserts its commitment to pursuing EU membership, having applied in March 2022 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by the Atlantic Council

• Biden’s concerns by POLITICO

• Statement by the US Department of State

• The instituted foreign agents law by the Congressional Research Service

End Brief

That concludes this brief. I hope you enjoyed the mix of content.

Reach out with comments and feedback anytime: [email protected]

See you Sunday,

Nick