Thursday Morning Brief (29 July - 1 August)

Hamas and Hezbollah leaders taken out, Election turmoil in Venezuela, the Pentagon not up to standard, plus more...

Author

Nick
August 01, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

Welcome back to another Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This edition is one of the most critical due to so many major events happening across the globe.

What is covered in this edition is very likely to have ripple effects. Give yourself some time to get through it all.

Reporting Period: 29 July - 1 August

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. President Biden has proposed changes to the Supreme Court. Critics are calling this one of Biden’s last-ditch efforts to challenge a possible Trump presidency.

2. Both sides claimed election victories in Venezuela. Ruling despot Maduro claimed 51% of the vote after opposition leader Gonzalez secured 41%. By the way, Maduro’s claim depicted 109% voter turnout…

3. An AI-powered startup secured $200 million in Series C funding. The company aims to revolutionize how companies and governments manage and respond to global supply chain issues.

4. The Commission on the National Defense Strategy filed a report indicating that the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy (NDS) is not up to standards. The report highlights our poor posture for dealing with Russia and China.

5. High-level talks between the United States and the Philippines have resulted in renewed security ties. The U.S. will provide a $500 million package to the Philippines for defense.

6. Hezbollah’s senior military leader and Hamas’ political leader were killed in strikes. Iran has vowed vengeance, and fears that the Israel-Gaza War could spread are persisting.

Previous briefs: Sunday, Monday.

Check out the primer I wrote in The Havok Journal.

Would you refer The Intel Brief to someone?

(A colleague, family member, or friend)

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

If you said yes, consider sending this sign-up link to someone: https://theintelbrief.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Easy as copy, paste, and send!

⚖️ President Biden Proposes Changes To Supreme Court

On 29 July, The White House announced President Biden’s three proposed reforms to the Supreme Court:

  1. The removal of presidential immunity from prosecution for crimes committed while in office.

  2. Term limits would have the President appoint a Supreme Court Justice every two years for service of an 18 year period.

  3. Code of conduct changes would require Justices to disclose gifts they receive, refrain from public political activity, and remove themselves from cases with personal or familial interests.

Why This Matters

The courts are another political battlefield due to their role of interpreting the Constitution to inform law, and, therefore, shaping American ideological culture. That makes this a national security issue.

In 1869, reform led to the establishment of nine Supreme Court Justices as opposed to the previous six. In the 1930s, FDR tried to “pack the courts” but was unsuccessful.

Many critics think that this reform is against America’s tradition of separation of power and is “changing the rules.”

Want To Read More?

🗳️ Both Sides Claim Victory In Venezuelan Elections

On Sunday, 28 July, Venezuelans took to the polls to decide the future of their country. As results came in, both President Nicolas Maduro and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez declared victory.

Gonzalez’s camp came out early, claiming victory with 41% of votes. Maduro then claimed that 51% of the votes were cast in his favor, and he declared himself the winner. The total of polling data has not been released.

Several countries - including the United States, Spain, Italy, Colombia, and Uruguay - expressed doubts and alluded to election fraud. Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba congratulated Maduro.

On 30 July, widespread protests began across the country.

Why This Matters

Maduro has run Venezuela under socialist authoritarianism since 2013. He brought on massive economic collapse (a 71% shrinkage from 2012 to 2020) which spurred mass emigration from the country.

Venezuela was once an economic powerhouse in South America due to its oil.

Dual claims of victory, without verified voting results, leave Venezuela’s stability in question.

Want To Read More?

📈 AI-Powered Supply Chain Startup Secures $200M In Funding

On 30 July it was reported that New York-based Altana, an AI-powered supply chain visibility company, has raised $200 million for product development. Their product is a “value chain management system” that provides a customer supply chain data insights through Artificial Intelligence.

Altana hopes their product can solve security, sustainability, and procurement issues across industries that struggle with the volatile, shifting global supply chain.

❝

In this new era of globalization, it is crucial for all public and private organizations to shore up their supply chains and for the whole ecosystem to maintain a streamlined, unified information flow…

Peter Tague, USIT

Why This Matters

The global supply chain has seen a rise in disruptions this year, and the geopolitical climate in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East indicate growing risk.

Visualized, intuitive supply chain data could provide business leaders and government decisionmakers better insight into how industries shift, and how governments should engage across regions.

Want To Read More?

⚔️ Commission Concludes That Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy Is Inadequate

On 29 July, the Commission on the National Defense Strategy released a report indicating that the Pentagon's current National Defense Strategy (NDS) is outdated and inadequate for addressing the threats posed by Russia and China:

  • Outdated Strategy: Current NDS does not account for recent global developments, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, or the growing partnership between China and Russia.

  • Inadequate Military Structure: The U.S. military is seen as poorly structured to handle the dual threats from major adversaries, nor is the U.S. industrial base.

  • Need for Public Awareness and Investment: The report stresses that the American public is not fully aware of the risks and costs involved. It calls for urgent bipartisan action to make significant changes and investments.

The report suggests that the U.S. shift from a Cold War construct of defense and pivot to a flexible, global posture. The report also suggests the U.S. make a “Multiple Theater Force Construct” to align its strategic focus on Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Why This Matters

The report sows doubt on whether or not America’s leaders think we can win another global conflict or deter another security catastrophe such as 9/11 or Pearl Harbor.

Want To Read More?

🤝 High-Level Talks Result In Unprecedented Aid To The Philippines

On 30 June, the United States announced that the Philippines will receive a $500 million security package as a means of bolstering the U.S.-Filipino alliance. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III met with Filipino counterparts in the first-ever “two-plus-two” talks.

1. $500 Million Security Package. This is an investment into modernizing the Filipino military. The U.S. wants to help the Filipino military get advanced systems, such as Radar, aircraft, drones, and artillery and air defense platforms. This money will be used over a 5-10 year period.

2. Bilateral Relations. This is a recommitment to the American-Filipino partnership, and a step towards growing military ties.

3. Regional Cooperation. The Philippines has committed to working closer with other allies, such as Japan and Australia, as a means of deterring China at sea.

Why This Matters

The U.S. is bound to a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, but the alliance also shares greater economic and geographic importance.

The Philippines is located at a maritime gateway with the South China Sea, making their location important for future maritime travel. Additionally, conflicting territorial claims make the Philippines a target of Chinese aggression at sea, a precedent the U.S. is working to combat.

Want To Read More?

💥 Hamas and Hezbollah Leaders Killed, Renewed Fears Of Growing Conflict

In a 12 hour period, both Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in separate attacks.

Fuad Shukr (Hezbollah)

  • Hezbollah’s highest ranking military official

  • On 30 July, Shukr was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon

  • The U.S. assessed Israel was responsible

  • Israel confirmed it carried out the attack

  • Israel claimed Shukr was behind a recent Golan Heights rocket attack that killed 12 youths

  • Shukr was wanted by the United States for his role in organizing terror in Syria and for the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 241 U.S. Marines

Read more about this situation:

  • Hezbollah’s role in the Israel-Gaza conflict by CBS News

  • Shukr’s assassination and background info by CBS News

Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas)

  • Hamas’ political leader and chief spokesperson

  • On 31 July Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Iran

  • Haniyeh was attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian

  • Iran and Hamas blame Israel and the U.S. for the attack

  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the U.S. had no involvement or prior knowledge of the attack

  • Israel had previously vowed to kill Haniyeh for planning and carrying out the October 7 attack that left 1,200 dead, 240 prisoners

Read more about this situation:

Why This Matters

For months, fears persisted that the Israel-Gaza War could spill over across the region. With Iran vowing vengeance, and holding the United States partially responsible, an escalation looks more likely.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. It was a long one, but it had a lot of critical information.

Please consider sharing with friends, family, and colleagues.

You can email or text them this link: https://theintelbrief.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Thanks,

Nick