Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This week has been historic. Let's take a look at some of the high-level developments that occurred.

Reporting Period: 3-6 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Mexico, Canada Give In To Trump Tariffs, Commit To Bilateral Cooperation

Summary
This week, after threatening to implement a series of tariffs, President Trump reached bilateral border security deals with Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are postponed for a month as each nation attempts to establish a comprehensive economic plan with the United States.

Findings

• Tariffs: Last week, President Trump announced a series of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. A 25% tariff was to be applied to Mexican imports. For Canada, Trump applied similar 25% tariffs and a 10% tariff on energy products.

• Trump’s Calls: Trump spoke via phone with Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 soldiers to the border to combat illegal migration and trafficking. Canada agreed to a similar deal, investing over $1.3 billion in a border plan and the deployment of personnel and assets. Trump also announced a one-month pause in the tariffs, indicating that more negotiations are soon to follow.

• Mexico’s Statement: President Sheinbaum announced she had reached a deal with President Trump. The details reiterate what Trump announced via Truth Social. She highlighted that the U.S. and Mexico will prioritize working on security and trade.

• Canada’s Statement: Trudeau announced that Canada will invest $1.3 billion in a comprehensive border plan and deploy more personnel. Canada and the U.S. will coordinate on border security operations. Trudeau expressed his desire to reach a comprehensive economic deal amid the tariff fiasco.

Why This Matters
Trump’s tariffs, while drawing a great deal of criticism, are proving to be an effective tool for pressuring other policy interests. For example, Trump is intent on securing America’s borders as CBP and ICE oversee the deportation of illegal migrants.

While the tariffs are postponed, expect Mexico and Canada to heavily pursue dialogue with Trump and his team. Both nations are very likely to try and reach comprehensive economic plans with Trump, in addition to finding mutually amicable means of securing the shared borders.

Sources: X

U.S. Marine Corps Releases 2025 Aviation Plan

Summary
On 3 February, the Marine Corps’ Deputy Commandant for Aviation released the 2025 Aviation Plan which charts how the force will reinforce and modernize Marine Corps aviation operations. I have broken down the 44-page document below:

Findings

• Project Eagle: This is the Marine Corps’ strategic aviation modernization initiative. It is designed to model U.S. Marine aviation and support forces to manage crisis response missions while pursuing long-term modernization. Consider it a development roadmap for the next three years. It has some key focuses:

  • Advancing capabilities in Distributed Aviation Operations (DAO) and Decision Centric Aviation Operations (DCAO) in support of expeditionary warfare.

  • Reshaping the Marine Aviation framework to support maritime campaigns.

  • Integration of AI to support data/driven decisions.

  • Investiture into unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

• Readiness: The aviation plan also outlines the intent to pursue modernization, personnel recruitment and retention, making aviation-related training more efficient, and enhancing aviation-related logistics.

• Platforms: The aviation plan outlines improvements to air and supporting platforms:

  • The Marine Corps will expand F-35 B and C programs with the intent of becoming an “all 5th generation” fleet.

  • The MV-22 Osprey will remain the backbone of assault support and will undergo modernization efforts.

  • The CH-53E will be replaced by the CH-53K. The AH-1Z and UH-1Y will undergo modernization.

  • The Corps will invest more in purchasing MQ-9 Reapers and maintenance materials.

  • For Command and Control (C2), the Corps will expand the purchase of TPS-80 G/ATOR Radars and necessary maintenance parts in addition to acquiring Ground-Based Air Defense (GBAD) assets.

• Support: The Corps will enhance the 4th Marine Aircraft Wing’s (reservists) ability to integrate with active duty components. It will also invest in the Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One (MAWTS-1) to conduct operational testing and doctrinal revisions as new platforms and technologies hit the fleet.

Why This Matters
The Marine Corps’ 2025 Aviation Plan is one of those big announcements that will likely fly under the radar of mainstream media. The Marine Corps is investing heavily in survivability, new technologies to shorten kill chains, and sustainment to ensure well-trained Marines can conduct aviation operations with functional, lethal equipment. The Aviation Plan also has a huge emphasis on naval integration — this is critical as the Marine Corps is doubling down on expeditionary operations that will require support from the Navy.

The Marine Corps is the only force in the U.S. military that brings the organic ability to conduct combined arms to the battlefield — that is, it owns all of its own armor, artillery, and aircraft in addition to the forces that support them. For aviation, this includes aircraft and ground-based sensor and communication agencies (which we call Command and Control). This is only going to improve Marine Corps aviation with the acquisition of new aircraft and GBAD assets.

Semper Fidelis!

Sources: U.S. Marines, Deputy Commandant for Aviation

Trump Withdraws U.S. From Two UN Bodies

Summary
On 4 February, The White House announced a new executive order withdrawing the United States from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and the UN Relief and Works Agency for the Near East (UNRWA).

Findings
The executive order includes various changes and guidance:

• Guidance to the Secretary of State: The SecState must now review and report on which international organizations, conventions, or treaties promote radical or anti-American sentiments. UNESCO will undergo a review.

• UNRWA: Citing support for Hamas and other terrorist activities, the U.S. is withdrawing aid to UNRWA.

• UNHRC: Trump is pulling out from the UNHRC due to human rights violators having overpowered voices on the council, making it irrelevant (i.e. China, Iran, Cuba).

Why This Matters
Trump cited his stance from 2017 when he first withdrew from these organizations, indicating his intention to pressure the UN to change its standards and practices:

I think this is a part of Trump’s two-pronged approach to building an “America First” foreign policy: He is looking to make deals and policies bilaterally in a world that is becoming more “multilateral.” Trump also recognizes the ineffectiveness of the UN, and its value as being symbolic. By cutting funding, Trump is also standing on a platform of saving taxpayer money to fund American interests, not globalist ones.

While nothing really changes — unless you are a UN bureaucrat working at one of these agencies — the greatest risk for the U.S. is in losing “soft power” by abandoning support for these groups.

Sources: The White House, The Hill, NBC News

U.S. Announces Plans For Gaza Strip; Includes Occupation, Reconstruction, Resettlement

Summary
On 4 February, following a private meeting to discuss cooperation and strategy, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu held a joint press conference to highlight the U.S.-Israeli relationship, previous and current successes, and a new vision for Gaza and Iran policy.

Findings
This period marks a significant evolution in U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East. Because details are sparse, I will summarize what was covered in the press conference.

• Netanyahu Visit: Israeli PM Netanyahu is the first foreign head of state to visit the U.S. under the Trump administration.

• Trump’s Statements: Trump stated the reconstruction and occupation of Gaza should not be overseen by previous leadership (i.e. Hamas and its sponsors). He said the endeavor should include nations with “humanitarian hearts.”
  Trump halted a $1 billion arms embargo on Israel. He also announced the withdrawal from two UN organizations that have cooperated with Hamas.
  Trump also announced the restoration of his “maximum pressure policy on Iran” which will include energy sanctions to diminish a revenue stream for terror.

• Netanyahu’s Statements: Netanyahu began his speech with remarks of gratitude. Speaking of Trump, he said “you are the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.”
  He praised Trump’s initial withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal and the establishment of the historic Abraham Accords.
  He pointed out how Israel, with America’s help, has beaten Hamas and Hezbollah and crippled terror-sponsors in Syria and Iran.

• Reporter QA: When asked if the U.S. would send troops to Gaza to facilitate its reconstruction, Trump said he would do what is “necessary.” Trump reiterated that “we” are going to take over Gaza and create jobs and housing.
  Trump confirmed the United States will own the Gaza Strip, oversee its reconstruction, and the relocation of some Palestinians to neighboring Arab states. When pressed on where residents would go and who would reside in Gaza, Trump said “the world’s people” will live and work there; that it will be an “international” city.
  No one asked who will pay for Gaza’s reconstruction.

Why This Matters
The joint press conference signals a historic evolution in U.S. relations with Israel and its policies towards the Middle East. If the statements are to be taken at face value, this proposed level of interventionism and nation-building is a massive departure from “America First” rhetoric and “ending endless wars.”

Despite sparse details, the conference is an informal announcement of a renewed U.S.-Israeli Alliance which will include greater cooperation and investment in addressing crises in the region. The statements were very wishful and conceptual, emphasizing an approaching period of reconstruction and investment.

But between then and now, there could be renewed fighting in Gaza. Additionally, there is still uncertainty as to what the maximum pressure policy against Iran will look like. So far, Trump and Israel have not negotiated denuclearization with Tehran, and military strikes are not off the table. This seems like the celebration of an unachieved victory — a resurgence of the GWOT that also brings us to the cusp of conflict with Iran.

Additionally, there is no indication how neighboring Arab states will support or oppose this joint endeavor. Jordan, for example, stated it is prepared for war with Israel if Palestinians are sent there for resettlement.

The bottom-line is that if the U.S. — with Israeli assistance — will own and rebuild Gaza, it will have to ensure an end to war and terrorism in the region. This means some type of conflict will persist and could include the migration of Islamic jihadists to the region.

Sources: YouTube, Military.com, CNN, The Hill, Middle East Eye, The White House

Trump May Soon Launch “Overhaul” Of U.S. Navy

Summary
On 2 February, EurAsian Times reported that as U.S. shipbuilding is at an all-time low, President Trump is reportedly willing to outsource this task to defense partners and allied nations.

Findings

• U.S. Shipbuilding: In January, it was reported that the Navy would need over $1 trillion to build a fleet that can outpace China’s growing navy. Reportedly, China’s shipbuilding — while not necessarily superior — is 230 times larger than the United States’.

• Outsourcing: Citing an interview on The Hugh Hewitt Show, EurAsia Times reported that Trump may ask allies to build American naval vessels. Of note are Japan and South Korea. South Korea has the second-largest shipbuilding capability in the world, only overtaken by China in 2024.

Why This Matters
While President Trump has not announced any plans or funds to boost shipbuilding, his vision and openness suggest a deal/policy could be reached early in his term. Before his inauguration, Trump spoke with South Korea’s president about the topic.

Having a large, capable navy allows the U.S. to quickly deploy fighting forces around the globe. This is a core component of power projection and deterrence.

Sources: EurAsian Times, EurAsian Times

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. I hope you enjoyed this higher-level brief. I think some of these developments are going to be looked back on as core shifts in U.S. foreign policy and world history.

Thanks for reading,

Nick