Thursday Morning Brief (30 September - 3 October)

Iran strikes Israel after the IDF invade southern Lebanon, the Germans attempt to address their migrant issue, and NATO's new Secretary General takes the reigns. Plus more...

Author

Nick
October 03, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

This Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief covers some updates that will no doubt be considered historic. We are going to cover the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, the new NATO chief, and some other issues that the spotlight missed.

Give yourself about 5 minutes for this one.

Reporting Period: 30 September - 3 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. In Germany, the government will no longer offer citizenship to migrants who espouse extremist rhetoric identified by the state. The decision comes amidst growing support for the far-right AfD party, and a new policy of border checks and closures. It also follows a series of terrorist attacks by migrants.

2. Mark Rutte is the new NATO Secretary General. Jens Stoltenberg stepped down, as planned, after a decade of service. Rutte, the former Dutch PM, is expected to carry forward much of Stoltenberg’s policies and sentiments.

3. A US dockworker strike is underway. It will affect much of the East coast docks which usually handle 40% of all containerized goods. The strike will cost the US billions in as little as a week.

4. Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon which was met with an Iranian missile attack on central Israel. The IDF are in Lebanon to combat Hezbollah militants who have repeatedly launched attacks across the border with Israel. Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran.

5. Russia is increasing its defense spending. A proposal in Russia’s Duma revealed a $145 billion defense budget for the Russian military in 2025. That number is $30 billion more than in 2024. It is believed Russia is trying to prosecute a more offensive war in Ukraine.

Missed other briefs? Fear not; here is the previous Pacific Weekly and Monday brief.

P.S. - Take a look at my new opinion piece in The Havok Journal.

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Germany Tightens Citizenship Criteria Amid Terror Streak

On 30 September, it was reported that Germany will no longer grant citizenship to migrants who proliferate “From the River to the Sea” and “death to Israel” rhetoric. The decision comes amidst a series of Islamic terror attacks across Germany, growing support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and border controls by German security personnel.

Germany allows people who live and work in Germany for five years to become citizens. That law is now being tightened to exclude subscribers of state-defined extremism, specifically through a clause that highlights “Germany’s special historical responsibility for the National Social injustice” (i.e. their Nazi past).

It is unclear how Germany’s intelligence apparatus will monitor and enforce this change.

Why This Matters

Germany is facing various policy issues and declining support for the incumbent Scholz government. Attacks by migrants have fueled the desire for rapid change regarding a national Willkommenskultur (an attitude of openness to migrants).

Background: On 29 September, a 41-year-old Syrian national wounded 31 people when he set fire to two residential buildings in Essen. The man also rammed his van into a storefront then threatened bystanders with a machete. Earlier in September, a Syrian national was arrested for a plot to attack German soldiers with a machete while on their lunch break. In August, a Syrian man affiliated with ISIS killed three people and wounded eight in a knife attack in Solingen.

The AfD (and some far-left parties) have used these recent attacks to bolster its support. It is likely that the current government will lose seats in the upcoming election, signaling a possibility for major policy changes and a new government in Germany in 2025. Some opposition have called for the ban of the AfD party.

Want To Read More?

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Mark Rutte Takes Over As NATO Secretary General

On 1 October, Jens Stoltenberg concluded his decade of service as NATO Secretary General and handed the reigns to the former Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte. Rutte’s ascension to the top NATO spot was supported by President Biden and various European leaders.

Rutte is expected to pursue much of Stoltenberg’s ongoing policies:

  • Increases defense spending by NATO member states

  • Grow financial and military support for Ukraine

  • Align NATO against Russian aggression

  • Expand NATO activity with Indo-Pacific partners

  • Conduct more NATO exercises

Why This Matters

The Secretary General is NATO’s political leader responsible for the decisionmaking, coordination, and policy implementation across the alliance.

Aside from being a spokesperson and the head of the international staff, the Secretary General chairs the North Atlantic Council - the principal decisionmaking body of the NATO alliance.

This means influencing the NATO defense policy and engaging with member states. In 2024, some members (Hungary, Turkey, Slovakia) seem resistant to the current NATO direction, so Rutte is likely to attempt to reunify the alliance.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by DW

  • Rutte’s bio by NATO

  • The Secretary General position by NATO

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Dockworkers Strike After Failed Arrangements

On 1 October, union members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike after the organization failed to get arrangements from the US Maritime Alliance, the representative of 36 ports along the US East coast, stretching from Maine to Texas.

The union is demanding a 77% increase to wages over a 6 year period, along with guarantees that the industry will not seek advances in automation of cranes, gates, and container-moving vehicles. The US Maritime Alliance offered nearly 50% increases to wages, improvements to retirement plans, better healthcare options, and limits to automation.

An agreement was not met and the strike is ongoing. The union said it will continue to handle military cargo. Oil tankers, bulk carriers, and LNG carriers remain unaffected.

Why This Matters

The strike significantly harms the US supply chain and the cost of living. The East coast ports move more than 40% of all containerized goods. Estimates suggest that one week of striking would cost the United States $2 billion in lost goods.

Another estimate suggested that due to port closures, ships will remain backed up and ultimately delay their next visits to the US, thereby pushing these effects as far out as December or January.

Want To Read More?

(Thanks to our reader, Jake, for this sourcing)

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Iranian Missile Attack Follows Israeli Invasion Of Lebanon

On 1 October, Israel launched a series of “limited” ground incursions into southern Lebanon to target Hezbollah militants. Israel is capitalizing on the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah who was killed in an airstrike last Friday.

Israel says nearly 63,000 Israelis along the border with Lebanon are displaced. The UN says more than one million in Lebanon are displaced. It is unclear how far IDF troops will go into Lebanon.

The IDF also released videos, now circulating X, of Hezbollah tunnels that were being used to carry out another 7 October-style attack in Israel.

On 1 October, following US warnings, Iran launched a massive missile barrage against Israel. The Pentagon said that more than 200 missiles targeted Tel Aviv and other parts of central Israel. Much of the missiles were intercepted by the Iron Dome as well as US Navy destroyers.

One propagandist on X shared video of part of the missile barrage shortly after launch:

Why This Matters

Both Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and the latest missile attack by Iran risk escalating a wider war in the Middle East. Tens of thousands of US troops are currently deployed to the region, to include the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group. The French navy have also deployed vessels to the region.

The US has repeatedly urged all sides to seek a diplomatic solution and avoid escalation. Israel has vowed vengeance for Iran’s missile attack.

Want To Read More?

  • Ground invasion by NPR

  • Possible Iran attack by CNBC

  • Iran’s missile attack by USA Today

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Russia Proposes Record Defense Spending In Hopes Of Winning In Ukraine

On 30 September, a 2025 funding draft indicated that Russia’s government wants to spend 32.5% of its budget on defense in hopes of achieving victory in Ukraine. If approved, it would allot $145 billion to Russia’s military, a $32 billion increase from 2024.

Why This Matters

Putin is looking to win the war or find a way to make it economically sustainable. Earlier in September, Russia’s central bank raised interest rates to 19% in hopes that inflation can drop from the current 9% to 4% in 2025.

Russia has increased its missile and drone barrages across Ukraine and has gradually pushed Ukrainian troops back in eastern oblasts (most notably Donetsk). Putin also called up an additional 133,000 conscripts on Monday, signaling Russia’s intent continue offensive operations. Finally, Russian officials also traveled to Tehran, Iran to discuss Russo-Iranian military cooperation. Iran is likely to continue supplying Russia with weapons, particularly cheap suicide drones.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by CNN

  • 30 September update by ISW

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Please enjoy your weekend.

As always, thank you for reading!

I’ll see you on Sunday,

Nick