Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review a selection of critical geopolitical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 31 March - 3 April 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Iran Rejects Formal Denuclearization Negotiations With Trump Administration

Summary
Iranian President Pezeshkian stated Iran with not engage in direct nuclear negotiations with the United States. President Trump, who offered to begin negotiations with a formal letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei, has stated military intervention may result if a deal is not reached.

Findings

• Trump Letter: On 6 March, President Trump sent a letter to Iran’s leadership (President Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Khamenei) offering to begin negotiations on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
  In early March, Trump put a two-month deadline on reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran, with military intervention being a viable option if a new deal is not reached.

• Rejection: On 30 March, despite previously stating there was “no harm” in negotiating, President Pezeshkian stated Iran will not engage in direct, formal negotiations with the Trump administration.
  Iran is reportedly open to conducting indirect negotiations, likely through third-party mediators.
  Iran says it cannot negotiate with the United States until it lifts sanctions, especially those that target Iran’s energy industry and exports.

• Iranian Nuclearization: Iran has been rapidly progressing its nuclear weapons program, violating multiple IAEA regulatory inspections a part of the Iran Nuclear Deal. The IAEA previously reported that Iran has over 8,000 kg of uranium at 60% enrichment, with 90% enrichment being weapons-grade.

Why This Matters
Iran being open to informal negotiations is a critical detail, as it means a preliminary deal, if reached, could be discarded, backtracked, or violated in the future due to it lacking legitimate legal ratification. Additionally, it reflects Iran’s desire to use its rapid nuclearization as a tool of legitimacy, particularly as leverage to remove U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy exporting economy.

It is possible that negotiations could begin, through mediation, some time soon. However, Trump previously gave Iran a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal. By 6 April, Iran will have a month remaining if Trump is to be taken for his word, with military strikes, likely with the support of Israel, being the most severe option.

At the same time, Iran’s military leadership has proposed striking U.S. and British military bases in the Indian Ocean as a preemptive measure. In response, the U.S. has sent roughly 30% of its B2 stealth bomber fleet to the island of Diego Garcia.

Sources: CNN, CBS News, AP News

NATO Foreign Ministers Gather In Brussels

Summary
NATO Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet from 3-4 April. Agenda items indicate that NATO Foreign Ministers will clarify policy and coordinate efforts regarding Ukraine, defense in the Indo-Pacific region, and Europe’s ReArm Europe strategy.

Findings

• 2 April: On Wednesday, 2 April, NATO Secretary General Rutte held a pre-ministerial press conference.

• 3 April: Today, 3 April, is the first day of the Foreign Ministers' meeting. Here is the agenda:

  • Joint remarks by Secretary General Rutte and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio.

  • Formal working lunch of the North Atlantic Council.

  • Official photo session.

  • Meeting of the North Atlantic Council and the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4).

  • Remarks by Rutte and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.

• 4 April: Friday is the final session of the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting. Here is the agenda:

  • Meeting between the North Atlantic Council and European Union High Representative/Vice President (HRVP) Kallas.

  • Closing press conference with Secretary General Rutte.

Why This Matters
The meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers is significant given the recent rift between the U.S. and Europe. The EU, seeing a retreat of U.S. support for its economy and security, has launched the ReArm Europe plan to reestablish control over its own continental security.

However, because the United States remains the core contributor to NATO — and requires the alliance’s support in the event of a conflict in the Pacific — it seems that the U.S. is freezing out Europe to leverage a peace deal in Ukraine, end aid to Kyiv, and reestablish norms to the security environment in Europe. While the feasibility of this is not certain, it does appear to be the direction of this administration as it shifts strategic focuses on China.

Expect Rubio to address U.S. support for Ukraine as he pressures Kyiv to reach a minerals deal with Washington and a ceasefire with Russia.

Sources: NATO

China Launches Large-Scale, Retaliatory Exercise Around Taiwan

Summary
On 31 March, China conducted a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan. China conducted the joint exercise following U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s visit to the Pacific region, where he met with Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) leadership and officials of allied nations, such as Japan and the Philippines.

Findings

• Exercise Strait Thunder-2025A: On 1 April, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command stated that the PLA conducted a large-scale, joint exercise around Taiwan. The exercise reportedly included the PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, and PLARF. The exercise, according to South China Morning Post, has been dubbed Strait Thunder-2025A.
  Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense claims 19 PLAN vessels, including the CNS Shandong aircraft carrier, were present. CNN reports that 71 aircraft also participated in the exercise. Taiwan’s MOD stated the exercise concluded on Wednesday, 2 April.

• Chinese Justification: Chinese authorities stated that the exercises were a response to "foreign connivance and support to Taiwan independence," serving as a "serious warning" to the “separatist” government in Taipei. ​

• Taiwan's Response: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense monitored the exercises closely, tracking Chinese naval and air activities, and emphasized that such actions undermine regional security and stability. Taiwan stated its military remains on “high vigilance” and that aircraft, navy vessels, and air defense units were deployed to monitor the exercise.

Why This Matters
The recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, conducted in the immediate aftermath of Secretary Hegseth's Pacific tour, underscore escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

China's assertive maneuvers signal its intent to deter Taiwanese independence and challenge U.S. influence among its regional allies. The involvement of advanced assets like the Shandong aircraft carrier highlights China's growing military capabilities and its readiness to project power in contested areas.

For the U.S. and its allies, these developments necessitate a reassessment of strategic postures and defense commitments to maintain regional stability and deter a potential 2027 conflict.

Finally, the exercise’s designation of Strait Thunder-2025A suggests the PLA will conduct other joint exercises in this series — of the same or greater scale and scope — throughout 2025.

Sources: CNN, POLITICO, USNI News, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, South China Morning Post

Details Suggest Russia May Draw-Out Negotiations, Continue War

Summary
According to Russian state media, President Putin has ordered the conscription of 160,000 men despite ongoing peace negotiations and partial ceasefire agreements. The Kremlin has also shed doubt on its willingness to accept a peace deal in its current proposal state, with President Trump stating he will issue new sanction if he feel Moscow is intentionally delaying a deal.

Findings

• Conscription: Putin has ordered 160,000 men to supplement Russia’s armed forces due to battlefield losses. Newsweek claims this is Russia’s largest conscription effort in 14 years.
  According to TASS, the conscription period will be from 1 April to 15 July and will target men ages 18 to 30.

• Peace Plan: This week, Kremlin spokesperson Ryabkov stated that Russia cannot accept the current peace proposal — designed by the United States — due to it not addressing Russia’s core concerns and realities that, in the Russian view, led to the start of the war. Putin’s desires are as follows:

  • Ukraine recognize Russian rule of Crimea.

  • Ukraine recognize Russian rule of its four eastern territories currently held by Russian troops.

  • Ukraine remove troops from those regions.

  • Ukraine demilitarize.

  • Ukraine vow to never seek NATO membership.

Why This Matters
Currently developments indicate popular reporting and speculation that Russia may be using negotiations and formal diplomacy to disjoint western efforts and prolong the conflict against Ukraine.

While the conscription of Russian men indicate Moscow’s intent to carry out continued offensive operations, Russia will also need to enter a period of military reconstruction, meaning conscriptions may be likely to continue.

However, following Trump’s threat to institute new tariffs on Russia — particularly on Russian energy — it is possible that negotiation progress could backfire. This is exacerbated by the fact that both Russia and Ukraine, despite agreeing to a partial ceasefire, have violated those terms.

If Trump does conclude Russia is intentionally prolonging the war, and institutes sanctions, it is possible that Washington could resume significant military aid to Ukraine, a decision that would likely draw support and enthusiasm from Europe.

Sources: Newsweek, The Guardian

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you so much for reading.

See you Sunday,

Nick