Good morning,

This has been a historic week. Today we are going to discuss Donald Trump’s victory, an update on Russian relations, Germany’s political nightmare, and Netanyahu’s snub of Yoav Gallant.

Give yourself about 6 minutes.

Reporting Period: 4-7 November 2024

Bottom Line Up Front:

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Donald Trump Wins Presidential Election; Republicans Take Senate, Holding House

On 6 November, Donald Trump won the 2024 Election. Trump will become the 47th President of the United States.

Republicans also flipped 3 seats in the Senate to establish a 52:44 majority. In the House, Republicans are maintaining their majority.

After declaring victory, President-elect Donald Trump called for national unity to ensure the beginning of a new “American Golden Age.”

Why This Matters

Donald Trump’s landslide victory was the first time a Republican candidate has won the popular vote since George Bush in 2004. Donald Trump is also the first candidate since Grover Cleveland to win non-sequential elections.

The Senate flip is also historic for Republicans. A Republican congressional majority could give the GOP control of America’s legislative agenda, committee leadership, impeachment power, political appointments, and oversight and investigations.

From a big policy perspective, Trump is looking for economic reform and a foreign policy of ending wars abroad. Trump has stated he is committed to our allies, such as NATO, Israel, and Ukraine, but that some changes to policy precedents are likely.

Want To Read More?

• Election results by NBC News

• Election results by AP News

• Op-ed on what Trump can do for Europe by POLITICO

• Election results by AP News

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NATO Warns Of Increased Russian Hybrid Warfare, New Unseen Frontline

On 4 November, during his visit with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Russia is conducted “an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories.”

Rutte stated that Russia’s hybrid warfare operations are increasing in the Baltic, western Europe, and Scandinavia.

Russian hybrid warfare operations have included:

Why This Matters

For context, American, British, German, Polish, Norwegian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Czech intelligence services have all reported increased Russian hybrid warfare in Europe.

European officials have warned that Russian operations could expand to the United States. On 4 November, The Wall Street Journal reported that two incendiary devices were found on planes bound for the US. German and English intelligence services suspect the plot was of Russian origin.

Russia’s expansion of hybrid warfare operations can be linked to the Primakov Doctrine; a Russian foreign policy approach that promotes multipolarity and pragmatic military and political activity that support positive sum strategic gains.

Russia is likely to continue its hybrid operations as a means of coping with losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. If the Russian military cannot engage NATO, it can disrupt western political cohesion, economic prosperity, democratic institutions, economics, and security.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by POLITICO

• UK warning by BBC

• Russian hybrid warfare by The Strategist

• The Primakov Doctrine by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Devices on planes by WSJ

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Germany Faces Government Collapse, Snap Election As Coalition Infighting Continues

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to hold meetings with his top ministers after contradictory economic plans were leaked to the public. This is just one new example of the political infighting that has plagued the Scholz government, a parliamentary coalition between the FDP, Greens, and SPD parties.

Next week, Germany is scheduled to propose its 2025 budget, but the government infighting suggests the Scholz government is unprepared. The opposition are likely to pressure Scholz into calling for a vote of confidence. If he would fail to win a majority, he would likely dissolve his government. From there, the President and German constitutional bodies would organize snap elections.

Elections are scheduled for September 2025.

Why This Matters

Germany is currently rattled by a stagnant economy, a looming recession, a housing crisis, an energy crisis, mass immigration, crime, an a heightened security environment due to Russia and the war in Ukraine.

All of these issues have been capitalized on by center-right and far-right parties in Germany. As a result, many Germans are pivoting their support away from leftist politics, a trend also occurring across Europe.

Snap elections could see a right wing coalition, with far-right elements, form a government in the Bundestag. Germany has not had far-right politicians in leading positions in government since the NSDAP-era.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by DW

• Coverage by CNBC

• Economic meeting by US News

• Political shift in Germany by Pew Research

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Russia Looking For Diplomatic Reset With US, Ukraine Hopes For Closer Ties

On 6 November, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is open to diplomatic dialogue with President-elect Donald Trump. Peskov reminded observers that Russia still considers the US an “unfriendly country” due to it being “directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.”

Russia is hoping for a diplomatic reset despite:

• Putin having no plans to publicly congratulate Trump

• Russo-American relations being at a historic low

On 6 November, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy congratulated Trump on his victory and expressed a desire to grow deeper political, economic, and security ties with Washington.

Why This Matters

Trump’s policy on Ukraine remains controversial. Republicans are generally less supportive of massive, perpetual aid packages to Ukraine; a trademark of the Biden administration.

Trump has previously stated his goal regarding Ukraine and Russia is to end the war and “stop people from dying.”

As rumors persist that Russia is ready to begin peace negotiations with Ukraine, Moscow is likely to pursue one-sided conditions that forces Kyiv to cede contested territories like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Russia is also likely to pursue conditions in which Moscow is guaranteed Ukraine will not receive an invitation to NATO.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• Coverage by CNBC

• Russian and Ukrainian peace by RFE/RL

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Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant

On 5 November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired defense minister Yoav Gallant. The New York Times reported that the snub was a result of differences in “the prosecution of the war in Gaza.” Israeli’s have taken to the streets in protest of the decision.

It is uncertain who will replace Gallant.

Why This Matters

Gallant was reportedly pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza which may have secured the release of hostages still being held by Hamas. Gallant also called for a government inquiry into the intelligence failures that led to the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel.

These stances indicate Gallant’s position as a political and security dissident in Netanyahu’s regime. The election of Donald Trump could have also impacted Netanyahu’s decision and timing, as Trump may be more open to prosecuting an aggressive campaign against Iran’s proxies, or Iran itself.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NYT

• Coverage by The Times of Israel

End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. Please consider forwarding it to a friend or colleague who would find it interesting or useful.

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Nick