Thursday Morning Brief (5-7 August)

Good morning,

Below is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This one is pretty Middle East-heavy due to ongoing tensions. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 5 - 7 August

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Missed previous brief from this week? Sunday, Monday.

United States Expects Iranian Attacks, Backs Israel

On 4 August, the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III spoke on the phone with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Austin reaffirmed Gallant that the U.S. will support Israel from external threats such as Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis, and “other Iranian-backed terrorist groups.”

Last week, Israel conducted strikes that killed Hamas’ leader and Hezbollah’s military commander. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran vowed to retaliate.

On 5 August, President Biden met with the national security council amid concerns of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned an attack could come within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, along with an unnamed fighter squadron, are on their way to the region.

Why This Matters

Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza for more than 10 months. The recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders are likely to be cause for escalation and, as the worst-case scenario, an expansion of the conflict into other parts of the Middle East.

While the U.S. has publicly backed Israel, American leaders (as well as the G7) are eager to reduce tensions and deter a possible regional war.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Fox News

• Coverage by Al Jazeera

• Austin’s call with Gallant by the Department of Defense

UN Personnel To Be Fired For Role In Hamas Attack On Israel

On 5 August, the United Nations (UN) stated that nine UN relief and works (UNRWA) would be fired for their involvement in the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel. The UNRWA is a refugee assistance agency that works inside Palestine.

The UN’s Office of Oversight Services (OIOS) investigated the claims which were presented by Israel. Ten UNRWA members were found innocent, but nine did have a role in the attacks. The extent of their involvement remains classified, but can be requested by UN member states for release.

More than 200 UNRWA staff have died while conducting humanitarian missions since 7 October.

Why This Matters

Without any legitimate means of enforcing international law, the United Nations relies heavily on trust and cooperation to carry out it missions - especially humanitarian ones.

This event is a major breach in that trust, and suggests the UN does not have full control or oversight of its operations. It also raises the question of whether or not the UN serves as a proxy platform for bad actors.

Want To Read More?

• Release by UN

• Release by UNRWA

Americans Injured In Rocket Attack In Iraq

On 5 August, U.S. defense officials said American forces at Ain al-Asad Air Base were injured in a rocket attack. The White House has been briefed on the attack and no group has claimed responsibility. Previously, a broad group called Islamic Resistance in Iraq have conducted similar attacks in the region.

Why This Matters

Attacks on U.S. personnel stationed in Iraq and Syria have increased in recent weeks. Previously, there had been a lull in attacks. There is speculation that these attacks are part of a retaliation campaign for the Israeli assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas' top political leader in Iran.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Military .com

Russia Supplying Air Defense Systems To Iran

On 6 August, The Moscow Times reported that Russia is supplying Iran with air defense and radar systems while it prepares to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. The secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, traveled to Tehran on Monday to meet with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Why This Matters

Iran has vowed retaliation, as have Hamas and Hezbollah, for Israel’s strikes last week. Hamas and Hezbollah have already conducted attacks in response, but many are fearing a direct attack by Iran.

Apparently, even Vladimir Putin asked the Iranians to be careful in their response. He warned against targeting civilians.

As for the air defense and radar systems, Russia is likely to be supplying Iran with the S-300 or a like-variant. Iran currently uses an export version of the S-300, which was a frequent export before the war in Ukraine.

Want To Read More?

• Putin’s warning by Times of Israel

• Coverage by The Moscow Times

Joint Drills In South China Sea Prompt Chinese Response

On 7 August, the United States, Australia, Canada, and the Philippines conducted air and naval maneuvers in the South China Sea. The maneuvers were designed to promote joint cooperation and uphold international maritime law.

Shortly after the maneuvers began, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also conducted maritime patrols. The Filipino military stated that three Chinese vessels tailed the allied maneuvers.

Why This Matters

In a joint statement, the allied partners stated that they stand together to “address common maritime challenges” and their interest in “upholding international law and the rules-based order.”

China has claimed the South China Sea since the 1930s, but has been increasingly aggressive in asserting those claims.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by ABC News

• China’s claims via The Havok Journal

End Brief

This concludes your Thursday edition of The Intel Brief. Thanks for sticking around.

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See you on Sunday!

Nick