Thursday Morning Brief (6-9 January 2025)

NATO is deploying ships to deter sabotage in the Baltic Sea, Canada's PM resigned, and nations consider strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Plus more...

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning,

I hope you’ve had a good week. Welcome back to another Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s look at some major updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 6-9 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. On 6 January, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned as the Labor Party leader and Canada’s Prime Minister. The Labor Party president will hold a vote within the party to determine a successor. Opposition in parliament have committed to holding a vote of no confidence in March 2025.

2. Russia captured a key town in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. At the same time, both Russia and Ukraine conducted offensive operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Zelenskyy is in Germany today to seek more aid, with SECDEF expected to announce a final US aid package under Biden.

3. French President Macron warned that Iran’s nuclear program is approaching a point of no return. His statement was a part of a speech addressed to France’s ambassadors stationed across the globe. The EU is considering instituting sanctions and withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal. The US and Israel may be considering military strikes on Tehran’s facilities.

4. The Congressional Budget Office has assessed the US Navy’s shipbuilding plan. The Navy is likely to spend over $1 trillion over the projects lifetime in order to build and maintain the fleet it needs to carry out the US National Security Strategy. The US is currently being outpaced in shipbuilding by China.

5. NATO is deploying a 10-ship fleet to the Baltic Sea. It is intended to deter further sabotage by Russian and Chinese vessels. Partner nations will increase intelligence sharing and coordinate on maritime surveillance operations.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Resigns

Summary
On 6 January, Justin Trudeau resigned as the Labor Party leader and Canada’s Prime Minister. In a public address, Trudeau stated he asked the president of the Liberal Party to begin the process of selecting a successor. Canada’s opposition parties say they plan to hold a vote of no confidence in March when Parliament resumes.

Findings

  • Liberal Party (Acting Government): Trudeau has called on the Liberal Party president to identify a successor within the party. To do this Liberal Party members will vote.
    The goals:

    • Run the Liberal government

    • Remain competitive for October 2025 elections

  • Controversy: An article in the Toronto Sun suggests the next Liberal PM could be selected by non-citizens. Liberal Party rules require members to be “at least fourteen (14) years of age” and “ordinarily live in Canada,” with no citizenship requirement or eligibility to vote in elections.
    Previous foreign interference inquiries revealed that foreign actors, particularly from China, have engaged in large-scale election interference operations in Canada.

  • Opposition (In Parliament): Canadian opposition parties have committed to calling for a vote of no confidence when parliament convenes in March.
    The goal:

    • Pass a vote of no confidence in the Liberal Party government

    • Schedule snap elections

Why This Matters

  • Political Shift: In 2024, a rise in right-wing politics coupled with the ineffectiveness of left-leaning governments led to collapse in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Trudeau’s resignation indicates the possibility of a continued shift in political ideology in Western democracies through 2025. Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 and has joked about making Canada the “51st state” in the union.

  • Opposition: Conservative opposition candidate Pierre Poilievre has called for a “carbon tax election” rather than allowing the Liberal Party to “trick voters by swapping in another Liberal face.”

The bottom-line is that Canada is likely to have snap elections sometime after March 2025, with the Conservatives looking to be favorites.

Ukraine And Russia Launch Offensives As Trump, Negotiations Loom

Summary
On 5 January, Russian forces seized Kurakhove, a town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. At the same time, Ukraine said it carried out offensive operations in Russia’s Kursk region. The offensives come as Donald Trump, intent on ending the war via negotiations, prepares to take office.

Comment: Russia’s objective is to capture the entirety of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast which is a part of Moscow’s pre-2022 invasion claims on Ukrainian territory. By seizing Kurakhove, Russia could better support operations into Pokrovsk, the last major urban center in Donetsk held by Ukraine.

Findings

  • Kursk: Both Russia and Ukraine are conducting offensive operations in Kursk, aiming to control the territory to support options on the battlefield in addition to increasing possible negotiating power. Ukraine believes it could leverage its control of Kursk to get favorable peace conditions (i.e. return Kursk for Ukrainian territory) while Russia possessing Kursk would give it a dominant battlefield position, thereby making negotiations favorable to Putin.

  • Kurakhove: Russian troops have been trying to seize Kurakhove for months. It is a small industrial town considered to be critical to seizing Pokrovsk, itself a key city in Donetsk that could be used as a hub for supporting operations in the region.
    A Ukrainian servicemember interviewed by Al Jazeera states they lost Kurakhove “just because we didn’t have anybody there,” indicating a manpower and recruitment issue in Kyiv.

  • Battlefield Realities Strain Possible Negotiations: Donald Trump, who takes office on 20 January, is expected to draw-down aid to Ukraine and pursue peace negotiations with Russia. French President Macron said that France will remain a “solid ally” to Trump and that Kyiv must be “realistic” in negotiations, alluding to the likelihood of it losing territory. Ukraine and NATO allies want peace but view battlefield realities as a roadblock to mutually beneficial terms. Zelenskyy is relentlessly seeking aid while Biden is in office. Today, he will meet with the Ramstein Group in Germany to request more air defense assets. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III, on behalf of Biden, is expected to announce a final “substantial” aid package to Ukraine.
    On 6 January, Ukraine claimed it destroyed 3 Russian air defense positions (valued over $300 million) near Kherson, indicating Kyiv’s desire to increase operations designed to slows Russia’s southern advances.

Why This Matters
Battlefield realities will have the greatest effect on possible peace negotiations, no matter how much EU and European NATO members want to paint Trump as a divider.

While further air defense and artillery weapons systems, in addition to munitions, may allow Ukraine to protect key industrial and city centers, Kyiv’s pool of manpower is depleted. In the long-term, Russia is more likely to win a war of attrition and have an offensive breakthrough — one that could win the war for Moscow and all Ukrainian territory with it, rather than the current likelihood of a stalemate and partial loss of territory.

Bottom-line is that European leaders should urgently seek a meeting with Trump and his administration to draw up a comprehensive peace plan with unanimous support, or risk negotiations falling through due to disunity and internal conflict.

Leaders should also determine what relations they will have with Russia — i.e. will Moscow remain a hostile nation to the West, or can it be gradually integrated into the fold (and away from China, Iran, and North Korea) over time?

United States, Israel, EU Concerned By Iranian Nuclear Developments

Summary
On 6 January, French President Macron stated Iran’s uranium enrichment may pressure European leaders to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal and reinstitute sanctions against Tehran. Macron said Iran’s program is nearing “the point of no return.” Articles by The Jerusalem Post and Axios have suggested that Israel and the United States may be compelled to resort to military strikes on Iranian facilities in 2025. On 7 January, Iran International reported that the IRGC was conducting air defense drills in response to potential strikes.

Findings

  • Background: In 2015, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the EU) established the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. The deal, commonly referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program on the pretext of limited western sanctions on Tehran.
    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has documented dozens of violations of the deal both before and after the US withdrew.

  • Trump’s Iran Policy: In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal, citing its ineffectiveness and violations by Tehran. Trump has vowed to reinstitute a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran with the help of Israel in an effort to destroy Iranian proxies (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis) in addition to limiting Tehran’s nuclear weapons development.

  • Military Options: Trump is likely to open a diplomatic dialogue with Iran in his first 100 days. If a diplomatic deal — complicated by the proxy war in the region — cannot be reached then the US and Israel may conduct military strikes. The likelihood of this option is increased due to the capability being increased.
    In October 2024, Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iranian military and industrial facilities for rockets attacks on Israeli cities. In that attack, Israel effectively destroyed Iran’s national air defense systems, to include early warning, detection, and missile sites.

  • Air Defense Drills: The IRGC launched air defense drills around the Natanaz nuclear facility in central Iran. State media reported that the IRGC deployed the Russian-made S-300 missile defense system in addition to “new systems, which are unknown to the enemies.”

Why This Matters
Iran is going to be on of Trump’s primary security concerns when he takes office. Not only will he have to contend with the proxy conflicts across the Middle East, but he will need to consider what options the US has for containing Iranian nuclear technology.

The EU is considering abandoning the Iran Nuclear Deal, indicating a breakdown in relations with Iran and a western leaders finally approaching a solution-based decision point.

When asked if he would support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said it would be a “gift” to the world by the Jewish state.

Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Reuters, Axios, “Iran launches are defense drills near Natanaz nuclear site” by Iran International

CBO Assesses Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan

Summary
On 7 January, USNI News reported that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had assessed the US Navy’s 2025 shipbuilding plan which was submitted to Congress on 18 March 2024. The plan covers fiscal years 2025 to 2054.

Findings

  • Cost: CBO assessed that the plan will cost $40.1 billion a year, totaling over $1 trillion through its lifetime. For the last 10 years of shipbuilding, Congress has appropriated more money than the president has asked for.

  • Navy Size and Capabilities: The US Navy estimates it needs 381 manned vessels to make up its forces and carry out the US National Security Strategy. Under the current plan, the US Navy would shrink in 2027 (the year China says it will invade Taiwan) before growing in the 2030s.

  • Labor Issues: The US is experiencing a historic low in shipbuilding. In February 2024, USNI reported that China held 46.6% of global shipbuilding capacity compared to 0.13% in the United States.

Why This Matters
Here is the problem the US is facing: the US Navy need to build a high-cost fleet in a weak industrial environment in order to compete against China. China has the largest navy in the world (by tonnage, not necessarily quality) and is rapidly growing that force with the largest shipbuilding capability in human history.

While China chases naval parity with the United States, it is also developing the capabilities it needs to conduct ship-to-shore and assault support operations. If the US Navy cannot develop the assets it thinks it needs to carry out the National Security Strategy, it may entice Beijing to carry out its plans to invade Taiwan in 2027.

NATO Fleet Deployed To Deter Sabotage, Conduct Surveillance

Summary
On 7 January, Finnish newspaper Yle reported that by the end of this week, 10 NATO vessels will deploy to the Baltic Sea to guard undersea cables and infrastructure. Some northern European nations are also deploying vessels to safeguard their individual territorial waters. The JEF will enhance intelligence sharing and coordinate closer on surveillance operations.

Findings

  • Background: In 2024, NATO nations warned that Russia was likely to expand hybrid warfare operations against NATO members due to their support for Ukraine. From 17-18 November, the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 sabotaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. On 25 December, the Russian vessel Eagle S also sabotaged and undersea cable in the Gulf of Finland.
    After Baltic Sea states like Sweden, Estonia, Finland, and Poland said they would boost their security posture in the region, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said NATO would coordinate on a joint response.

  • NATO Fleet: Yle reports that up to 10 NATO vessels from the Baltic Fleet will deploy to the Baltic Sea through April 2025. Finland and Estonia are deploying vessels to protect their territorial waters in addition to the NATO vessels.

  • JEF: The Joint Expeditionary Forces (a military partnership between 10 northern European nations) are expanding surveillance operations and intelligence sharing related to hybrid warfare operations in the Baltic Sea.
    Under Operation Nordic Warden, the UK will also employ artificial intelligence to assist with surveillance.

Why This Matters
NATO’s decision to deploy 10 vessels in the region is a reactionary decision that is too little, too late. While the deployment may deter further acts of sabotage, their presence is mostly symbolic. Unless the group has a specific mission set to monitor ships associated with Russia’s “shadow fleet,” it is unlikely to have any significant impact.

If vessels do not suspect sabotage by a vessel, they have no basis for intercepting or raiding vessels in international waters. If the group do suspect a ship is conducting sabotage, they may intervene. Finland’s forces previously intercepted the Eagle S and discovered advanced communications surveillance equipment.

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

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See you Sunday,

Nick