Good morning,

This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are going to discuss the tense situation regarding Israel, potential changes the Europe’s migration laws, roadblocks to Russian gas reaching Europe, the possibility of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine, and the growing tensions between China and Taiwan.

Give yourself about 6 minutes to get through this one.

Reporting Period: 7-10 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

Previous briefs from this week: Pacific Weekly, Monday

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Biden And Netanyahu Hold Phone Call After Cancelling Meeting Between Defense Chiefs

Late on 8 October, a Pentagon spokesperson announced that Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, under the instruction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cancelled the meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III. Austin and Gallant were scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday to discuss Israel’s ongoing wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and to clarify Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran.

On 9 October, President Biden and Netanyahu had a phone call to discuss Israel’s security disposition. Gallant reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to retaliation, stating the IDF’s response would be “deadly, precise and above all surprising.”

The American stance remains clear: We will support Israel’s efforts in neutralizing Iran-backed terrorist proxies as well as support defensive operations.

Why This Matters

Israel's conflicts are escalating, and a strike on Iran could range from symbolic to catastrophic. Iran could also retaliate with increased lethality. As Iran increases its support for proxies throughout the Middle East, it is also advancing its nuclear capabilities. Recent reports suggest that Iran may have successfully conducted an underground nuclear test this week.

In 2019, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies released a report detailing a program called “Field Project,” which outlined Iran's plans for constructing an underground nuclear testing site.

Despite the call with Biden, the US and Israel remain at odds about how Israel should proceed. There are concerns that Israel may isolate itself from American military, intelligence, and political leaders who advocate for a more measured response. The US has opposed Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon and has urged both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue.

Iran has previously warned that continued economic, political, and military pressure could lead it to revise its defense doctrine, including its stance on nuclear weapons.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The Jerusalem Post

• Biden and Netanyahu phone call by Reuters

• Israel keeps US in the dark on retaliation strike by NBC News

• Nuclear test speculation by Euro News

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EU Leaders Push For Migration Control, Look To Increase Deportations

On 7 October, it was reported that 17 European nations co-signed a letter asking for the “expeditious” approval of legislation that would allow European governments to deport migrants who were denied asylum but remained in the EU.

Today, 10 October, various European interior ministers are meeting in Luxembourg to discuss the issue. On 17 October, the European Commission is meeting in Brussels where they will establish new guidelines for migrant deportations.

Why This Matters

The decision is viewed as a major paradigm shift in EU migration policy. The rise of conservative, center-right, and far-right governments in Europe has seen changes to how the issue is addressed. In Germany, for example, the growing popularity of the AfD party at local levels has caused the center-left government to take the issue more seriously.

The migration issue has led to various strains on the EU as an institution. In September, Germany re-introduced controls to its land borders (which is viewed as a violation of the Schengen agreement), Hungary threatened to send its migrants to Belgium, and the Netherlands asked for an opt-out clause to EU asylum rules (effectively re-nationalizing their own migration laws).

Now that the European Parliament is more right-leaning, leaders think they stand a chance of passing the Directive on Returns; a piece of legislation from 2018 that outlines the deportation process, but was never passed due to lack of support.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Euro News

• Coverage by POLITICO

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Ukraine To Cut Off Russian Gas, Will Not Extend Transit Deal

On 7 October, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to discuss future cooperation on the economy, energy, and security. In that discussion, Ukraine stated that they would not extend a gas-transit deal with Russia. The deal, which allows Russia to flow gas to European refineries through a pipeline, is set to expire on 31 December 2024.

In 2023, only 8% of Russian gas to Europe came through Ukraine. However, Slovakia and Hungary get about two-thirds of their gas from Russia.

Why This Matters

Europe’s energy needs are likely to influence their support for the war in Ukraine. From Ukraine’s perspective, it is likely that cutting off the gas flow will be used to pressure European nations into two positions:

• Increase military and economic aid to Ukraine

• Increase support for Zelenskyy’s peace plan/increase diplomatic pressure on Russia to end the war

Comment: Ukraine could also reverse their decision and keep the pipeline open. Note that Ukraine sabotaged the Nord Stream II pipeline - and act that was framed against Russia - to grow support for Ukraine in Europe.

From Europe’s perspective, securing energy needs has been a perpetual struggle. Ukraine firmly believes that Europe can find new energy partners, but with little investment and pushes for green energy, that has proven difficult.

Countries like Slovakia and Hungary have already withheld support for Ukraine and, politically, align closer to Moscow. It is likely that being cut-off from Russian gas will strengthen pro-Russian positions in Central Europe. For example, on 6 October, Robert Fico said that under his leadership Ukraine will never become a NATO member.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by RFE/RL

• No NATO membership for Ukraine by POLITICO

• Effects of no Russian gas by Reuters

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Seoul Claims North Korean Troops Are Fighting For Russia In Ukraine

On 8 October, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said the government had corroborated evidence that six North Korean officers were killed by a Ukrainian missile strike outside Donetsk last week. The minister also stated the South now views Russia and North Korea’s security relationship as a formal military alliance. The South Korean government said more North Koreans could end up fighting for Russia in the future.

Why This Matters

In June, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty which ensures each nation will provide military aid in the event they are attacked. As North Korea has accelerated its nuclear development and ballistic missile tests, they have also supplied small arms and munitions to Russia.

It is possible that North Korean military officials are in Ukraine to act as advisors, but unlikely that regular soldiers and draftees are there fighting. However, as both Russia and Ukraine are running out of fighting age males for drafts, Russia could become more desperate and willing to accept foreign conscripts.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by POLITICO

• Coverage by Fox News

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China Expected To Launch Drills, Surround Taiwan Following National Day Celebrations

On 1 October, China celebrated National Day, the anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China. In his National Day speech, paramount leader Xi Jinping emphasized the PLA's commitment to reunifying Taiwan under the banner of "One China."

Taiwan will celebrate its own National Day on 10 October. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a strong opponent of Beijing, has consistently reaffirmed Taiwan’s independence and its determination to defend itself against Chinese aggression. He is expected to deliver a speech reflecting this stance on National Day. Publications have already cautioned that China might use such rhetoric as a pretext for large-scale military operations or, in a worst-case scenario, invasion.

Why This Matters

China perceives Taiwan's independence as a direct challenge to its sovereignty. Xi Jinping has leveraged the reunification of Taiwan as a political strategy to garner support from both CCP elites and the Chinese people He has pledged to achieve this goal by 2027.

In May 2024, following Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, during which he reaffirmed Taiwan's independence, the People’s Liberation Army conducted military exercises encircling Taiwan. There is an equal chance that the PLA will carry out similar exercises on or after Taiwan's National Day.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Taipei Times

• Coverage by Reuters

• China’s previous exercise around Taiwan by CSIS

End Brief

That concludes this Thursday morning brief. I hope you enjoyed the slightly longer commentary sections.

These are certainly historic times.

Before you go, I’d love your feedback:

Enjoy your weekend and see you on Sunday,

Nick